Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 There's the usual caveat of being almost a week out, but all I'm doing is filling up the banter thread with Irma posts, so why not. I have been following this closely (partly because I know people in the path) so I feel like I am well versed in the various possibilities at this point. It looks increasingly like Irma will skirt or perhaps make landfall in Florida, then possibly make landfall farther up the coast in Georgia or the Carolinas. A run up the Florida peninsula vs being a bit offshore matters a little bit for our purposes, but not a ton. An offshore track with landfall in GA/SC would likely result in somewhat stronger winds making it farther inland, closer to our area. Because of where Irma is expected to hit and the general motion after landfall, the area most likely to experience impacts from Irma is parts of Ohio and Kentucky. The farther south and east you are, the greater the chance. This would include not only rain, but some wind as well. All things being equal, systems this large and intense tend to spin down a bit slower than smaller, more compact systems. There are multiple scenarios for what happens after landfall. Generally speaking, a trough could be somewhere in Canada or the Lakes around this time and eventually kick out or absorb Irma's remnants. Exactly how this plays out is the big question as models have been all over the place with the depth/timing of the trough. If the trough comes in quicker/shallower, then it could tend to kick Irma's remnants east and potentially reduce the area of this region that is affected...or possibly even miss interacting with Irma if it's too shallow. If it comes in a little slower and is more amplified, then we could end up with a system that actually reenergizes a bit and has more widespread affects in the region. Way too early to have confidence in any of these scenarios. Anyway, enough rambling for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Made me look. This morning's Euro runs the remnant right up the middle of FL and as a result, dying a faster death as it reaches Memphis. Meanwhile, the GFS has a similar track to yesterday, except it delivers the goods (wind and rain) to KY, SW MO, Southern IN and IL and most of OH with the low remaining sub 1000 until reaching Western KY before dying a slow death, probably thanks to its' depiction of sliding off of the coast until reaching GA. The Canadian remains no dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Made me look. This morning's Euro runs the remnant right up the middle of FL and as a result, dying a faster death as it reaches Memphis. Meanwhile, the GFS has a similar track to yesterday, except it delivers the goods (wind and rain) to KY, SW MO, Southern IN and IL and most of OH with the low remaining sub 1000 until reaching Western KY before dying a slow death, probably thanks to its' depiction of sliding off of the coast until reaching GA. The Canadian remains no dice. Would be nice to get a well timed trough to get something a little better/widespread, but recent models not biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 It's like wishing for a phase in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Yuge cloud field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 So lucky, going to be in the UP at the time, a nice shortwave ridge squeezes in there and I get spectacular weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 looks like models are trending for little if any effect here....maybe a quick line of showers before it spins to it's death in KY. Would have liked to have a good day of rain next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 Some west trend over the past couple days. As things stand now, lighter rain potential into the southern Lakes with better chances farther south, especially south of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Some west trend over the past couple days. As things stand now, lighter rain potential into the southern Lakes with better chances farther south, especially south of I-70. Wow, even gets this far northwest now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 Pretty good wind fields aloft in the Ohio Valley. Dealing with a inversion though so not likely to mix down very well. Enough to be noticeably breezy but not an Ike situation that had that swath of 70-90 mph gusts in areas that got some sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/live-map-track-hurricanes-irma-katia-jose-head-land/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Outer cloud bands all the way into Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2017 Author Share Posted September 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Outer cloud bands all the way into Canada Water vapor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2017 Author Share Posted September 11, 2017 Would be nice to get more rain than what this will deliver. Dry month in most areas with my corner of northwest IN among the drier spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 Decent band of rain training over me for the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 13, 2017 Author Share Posted September 13, 2017 Got some rain overnight/earlier in the morning. Looks like a bit of an enhanced band set up around I-55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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