Hurricane Katia

[stormtracker]

Poor Katia, nobody cares about her

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Katia Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KATIA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 96.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

A tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the Mexican
state of Veracruz later today.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Katia was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 96.3 West. Katia is
moving toward the east-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and
the system should gradually turn southeastward during the next 24
hours and continue moving in this general direction through
Thursday.  A turn toward the southwest is forecast on Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Katia is expected to
remain offshore of Mexico through Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

[wxmx]

I care a little. Good chance it will become a hurricane before landfall. It has at least 72 hours before landfall, and it will have at least 24 hours of favorable upper level environment. It's peak season, and the GoM is simmering, you'll see <-80 C top clouds temps with Katia. I don't even discard a period of RI during those 24 hours of good atmospheric conditions. Thinking cat 1 at landfall.

[wxmx]

Recon shows a much stronger storm than what the 11am advisory analyzed. 994mb and 56FL/52SFMR. This is a 50 kts TS already (my estimate).

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

19 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Recon shows a much stronger storm than what the 11am advisory analyzed. 994mb and 56FL/52SFMR. This is a 50 kts TS already (my estimate).

Could easily go through RI. I wouldn't be shocked if this thing makes major. 

[wxmx]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Could easily go through RI. I wouldn't be shocked if this thing makes major. 

The possibility is there...not very high right now, until it consolidates a good eyewall. But taking into account it's organizing pretty nicely under some not very favorable shear, and that is forecasted to improve, I think there's some chance it can RI to major. Right now the SSTs and the thermodynamics are there, especially with that outflow channel to it's northeast which is evacuating upper air at a pretty good pace.

[the ghost of leroy]

8 minutes ago, wxmx said:

The possibility is there...not very high right now, until it consolidates a good eyewall. But taking into account it's organizing pretty nicely under some not very favorable shear, and that is forecasted to improve, I think there's some chance it can RI to major. Right now the SSTs and the thermodynamics are there, especially with that outflow channel to it's northeast which is evacuating upper air at a pretty good pace.

you should convince josh to chase this.  he'd have it all to himself instead of competing with guys like reed timmer for irma footage.

[wxmx]

2 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

you should convince josh to chase this.  he'd have it all to himself instead of competing with guys like reed timmer for irma footage.

Thought about that actually. Everybody and their grandmother will be in Miami for Irma. But it's hard to compete with a current cat 5. Maybe tomorrow?

[wxmx]

71FL/66SFMR, 992.2 extrapolated, though the last pass was 994, which matched the dropsonde. Also, they are flying at 925mb, quite low. Hurricane Katia?

[wxmx]

Quote

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017

An Air Force reconnaissance plane just investigated Katia and found
a much better organized tropical cyclone with a partial eyewall. It
also measured a flight-level wind of 71 kt and 66 kt with the SFMR.
Based on these data and the improved satellite presentation, Katia
is upgraded to a hurricane with 65 kt winds.

The upper-level wind pattern is becoming more favorable, and that
can be observed by the expansion of the outflow. All models continue
to favor intensification, and in fact, the SHIPS RI index gives a
63 percent chance of a 30-kt wind increase in 24 hours. The NHC
forecast calls for strengthening but at this time is not as high as
some of the guidance.

Katia is embedded within very weak steering currents, and it is now
moving slowly toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The hurricane is
forecast to meander in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next
day or two. After that time the global models develop a ridge over
the northern Gulf of Mexico and this flow pattern will steer Katia
southwestward toward the state of Veracruz. The NHC forecast is
basically on top of the multi-model consensus and follows the trend
of the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

Given the upward intensity trend and the forecast track toward
the coast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch
for a portion of the coast of the state of Veracruz.  Katia is also
forecast to bring torrential rains primarily to the state of
Veracruz during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 21.7N  95.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 21.5N  94.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 21.3N  94.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 21.1N  95.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 20.9N  95.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 19.5N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

[mfgmfg]

Odds she re-emerges and re-organizes in the Pacific?

[yoda]

Near major at 48... dissipated at 96... thats fast

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017

Satellite images indicate that Katia has a small symmetric central
dense overcast with very deep convection near the center.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have risen since the past
advisory and, after accounting for the low bias earlier, support an
initial wind speed of 70 kt.  With wind shear forecast to drop while
the hurricane remains over very warm waters, it is puzzling to see
that most of the regional hurricane guidance is only showing a small
increase in wind speed. Although this area of the Gulf of Mexico is
known for significant upwelling, Katia is a rather small tropical
cyclone that shouldn't stir up as much cool water from below as most
hurricanes would. After considering the potential upwelling and the
extremely favorable upper-level environment, the intensity forecast
is raised from the previous one, but could be conservative since the
SHIPS RI index is showing roughly a 50 percent of rapid
intensification during the next 24 hours.

Katia is drifting east-southeastward, caught in a light steering
area between two ridges.  The hurricane should gradually turn
southwestward during the next 24 hours, then accelerate after that
time due to a strengthening ridge over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.  The official forecast is very similar to the previous one,
on the south side on the dynamical model consensus TVCN in the
direction of the corrected consensus.

Given the latest wind radii forecast, the government of Mexico has
extended the hurricane watch northward to Cabo Rojo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 21.7N  94.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 21.5N  94.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 21.3N  94.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 21.1N  95.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 20.6N  96.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 19.0N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[mfgmfg]

AF recon arriving soon

[wxmx]

3/4's of an eyewall already present according to an MW image from a few hours ago. It's a rather small cyclone, and the upper level winds are slowly turning more favorable, so the chances for RI and major'ing are creeping up.

[wxmx]

Let's see what recon finds, but it appears to be stronger and with a better core structure than earlier. That's a potentially tiny eye in a tiny cane

[hlcater]

These tiny, tiny hurricanes can throw some curveballs. Because of their size, they can spin up really quickly a-la charley. I also wouldn't be surprised to see this make a run at major status given the tendency for storms to strengthen down there, solid outflow to the N/NE, lessening shear, and warm SSTs. The ballerina analogy definitely applies here.

[Morris]

983 mb. SFMR of 70 kts. 80 kts FL.

[Amped]

Still a CAT1 with a 983mb pressure 75mph winds. Small storms like this can archive CAT3 with pressures in the upper 960s. The Diurnal max is approaching and a big convective blast can strengthen small storms rather fast like the HMON is showing. 

I think 3 major hurricanes at once would be a new record, but I don't even know how to look that one up.

[wxmx]

Too bad the recon ended when eye was popping out and microwave showed a nearly complete eyewall. It's probably gonna enter an RIC the next 24 hours

[wxmx]

Too bad that comms are very spotty with the recon mission. But looking at visible, it looks pretty good and at least it looks it's gradually strengthening. Since upper level conditions are slowly improving, I can easily see central pressures lowering into the 960s (or less if it enters a RIC), and since it's a rather small cane, it would support a major prior to landfall.

[the ghost of leroy]

yeah, that thing in the 960's would be really nice.

[wxmx]

Apparently Katia is off course...well west, and jogging almost to the NW in the last 2 hours. Props to the CMC and Ukmet if they verify their northern track better than the rest of the models

[wxmx]

The way is off track is quite rare from an NHC track in the lower latitudes. What difference can it make in terms of intensity prospects? Not much probably, but a few things to consider

 

• Shear is slightly higher up north
• The coast distance to the mountains is larger
• Due to the coast shape, the trek is longer, meaning a little more time over water

Mixed signals, probably compensating each other.

[mfgmfg]

High surf and small craft advisories in effect for southern Texas.

[wxmx]

Pulled a Don

[Chicago Storm]

Katia is weakening rapidly as landfall approaches...

NHC 7PM advisory had 972mb 105mph, and recon just found 997mb and ~55kts FL an hour later.

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, wxmx said:

Pulled a Don

just #BOCthings

[Juliancolton]

There's the Atlantic we all know and love.

[Windspeed]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT
HURRICANE KATIA (AL132017)
5 – 9 September 2017

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132017_Katia.pdf