Quincy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Hurricanes Ivan and Jeanne, 2004. 6 minutes ago, StormFollowerUSA said: Can someone answer this?. When was (if ever) the last time two back to back Major Hurricanes made Landfall in the United States as Catagory 3 or greater storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 maybe the slightest wobble nw, but either way one helluva close call for cuba. hard to tell if it will make landfall or skirt the coastline or somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 New radar image from NOAA hurricane hunter, about 15 minutes ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: maybe the slightest wobble nw, but either way one helluva close call for cuba. hard to tell if it will make landfall or skirt the coastline or somewhere in between. Based on satellite, the eye moved due west between 1915 and 2245 UTC, although the latest half-hourly frame showed some north-of-west movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Random Chaos said: That loop is from yesterday. This forum re-uses images if you plug in the same URL. Rehosted: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The embed is outdated, apparently, but the link is correct and aligns with my earlier post. Thanks to the above poster for fixing that. 2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: That loop is from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 i'm viewing this (amongst others): http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=39&longitude=-97&zoomLevel=4&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0040,0112,011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Ryan Hanrahan (@ryanhanrahan) 9/8/17, 7:49 PM Western trend undoubtedly good for Miami. NHC puts odds of hurricane force winds in Miami at 38%. This is down from earlier. #nbcct #Irma pic.twitter.com/DlfK2Q99nP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just got home from dinner, you guys weren't kidding about Irma getting its act together. Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 159 kts (183.0 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 136 kts (156.5 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, Deaglesnest said: Are the latest models posted anywhere in this thread? Are you looking for graphics or just a source? Here's a good source for many models... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I think these are the highest FL winds (159kt) since the ERC started, and tied for highest unflagged SFMR - 156mph (136kt). I think we had a 157mph earlier: 234400 2227N 07717W 7691 01815 9466 +161 //// 079153 159 136 054 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Eye is looking better defined of satellite, and collapsing on radar. Goes 16 updates are as fast and recent as the radar so I baffled. I guess time will tell who's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Dunkman said: Just got home from dinner, you guys weren't kidding about Irma getting its act together. Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 159 kts (183.0 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 136 kts (156.5 mph) Surrounding obs of 150+ kt flight level and 125+ kt SFMRs are supportive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 So is this going to landfall in Cuba or just skirt the coast? Going to be close. Seems like convection is exploding again near center. Wonder if this will start a weakening trend again being so close to Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctweather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, Hotair said: Western trend undoubtedly good for Miami. NHC puts odds of hurricane force winds in Miami at 38%. This is down from earlier. Hmm, Ryan hanraham just tweeted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 So is this going to landfall in Cuba or just skirt the coast? Going to be close. Seems like convection is exploding again near center. Wonder if this will start a weakening trend again being so close to Cuba I can't find a track along the central northern Cuba coastline this intense. Ike was inland and though large, not this strong. Bad news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 18z GEFS. Based on this and other model guidance, there's an increasing possibility of the Tampa area getting into some part of the eyewall. Tampa-St Pete area is home to a few million people, and they have some skyscrapers of their own... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: 18z GEFS. Based on this and other model guidance, there's an increasing possibility of the Tampa area getting into some part of the eyewall. Tampa-St Pete area is home to a few million people, and they have some skyscrapers of their own... Real concern also for Fort Myers, Sarasota, Naples, etc. At the least on this track they will get strong surge with the west winds behind the eye. If the eye goes over or just west, that whole stretch is in massive trouble. The Gulf side is much more surge vulnerable than the Atlantic side, and is heavily populated as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Eye is looking better defined of satellite, and collapsing on radar. Goes 16 updates are as fast and recent as the radar so I baffled. I guess time will tell who's right.Please enlighten us on how the eye is collapsing on radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Kind of an interesting structure to Irma, with one large spiral band of convection encompassing >50% of the CDO. I'm not sure I've seen something like that before in a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, ctweather said: Hmm, Ryan hanraham just tweeted that. Fixed it. Thought i had captured the whole tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I really think Tampa is in huge trouble, they are a couple west ticks away from getting slammed directly. All in all this will be a catastrophic storm there's no denying that. The storm surge on the west coast will be tremendous and the entire state will be impacted. Also poor Cuba they're going to have some disasterous impacts as well, tremendous performance by the Ukmet model on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just got home from dinner, you guys weren't kidding about Irma getting its act together. Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 159 kts (183.0 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 136 kts (156.5 mph)Indeed. And that was in the NW EW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z GEFS. Based on this and other model guidance, there's an increasing possibility of the Tampa area getting into some part of the eyewall. Tampa-St Pete area is home to a few million people, and they have some skyscrapers of their own... Tampa will not get an onshore flow until Irma is north of them. It will have weekend a lot by then if it is over land, but there are 3 members clipping the coast near the bay which is their worst case scenario track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I really think Tampa is in huge trouble, they are a couple west ticks away from getting slammed directly. All in all this will be a catastrophic storm there's no denying that. The storm surge on the west coast will be tremendous and the entire state will be impacted. Also poor Cuba they're going to have some disasterous impacts as well, tremendous performance by the Ukmet model on this. I keep hearing tremendous storm surge potential in Tampa but the highest I can find anyone claiming is 10-15 feet. I know that's a lot of water but does that mean zones B and C would be OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Hotair said: I keep hearing tremendous storm surge potential in Tampa but the highest I can find anyone claiming is 10-15 feet. I know that's a lot of water but does that mean zones B and C would be OK? It is my opinion that additional evacuations will be ordered should this western track continue to look more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Per Cuban radar the western eyewall is now making landfall in Camaguey province. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Looks to me like part of the eye wall is on north cuba's coastline, however it also looks like it is strengthening and in a few hours the coastline will pull south further away. This will be interesting to watch tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Funky eye structure spinning around on GOES-16. Mesovortex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Asking for family in PuntaGorda/Charlotte Harbor are of Ft Myers... I'm getting worried about surge for them. They are on canals. Anyone have any estimates on surge heights in that area that I can pass on to get them prepared. Sorry for the sort of frowned upon IMBY post but I thought here would be my best chance for solid info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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