Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Jose looks menacing on the Euro at 168. Then at 192, it gets weird and darts NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 2 hrs · 9/10/17 @ 1:45 PM: Check in on Hurricane Jose... Jose is still a Category 4 hurricane, and is moving NW to the east of the Bahamas. Due to unique atmospheric steering winds, Jose will meander and make a loop this week. Much uncertainty remains in Jose's forecast into next weekend, but we should keep and eye on him. Check back for further updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 12z on 9/10 for Monday 9/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 11, 2017 Author Share Posted September 11, 2017 Yeah seems to want to turn out at this point but a lot can change and the setup could at the least let him get close enough to give the OBX a scare..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Gotta love the JMA model. Had it hitting the east coast of Florida around 170 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Read where UKIE 0z has Jose hitting Miami, GFS hitting NC Coast. To tired to look from chasing Irma, but appears we have another one to chase for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 06zGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 These were questions I asked on Friday morning. "Here is the novice dumb question of the morning. If the Bermuda high is strong enough to keep Irma moving west, why is it not pushing Jose in the same direction? How can Jose make the turn north so much sooner than Irma?" I'm thinking the questions are still applicable. It looks like that high is still blocking Jose too, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 There is little change to the overall forecast philosophy, as Jose completes a slow anticyclonic loop over open waters for the next 72 hours. The rather odd forecast track is the result of a mid-level high to the east of Jose which will build south of Jose in 24 hours, then west of Jose in about 48 hours, and north of Jose between days 3 and 4. The guidance initially showed this would be a rather tight loop, but has opened it up considerably in the past few runs with the GFS and consensus models beginning to lean toward the ECMWF idea. Have adjusted the forecast track to be closer to the TVCN. By days 4 and 5, Jose should track toward the west- northwest with a bit faster forward motion as the aforementioned mid-level high strengthens to the northeast of Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 12z UKMET Landfalls JOSE again into south Central East Florida. Second run in a row Ukmet has done this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 35 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: 12z UKMET Landfalls JOSE again into south Central East Florida. Second run in a row Ukmet has done this. Can't discount it, it did quite well with Irma and Harvey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 6m6 minutes ago 12z GEFS #Jose tracks shifted west compared to 6z. Close pass at least to SE coast possible this weekend early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 30 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 6m6 minutes ago 12z GEFS #Jose tracks shifted west compared to 6z. Close pass at least to SE coast possible this weekend early next week. Great! Need this to be a fish storm! But not trending that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Euro still stays pretty far off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro still stays pretty far off the coast True but even it shifted a good bit west from the 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 My biggest question is will Jose actually survive the loop it's going to try to make? If it does, it could slide up the coast but I'm still not sure it will actually survive. GFS and EURO differ greatly on the strength of Jose basically the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 RAH discussion this afternoon... It's important to note that Hurricane Jose will be of interest in this time frame with the system likely making its closest approach to NC around Monday. The 12Z runs of the deterministic GFS and ECMWF generally lie on the western edge of the most recent ensemble runs although its worth noting that the 12Z GEFS shifted west a good bit. Still no reason to get too worried but its worth watching, as a coastal scraper is possible. -Blaes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Newport/Morehead City Sunday and Monday...While the operational GFS shows Jose making a close pass to the Outer Banks, most all of the other guidance including the ensembles keep Jose well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 For some reason, I really like RAH using the term 'coastal scrapper'. I understand it's a technical discussion, but sometimes hearing a layman's term here and there is refreshing. I'd wager most tropical cyclones that effect NC are coastal scrappers that never make landfall, but come just close enough to make us keep an eye on him. Anyway, we'd better keep an eye on Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 UKMET for 3rd run in a row consistently drives Jose into central Florida this weekend. Pretty strong cane as well. Ukmet cooked all the other models goose with Irma, so we shall see who gives next few runs. EURO weakens ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 Make that Quatro for the Ukie. Another Florida landfall and less than a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 Local mets here aren't worried about Jose affecting anyone in NC. Of course, they said Irma could bring some showers to the eastern facing outer banks, and I think it turned out to give them a little more than that. So, grain of salt taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 Since the Ukie is on an island by itself, I see why everyone would expect it to go out to sea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 6 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Since the Ukie is on an island by itself, I see why everyone would expect it to go out to sea! The thing is the UKMET showed into Cuba to Florida from a week away with Irmawhile all the other models showed east of Florida into North Carolina and we all know which model nearly verified so looking at things I feel the current motion is more in line with the UKMET than any of the other models so it's going to be a long week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 9 hours ago, avalanche said: Local mets here aren't worried about Jose affecting anyone in NC. Of course, they said Irma could bring some showers to the eastern facing outer banks, and I think it turned out to give them a little more than that. So, grain of salt taken. There wasnt much rain at all from Irma in the OBX, Down south on the Crystal Coast /Wilmington, def had rain but not the OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2017 Author Share Posted September 13, 2017 8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Since the Ukie is on an island by itself, I see why everyone would expect it to go out to sea! GFS shifted back west a couple hundred miles, models usually handle loops poorly....so I wouldnt look at the models to close until Thursday once the storm starts to head west.....still it doesnt look like a threat outside of the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Confidence in Jose`s track further decreases this weekend as a result of uncertainty in the evolution of Irma`s de-amplifying mid-level remnants progressing toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. As a result, 00Z GFS/ECMWF guidance diverge significantly w/regard to Jose`s track this weekend and early next week. The GFS suggests a meandering track close to the NC/DELMARVA coast while the ECMWF suggests a track much further to the east, near Bermuda. At this time will continue to follow the official NHC track, with Jose tracking well offshore the Carolina coast. -Vincent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Euro is funny, loops the storm a few times off the coast and has it heading NW towards New Jersey at the end of the run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Surfs gonna be up this weekend! Jose gonna make his presence felt on obx. Jury still out imo if its indirectly or directly. And The Hurricane season just keeps on giving with more storms to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.