MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:37 AM, salbers said: Still holding NNW movement up until 0034 UTC. Expand Motion also evident via KBYX radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:39 AM, winterymix said: We have the better part of an entire day before shear stops the re-intensification potential. Expand Up by Tampa, shear will become a hindrance on Irma and weaken it, which is reflected in the NHC projection, but beforehand it won't do too much. Strong hurricanes can also fight it off for a while. By the time it gets to near Tampa it will be way too late to weaken it meaningfully enough. Look how much Katrina weakened before landfall and how catastrophic it still was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:39 AM, Amped said: That cod goes 16 map is skewed, it's more of a NW motion Expand Good point, I was thinking about 330 bearing. If it is a Mercator map that could make it more like 320. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 All downhill from here in the Keys. Likely will be some major destruction there from surge+wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I assume these are wind gusts? I am asking because that seems awfully high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:42 AM, AcePuppy said: 00z Expand Horrible, pretty much a worst case track fromNaples up to Tampa. The eyewall will rake that whole stretch on the consensus track there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:38 AM, donsutherland1 said: From looking at Irma's circulation from another perspective, I suspect that the hurricane may need to reach 23.5°N latitude before its winds strengthen. It appears that the turn north is in its early stages. Finally, I remain concerned that the ECMWF's 24-hour error of around 25 miles suggests a risk that Irma could pass to the west of Tampa bringing about a large storm surge along with severe winds and heavy rain. Expand Well Don, Irma has certainly enjoyed staying on the Western edge of most guidance so I would not be surprised to see the Euro's 24-hour margin of error come into play. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The 00z hurricane models are a bad sign for Tampa and the Big Bend of FL. Most tracks stay just offshore all the way to the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:45 AM, Philadelphia Snow said: I assume these are wind gusts? I am asking because that seems awfully high. Expand No those are velocities above the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamGD Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:45 AM, jm1220 said: Horrible, pretty much a worst case track fromNaples up to Tampa. The eyewall will rake that whole stretch on the consensus track there. Expand Most of those models are early run ones not the ones they use the most for storms but i want to see the euro 00 and gfs 00 but really anymore the radar is our best model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:45 AM, Philadelphia Snow said: I assume these are wind gusts? I am asking because that seems awfully high. Expand yes, vaca key reporting 42 knts sustained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Reddit live thread. Another resource.https://www.reddit.com/live/zkadef2ttzql/Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamGD Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:42 AM, AcePuppy said: 00z Expand Also remember this was before the turn. Now with the turn really looking NNW i want to see there next set of runs but again radar is our best model now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:45 AM, jm1220 said: Horrible, pretty much a worst case track fromNaples up to Tampa. The eyewall will rake that whole stretch on the consensus track there. Expand The hook back offshore is deadly for tampa. Also that is the opposite of the 18z map. Now all models are to the west of the official forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:45 AM, Philadelphia Snow said: I assume these are wind gusts? I am asking because that seems awfully high. Expand It's the speed the air is moving, but not at the ground. At .5 degree from that KBYX radar site to Marathon is roughly 2600' up. http://radarscope.tv/hrf_faq/superres-base-velocity/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 BTW, crap ton of NDBC stations not reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:49 AM, williamGD said: Most of those models are early run ones not the ones they use the most for storms but i want to see the euro 00 and gfs 00 but really anymore the radar is our best model. Expand So far, Irma has been moving almost on top of the 12z ECMWF track. It looks like Naples and Tampa will be hit very hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:49 AM, williamGD said: Most of those models are early run ones not the ones they use the most for storms but i want to see the euro 00 and gfs 00 but really anymore the radar is our best model. Expand ?? So you are tossing the actual hurricane guidance in favor of the global models for a short range TC forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 12:51 AM, Amped said: The hook back offshore is deadly for tampa. Also that is the opposite of the 18z map. Now all models are to the west of the official forecast. Expand I'm not seeing how the eye goes east of Tampa at this point unless it goes due north. And no guidance shows that happening. Horrible news for Tampa Bay. It might be weakening at that point but the damage will have been done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 125 MPH, 932 MB at 9 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks like about 80% of Key West is without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 i don't see this missing the keys. they're in a horrible spot right now. last few frames, irma is clearly moving nnw on a beeline for key west. of course, anything can happen, but if the trend is real the eye is heading right in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 How would the surge projection for Tampa change with the center going just west instead of over/east? I saw that simulation that had 25+ feet of water with a cat 5 moving NNE, but this isn't quite that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 1:05 AM, eekuasepinniW said: Expand That looks like the inner eyewall might be on its last gasp now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamGD Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 the last few frames of the radar i cant see much of a west movement only north and slow. Anyone see much west movement in the last 20 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 There's been a ton of "NW turn" hallucinations in the last 24 hours but those last few radar frames feels like the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The next 18 hours should be bombs away....I think Irma gains 20mph and falls 30mb+ before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 New SPC outlook has a 10% tornado risk tonight for Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Palm Beach area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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