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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


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  On 9/10/2017 at 12:45 PM, jbenedet said:

Irma is a different beast right now; you aren't comparing apples to apples. The wind hurricane/ts wind field is enormous right now, and the extremely broad hurricane/TS impacts --to my mind--will surpass Sandy...

Irma is like Sandy's more-tropical cousin...

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We're about to have a bigly wind event on the peninsula mixed with Ike type surge. This is gonna be bad.  

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  On 9/10/2017 at 12:47 PM, MattPetrulli said:

We're about to have a bigly wind event on the peninsula mixed with Ike type surge. This is gonna be bad.  

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Yes, and just like with Sandy, many people --at the time it was moving in--were underestimating it, saying "low winds/weak radar appearance". The whole eastern half of the system was largely dry. Then when it was all said and done, second most expensive natural disaster in US history.

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  On 9/10/2017 at 12:38 PM, CoastalWx said:

I haven't seen any video from those keys getting hit. I bet those keys got smoked pretty good. But it's also not 185mph sustained.

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Yeah, anybody who is expecting to see Florida pics or video remotely close to what we saw from the Caribbean is going to be disappointed.

Most Floridians are not going to see much past gusts to 100mph.  That's 50-75mph less than those Islands.  Big difference there. 

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  On 9/10/2017 at 12:51 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, anybody who is expecting to see Florida pics or video remotely close to what we saw from the Caribbean is going to be disappointed.

Most Floridians are not going to see much past gusts to 100mph.  That's 50-75mph less than those Islands.  Big difference there. 

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The 0z Euro has gusts all along the west coast of Fla 130-150 mph range, from Naples to Tampa. The euro won't be wrong.

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  On 9/10/2017 at 12:51 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, anybody who is expecting to see Florida pics or video remotely close to what we saw from the Caribbean is going to be disappointed.

Most Floridians are not going to see much past gusts to 100mph.  That's 50-75mph less than those Islands.  Big difference there. 

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it truly is incredible what those islands experienced.  because there's not a million people there it doesn't get the attention it should.  i can't imagine what it must have been like to have to be literally in the eye of a legitimate cat 5.  i mean that's just incredible.  anyway, not trying to clutter up the thread comparing what's now to what's done because either way irma is going to be destructive.

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  On 9/10/2017 at 1:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

Those will be too high in general.

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I disagree. Irma will phase with that shortwave to the northwest and her forward speed will accelerate, with the right front quadrant of the eye wall right along the coast. It's a perfect combination to maximize the wind gust potential.

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  On 9/10/2017 at 1:04 PM, jbenedet said:

I disagree. Irma will phase with that shortwave to the northwest and her forward speed will accelerate, with the right front quadrant of the eye wall right along the coast. It's a perfect combination to maximize the wind gust potential.

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130-150 all along the coast? They have a hard time with that on the keys. I dunno..that's a bit aggressive. 

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  On 9/10/2017 at 1:07 PM, 87storms said:

any ideas which models have performed the best so far for the keys as far as location/intensity?  the 06z gfs track looks pretty reasonable and some of the reports are that it might be a notch east of the euro right now.

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The euro looks a bit too far west. However, sometimes these things meander and then all of the sudden wobble and head in the forecasted direction.

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