Predicting Hurricane Deflection

[DNA]

How can we reliably estimate how far this pressure front over the southern US will push hurricane Irma? (9.5.2017) It appears to me if we know the velocity of the front over the past few days, we should be able to predict practically the deflection of a hurricane? Any experiences with this, anamolies? Any predictions?

All replies much appreciated, this is my first post, but I've always had an endless interest in the amazing mechanisms of weather. 

[calm_days]

Viewed together it seems like these water vapor loops may interest you; the beginnings of more visible interactions between the systems can be seen, and also the current width and angle of the trough. 

The second image shows more of the upper low in Canada and its trough extending through the West Atlantic, and Katia, but not all of Irma.  Some of the southern parts of the trough are understandably made more visible by the outflow from Katia.  

I am very much an amateur; however it is clear that what you are saying is of definite interest.  The ULL is huge and the front that moved through the east coast region was and is very sharp.  It is already quite far offshore compared to other circumstances where a westward travelling cyclone is approaching the CONUS as a trough/ULL system is exiting to the east.  The trough of this strong ULL can only retreat so much, and the angle of the trough would still determine much of the path of Irma even after they begin to merge.  The model solutions which contain travel far inland and relatively quickly would require that Irma merges, and then subsequntly reindividuates itself from this ULL/trough system on the other side which would be unusual to say the least. 

The outer boundary of the trough is already offshore most of Florida, and, the deep ULL continues its northeast motion at a substantial rate. 

 

 

 

[calm_days]

https://s26.postimg.org/j6s7qhh55/0809_24iloop_enl_edd.gif

^^ This is too large to embed thankfully because it is a large file size: it is a very clear zoomed in loop from NWS EDD (Experimental data display).  I think this is maybe an improvement on the above water vapor loops but does not include the map underimage as the idea with making this image is to display the exact features you are describing finding to be of note.   

Here is the full version of the images as a loop, not zoomed in.

Here the magnitude of the many features accompanying the Atlantic tropical cyclones at the moment can really be seen.

https://s26.postimg.org/l1528845l/0809_24iloop_edd.gif