Tropical Storm Jose

[Chinook]

really cool tweet about a satellite image from Sep 9 (yesterday.) Supposedly Sentinel-2A satellite

[SnoSki14]

I'm not going to pretend that Jose has any chance of impacting the northeast but at the very least I do hope he becomes a powerful offshore cane. 

I can't say I'd be shocked if the Ukmet was right again and he started looping towards the Bahamas Jeanne style. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

33 minutes ago, Chinook said:

really cool tweet about a satellite image from Sep 9 (yesterday.) Supposedly Sentinel-2A satellite

This is epic.

 

for those thinking this is a fish storm think again. It went over the buoy north of Puerto Rico today with 44' waves. That swell is headed for the east coast. With multiple days even weeks of large waves there will be erosion problems and of course rip currents. I'm a life guard at jones beach Ny and have been for 20 years. Rip currents are no joke and kill lots of people each year. We just finished with 3 days of large surf from Irma. Luckly here in Ny the beach season is winding down and we had few swimmers this weekend 

[micaiah]

anybody else shocked at the size difference of jose between the gfs and the euro. at 96 the gfs has it at 940 millibars, contrarily the euro has it at 990. further out at 144 hours the gfs has it at 927, while the euro has it at 1000 and barely a storm.

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This is epic.

 

for those thinking this is a fish storm think again. It went over the buoy north of Puerto Rico today with 44' waves. That swell is headed for the east coast. With multiple days even weeks of large waves there will be erosion problems and of course rip currents. I'm a life guard at jones beach Ny and have been for 20 years. Rip currents are no joke and kill lots of people each year. We just finished with 3 days of large surf from Irma. Luckly here in Ny the beach season is winding down and we had few swimmers this weekend 

Your point about rip currents is an important one. They are the "invisible" impact that is too often discounted. Of course, one cannot be confident that Jose won't make landfall either. When I get home this evening, I will post some historic climatology statistics.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, micaiah said:

anybody else shocked at the size difference of jose between the gfs and the euro. at 96 the gfs has it at 940 millibars, contrarily the euro has it at 990. further out at 144 hours the gfs has it at 927, while the euro has it at 1000 and barely a storm.

Something between the two models is probably more likely than any of the specific solutions, at least if the handling of Irma is reasonably representative.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

I want Jose to run right up my fanny

Now that would certainly be a challenge for a Jim Cantore live broadcast.

[Marmot]

[donsutherland1]

Some historic climatology statistics for reference regarding Hurricane Jose:

Since 1851, there were 43 hurricanes that tracked within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s 5 pm position (22.8°N 66.9°W) during August or September. Select statistics follow.

U.S. Landfall: 37%
No U.S. Landfall: 63%

Of the 16 hurricanes that made landfall, first U.S. landfall locations were as follows:

Florida: 3 (19%) – all in southeast Florida
Georgia: 2 (13%)
New York: 1 (6%)
North Carolina: 7 (44%)
South Carolina: 2 (13%)
Texas: 1 (6%)

East Coast: 15 (94%)
Gulf of Mexico: 1 (6%)

The New York figure understates the risk of hurricane impacts from New York to New England. Impacts include second landfalls and hurricane-force winds. They are as follows:

Connecticut: 3 (19%)
Maine: 1 (6%)
Massachusetts: 2 (13%)
New Hampshire: 1 (6%)
New York: 3 (19%)
Rhode Island: 2 (13%)

The storms that brought hurricane conditions to this region from the sample were the 1938 “Great New England” Hurricane, 1944 “Great Atlantic Hurricane,” and Hurricane Gloria (1985). Hurricane Floyd, which is also in the sample, was a tropical storm by the time it impacted New York and New England.

In terms of intensity, the landfalls were as follows:

Category 1: 0 (0%)
Category 2: 6 (38%)
Category 3: 7 (44%)
Category 4: 3 (19%)

Summary: 

No U.S. landfall is about 1.7 times as likely as U.S. landfall, but the probability of U.S. landfall is above that for all hurricanes. The area from North Carolina to New England (50% of landfalls) is at similar or slightly higher risk of seeing landfall from such hurricanes as the Florida-South Carolina region is (44%  of landfalls). North Carolina has the highest risk of seeing landfall from storms that passed through the region through which Jose is passing.
 

[SteveVa]

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some historic climatology statistics for reference regarding Hurricane Jose:

Since 1851, there were 43 hurricanes that tracked within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s 5 pm position (22.8°N 66.9°W) during August or September. Select statistics follow.

U.S. Landfall: 37%
No U.S. Landfall: 63%

Of the 16 hurricanes that made landfall, first U.S. landfall locations were as follows:

Florida: 3 (19%) – all in southeast Florida
Georgia: 2 (13%)
New York: 1 (6%)
North Carolina: 7 (44%)
South Carolina: 2 (13%)
Texas: 1 (6%)

East Coast: 15 (94%)
Gulf of Mexico: 1 (6%)

The New York figure understates the risk of hurricane impacts from New York to New England. Impacts include second landfalls and hurricane-force winds. They are as follows:

Connecticut: 3 (19%)
Maine: 1 (6%)
Massachusetts: 2 (13%)
New Hampshire: 1 (6%)
New York: 3 (19%)
Rhode Island: 2 (13%)

The storms that brought hurricane conditions to this region from the sample were the 1938 “Great New England” Hurricane, 1944 “Great Atlantic Hurricane,” and Hurricane Gloria (1985). Hurricane Floyd, which is also in the sample, was a tropical storm by the time it impacted New York and New England.

In terms of intensity, the landfalls were as follows:

Category 1: 0 (0%)
Category 2: 6 (38%)
Category 3: 7 (44%)
Category 4: 3 (19%)

Summary: 

No U.S. landfall is about 1.7 times as likely as U.S. landfall, but the probability of U.S. landfall is above that for all hurricanes. The area from North Carolina to New England (50% of landfalls) is at similar or slightly higher risk of seeing landfall from such hurricanes as the Florida-South Carolina region is (44%  of landfalls). North Carolina has the highest risk of seeing landfall from storms that passed through the region through which Jose is passing.
 

Great post, Don! Love your statistical insight into hurricane tracks.

Do the probabilities of a US landfall rise if Jose does the loop as forecasted and ends up somewhere around 25N 72W? (where NHC track has it after 5 days)

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, SteveVa said:

Great post, Don! Love your statistical insight into hurricane tracks.

Do the probabilities of a US landfall rise if Jose does the loop as forecasted and ends up somewhere around 25N 72W? (where NHC track has it after 5 days)

Yes. They would increase.

[Snowberd]

Well I say Jose isn't coming anywhere near the US, cause Trump will stop him at the border (sorry I just had to lol)


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[MJO812]

Del Marva hit on the 6z GFS

 

[stormtracker]

Del Marva hit on the 6z GFS

 

Somebody better tell the folks down near the tidewater and northern NC that they are now the DelMarVa


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[jbenedet]

25 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Del Marva hit on the 6z GFS

 

Yea actually makes landfall around 940 mb.

Not that the details matter all that much here, but interesting to continue to see another major closely approaching the CONUS.

What I'm looking at is how similar the euro and gfs are at hr 144 with Irma's position ~200 miles northeast of the northern Bahamas --right around 75W. Any year that's a climatologically  favored area for east coast impact. But this year? 

Remember when Harvey couldn't get east of Texas?

Remember when guidance was split, 10 days out having Irma recurve ots and she ended up in the Gulf?

Respect the WAR in 2017.

[donsutherland1]

The collection of the 9/11 0z ECMWF and 9/11 0z and 6z GFS runs almost perfectly illustrates the climatological risk of landfall for storms that passed in the vicinity where Hurricane Jose has. Two runs (both 0z runs) missed landfall. One run (the 6z GFS) brought Jose onto shore very close to the North Carolina-Virginia border probably just a shade south of the border (around an hour or two before the map shown below).

The below portion of a map is from the 6z run as shown on Weather.us (222 hours):

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Somebody better tell the folks down near the tidewater and northern NC that they are now the DelMarVa


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The Mid-Atlantic region across the Hudson River and southward is a mysterious place for us New Yorkers. Please forgive us.

Our geography books don't define it. We've heard of murky accounts of the "Delmarva," but it isn't depicted on our maps. We've heard of a city called Washington that is not quite an independent territory but not quite part of a State either. We've read accounts of great snow droughts down in that region.

Speaking of "tidewater," our next high tide is at 12:36 PM.

In any case, here's how we see the world:

https://img1.etsystatic.com/161/0/8608111/il_570xN.1248063161_s496.jpg

More seriously, the lower-resolution maps transpose images of storms over parts of maps hiding the boundaries.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Mid-Atlantic region across the Hudson River and southward is a mysterious place for us New Yorkers.

Our geography books don't define it. We've heard of murky accounts of the "Delmarva," but it isn't depicted on our maps. We've heard of a city called Washington that is not quite an independent territory but not quite part of a State either. We've read accounts of great snow droughts down in that region.

Speaking of "tidewater," our next high tide is at 12:36 PM.

In any case, here's how we see the world:

https://img1.etsystatic.com/161/0/8608111/il_570xN.1248063161_s496.jpg

More seriously, the lower-resolution maps transpose images of storms over parts of maps hiding the boundaries.

  That New Yorker cover.

[amc]

Local news here in Maine is running wild posting images of the GFS models bringing it right into Maine. When news was able to put model tracks on the screen is when reporting seems to have gone downhill, people don't understand the uncertainty and just makes them angry when the track changes. No reason the public should be presented with over week's worth of model guidance as far as I'm concerned.

[bdgwx]

0Z UKMET brings Jose to a point between Florida and the Bahamas at D7.

[JC-CT]

Jose is kind of blowing up right now.

[Derecho!]

13 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

0Z UKMET brings Jose to a point between Florida and the Bahamas at D7.

Each UKMET run keeps getting closer to Florida at D7, including 06Z (It runs 4x a day which I think some may not know): 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=12L&stormName=JOSE

[donsutherland1]

Some updated historical climatology numbers for Jose's 11 am position (25.5°N 69.1°W):

Criteria:
● Timeframe: 1851-present
● August-September hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s position

U.S. Landfall: 30%
No U.S. Landfall: 70%

Of the 15 hurricanes that made landfall, 93% made their first landfall on the U.S. East Coast. 40% of the hurricanes making U.S. landfall made their first U.S. landfall in North Carolina and 20% made their first U.S. landfall in Florida (all in Southeast Florida). 53% of the hurricanes made their first U.S. landfall as major hurricanes.

[eaglesin2011]

Whats the climatology numbers if it makes it to this  predicted position on Saturday?  

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/150543.shtml?tswind120#contents

 

[downeastnc]

16 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Whats the climatology numbers if it makes it to this  predicted position on Saturday?  

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/150543.shtml?tswind120#contents

 

75W is sort of the cut off.....once it goes west of that it has to go east again to miss the US....and lots of them do just that and turn out east again, still a hurricane crossing 75W moving NW is a very real threat for landfall in the SE or near miss on the OBX....

[NJwx85]

The Southeast movement was well modeled several days ago. The models did an excellent job of showing Jose caught in between the Southeasterly flow from the big ULL to the Northeast and the Western Atlantic ridge. The only real question was whether or not Jose would be able to fight off the shear long enough to maintain its core. Once Jose rounds the Eastern periphery of the WAR and commences on a Southerly and then Westerly heading, Jose should find itself in a more favorable UL environment, with sufficient SST. In fact, the 12z GFS indicated only around 15-20kts of Northerly shear by hr 60, with Jose moving away. The 12z GFS responds to this more favorable environment by showing a steady re-organization post hr 60 as Jose finds itself under the bridge of two connecting areas of high pressure. If Irma ends up a weaker, shallower system in the medium range, a Southwesterly track could possible commence as the lower level winds actually point more towards the Greater Antilles. 

 

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

Jose is kind of blowing up right now.

It's taking a bit of a beating still from the shear associated with the trough to it's Northeast, however that shear should gradually relax over the next few days.

[forecasterjack]

Even while being sheared by Irma's outflow, Jose is consistently producing more <-80C cloud tops than Irma ever did. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/702-w-267-n/top-alert-superhd-15min.html#play

[Heisy]

The biggest change in the last 2 GFS runs is the trough that was eventually kicking Jose E is headed up into Canada instead of the NE. This would give Jose room to hit the EC

[donsutherland1]

52 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

75W is sort of the cut off.....once it goes west of that it has to go east again to miss the US....and lots of them do just that and turn out east again, still a hurricane crossing 75W moving NW is a very real threat for landfall in the SE or near miss on the OBX....

Criteria:
● Timeframe: 1851-present
● August-September hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s forecast position of 26.5°N 74.5°W

U.S. Landfall: 56%
No U.S. Landfall: 44%

All 25 of the landfalling hurricanes in the sample made landfall on the U.S. East Coast. The most common areas of landfall were:

Florida: 28% (6/7 of which were major hurricanes)
North Carolina: 24%
South Carolina: 20% (4/5 of which were major hurricanes)
Virginia to New England: 20%

60% of the hurricanes that made U.S. landfall did so as major hurricanes on their first U.S. landfall.

Most notable hurricanes among those that made U.S. landfall:
1869 “Eastern New England” Hurricane (Category 3: RI)
1871 SE Florida (Category 3)
1893 “Sea Islands” Hurricane (Category 3: GA)
1929 SE Florida Hurricane (Category 3)
1938 “Great New England” Hurricane (Category 3)
1947 SE Florida Hurricane (Category 4)
Hazel (1954) Category 4
Gracie (1959) Category 4
Betsy (1965) Category 3
Hugo (1989) Category 4
Andrew (1992) Category 5
Fran (1996) Category 3
Jeanne (2004) Category 3