Tropical Storm Jose

[SnoSki14]

A lot of blocking continues, no surprise that Euro is hoping towards the Ukmet/Gfs idea. 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Ukie into Florida 2 runs in a row is telling

It was very good with Irma

 

The UKMET ended up being too far South and West, however it was at one point the only model showing much interacting with Cuba, so I'll give it a B+.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Ukie into Florida 2 runs in a row is telling

It was very good with Irma

 

This is the sort of posts that warrant a warning.  Using an op run for a system out 9-10 days is reckless. This is why we use Ensembles. 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I don't know about likely. There's not a lot of ensemble support.

The ECWMF brings Jose across Nova Scotia. Huge range of possible solutions exist as per climatology.

[NJwx85]

I'm not sure about the correlation between the NAO and tropical systems, especially in September, however if this was Winter, a quick drop and then rebound of the NAO is usually a good sign for Noreasters.

[MJO812]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

This is the sort of posts that warrant a warning.  Using an op run for a system out 9-10 days is reckless. This is why we use Ensembles. 

Of course I know that

So we can't talk about the operationals a week out?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Of course I know that

So we can't talk about the operationals a week out?

That's not what you are doing though.  You used the Ukie verification on Irma as evidence that Jose will do the same.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

And we know the Euro performs the best based on statistical evidence.

[USCG RS]

While my interest is peaked, I'll be more obliged once he finishes the loop and the sheer relaxes. He's under 25 knots of sheer and is getting pummeled. Once Jose finishes the loop and moves on, combined with the sheer relaxing, well see what models show and if Jose can recover strength.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

And we know the Euro performs the best based on statistical evidence.

Yes but it isn't always right though

 

[MJO812]

18z models

[bobbutts]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

18z models

That TABS looks drunk yet keeps coming back to similar positions with the rest of the cluster.  I guess it's similar to BAM model in that it only considers a slice of atmosphere.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, bobbutts said:

That TABS looks drunk yet keeps coming back to similar positions with the rest of the cluster.  I guess it's similar to BAM model in that it only considers a slice of atmosphere.

Some models look like the Ukie

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, looking back at the climatology statistics provided based on Jose's 11 am position, approximately 1/3 of the storms that did not make U.S. landfall wound up making landfall in either Nova Scotia or Newfoundland and Labrador. So, the possibility of landfall in Canada will also be something that may need to be watched.

[NJwx85]

12Z EPS MEAN

[Superstorm93]

FWIW 00z UKMET Ens

Will post the 12z when out. Should look very similar given the OP. 

[csnavywx]

As a whole, 12z EPS members showed a definite westward shift from 00Z. Will have to keep a close eye on this. Still a large spread after just 3 days, so a ton of uncertainty.

[csnavywx]

This trend of a deeper trough over the western CONUS at D5-D8 is also a concern as this will amplify the downstream ridge and affect Jose's track.

[donsutherland1]

Some historic climatology statistics for reference regarding Hurricane Jose:
 
Since 1851, there were 44 hurricanes that tracked within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s 5 pm position (26.4°N 69.2°W) during August or September. Select statistics follow.

U.S. Landfall: 20%
No U.S. Landfall: 80%

Of the 9 hurricanes that made landfall, first U.S. landfall locations were as follows:

Alabama: 1 (11%)
Florida: 3 (33%) – all in southeast Florida
New York: 1 (11%)
North Carolina: 3 (33%)
Virginia: 1 (11%)

In terms of intensity, the landfalls were as follows:
Category 1: 3 (33%)
Category 2: 3 (33%)
Category 3: 3 (22%)
Category 4: 0 (  0%)
Category 5: 1 (  5%)

Of the 35 storms that did not make U.S. landfall, 13 (37%) made landfall in Canada. Of those 13 storms, landfall in Canada was as follows:

Newfoundland and Labrador: 7 (54%)
Nova Scotia: 6 (46%)

Overall, Jose’s current northward trajectory has put the hurricane in a less favorable spot for U.S. landfall. However, Jose remains well-modeled to make an anti-cyclonic loop in coming days. At the end of that loop, Jose will likely be in a more favorable spot for U.S. landfall. Such landfall remains uncertain, but is well within the realm of climatology and some of the solutions shown on the guidance (UKMET and GFS). The ECWMF shows Jose making Nova Scotia landfall. In short, it's too soon to discount any of the solutions given model errors and historic climatology.

[RU848789]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some updated historical climatology numbers for Jose's 11 am position (25.5°N 69.1°W):

Criteria:
● Timeframe: 1851-present
● August-September hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s position

U.S. Landfall: 30%
No U.S. Landfall: 70%

Of the 15 hurricanes that made landfall, 93% made their first landfall on the U.S. East Coast. 40% of the hurricanes making U.S. landfall made their first U.S. landfall in North Carolina and 20% made their first U.S. landfall in Florida (all in Southeast Florida). 53% of the hurricanes made their first U.S. landfall as major hurricanes.

 

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Criteria:
● Timeframe: 1851-present
● August-September hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s forecast position of 26.5°N 74.5°W

U.S. Landfall: 56%
No U.S. Landfall: 44%

All 25 of the landfalling hurricanes in the sample made landfall on the U.S. East Coast. The most common areas of landfall were:

Florida: 28% (6/7 of which were major hurricanes)
North Carolina: 24%
South Carolina: 20% (4/5 of which were major hurricanes)
Virginia to New England: 20%

60% of the hurricanes that made U.S. landfall did so as major hurricanes on their first U.S. landfall.

Don - either you have an error in here or I'm missing something.  The posts were both made after the 11 am position was known, yet in the first post you say,

U.S. Landfall: 30%
No U.S. Landfall: 70%

And in the second post you say, 

U.S. Landfall: 56%
No U.S. Landfall: 44%

Can you clarify?  Thanks.

[Kilgore Trout]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

Don - either you have an error in here or I'm missing something.  The posts were both made after the 11 am position was known, yet in the first post you say,

U.S. Landfall: 30%
No U.S. Landfall: 70%

And in the second post you say, 

U.S. Landfall: 56%
No U.S. Landfall: 44%

Can you clarify?  Thanks.

He ran the other one based on the projected location of Jose after the loop to loop, which is further south than it's current location, hence the higher percentage of going onshore.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

Don - either you have an error in here or I'm missing something.  The posts were both made after the 11 am position was known, yet in the first post you say,

U.S. Landfall: 30%
No U.S. Landfall: 70%

And in the second post you say, 

U.S. Landfall: 56%
No U.S. Landfall: 44%

Can you clarify?  Thanks.

The latter post was in response to a question about what the climatology would be for a position forecast by the National Hurricane Center at 120 hours. It was hypothetical based only on the NHC's position verifying. The earlier message with the 30% landfall was based on Jose's actual 11 am position.

[forecasterjack]

Jose's steering flow backs significantly with height. The stronger the storm is, the farther SW it will track and the greater threat it will post to the US. Link to free ECMWF data: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/wind-925mb/20170915-0600z.html change levels via menus left of image. 

[Santa Claus]

The infrared map, with the pulsing amorphous purple convection and robust outflow, makes Jose look like a giant jellyfish.  If not for recent previous strength I don't think it'd initialize at 85 kts.  It doesn't look too dissimilar from some cherry INVEST.

[Baroclinic Zone]

18z GFS is for the fishies.

[MJO812]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

18z GFS is for the fishies.

Looks like the Euro but plenty of time to go

More solutions possibly ahead

[Santa Claus]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

18z GFS is for the fishies.

Do you think sheer might just blow this apart beforehand?

[Windspeed]

The infrared map, with the pulsing amorphous purple convection and robust outflow, makes Jose look like a giant jellyfish.  If not for recent previous strength I don't think it'd initialize at 85 kts.  It doesn't look too dissimilar from some cherry INVEST.

Though the MLC is very tilted right now the surface vortex is still strong. The region under intense convection is probably not far off initialization. It may weaken further but the upper environment should begin improving in the coming days.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Do you think sheer might just blow this apart beforehand?

It's fighting it right now as we've seen.  We'll have to see what remains once this loop is over.  It may regenerate but it's looking ugly.

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like the Euro but plenty of time to go

More solutions possibly ahead

It's like the majority of guidance right now.