MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Jose is just stalling near Hatteras. Strong beach erosion a long the coast on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Jose is just stalling near Hatteras. Strong beach erosion a long the coast on the GFS. Legit tropical storm conditions I'd say up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Landfall 940s nj hour 252 hooks in like sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, nycsnow said: Landfall 940s nj hour 252 hooks in like sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: I don't believe that BS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: I don't believe that BS!! Euro hooks Jose right into New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Jose keeps circling off shore on 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Let's not play by play at 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Model errors at 240 hours are huge. One can recall how the guidance evolved before arriving at SW Florida landfall for Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Model errors at 240 hours are huge. One can recall how the guidance evolved before arriving at SW Florida landfall for Irma. Very true, but the chance of having a hurricane off shore is increasing. And with it coastal imacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Very true, but the chance of having a hurricane off shore is increasing. And with it coastal imacts. What's notable at this point is the amount of close east coast passes/hits shown on the GFS and Euro since this came within range of model guidance. It indicates to me that a large variety of solutions still bring about a similar result.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 What's notable at this point is the amount of close east coast passes/hits shown on the GFS and Euro since this came within range of model guidance. It indicates to me that a large variety of solutions still bring about a similar result.... I guess I would argue it's not really in range of model guidance yet. But it bears watching, sure.On the ensembles, I see a large variety of solutions yielding a large variety of results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Very true, but the chance of having a hurricane off shore is increasing. And with it coastal imacts. On this we don't disagree. I was more focused on speculation about specific landfall locations. While landfall is within the range of possible outcomes, it's too soon to speculate on details given model skill at 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 35 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I guess I would argue it's not really in range of model guidance yet. But it bears watching, sure. On the ensembles, I see a large variety of solutions yielding a large variety of results. Yes, members with varied initial conditions, -- of course we will see the large spread out 240 hrs... I find it noteworthy that the unperturbed guidance --the empirical best guesses, if you will-- of the GFS and Euro continue to show a close approach to the eastern CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Yes, members with varied initial conditions, -- of course we will see the large spread out 240 hrs... I find it noteworthy that the unperturbed guidance --the empirical best guesses, if you will-- of the GFS and Euro continue to show a close approach to the eastern CONUS. You know as well as I do that h5 has basically no chance of verifying with any detail this far out, let alone the track of a tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 14 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yes, members with varied initial conditions, -- of course we will see the large spread out 240 hrs... I find it noteworthy that the unperturbed guidance --the empirical best guesses, if you will-- of the GFS and Euro continue to show a close approach to the eastern CONUS. You know as well as I do that h5 has basically no chance of verifying with any detail this far out, let alone the track of a tropical cyclone. Yes, and that's precisely why I'm not focusing on details... The general long wave pave pattern is another story... Irma is a perfect case in point, actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 NHC cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: NHC cone That's not a cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Agree that we cannot focus too much on model runs 10-14 days out. But has anyone seen Jose on the 6Z GFS? Has anyone ever seen behavior like that even that far out? It appears to continue to retrograde Jose towards the SW for many many hours over the Atlantic. Not just a stall or a meander. A steady SW and then S traverse between 264 and 284. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, larrye said: Agree that we cannot focus too much on model runs 10-14 days out. But has anyone seen Jose on the 6Z GFS? Has anyone ever seen behavior like that even that far out? It appears to continue to retrograde Jose towards the SW for many many hours over the Atlantic. Not just a stall or a meander. A steady SW and then S traverse between 264 and 284. There is a blocking high to the northeast of the storm. That's why it retro gaded back south westward. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091006&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=684 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 In about 60-72 hours, we should figure out if Jose could still be in play to affect the U.S. Models that have Jose go OTS have it get picked up by a trough. The inland models have Jose avoid being picked up, allowing it to approach. Like Irma showed us, we really shouldn't look at 240-hour runs and get all hot and bothered because of a sexy eastern seaboard hit. Let's see if Jose will even be in position first, then we can figure out trough placements and what Jose will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 if Jose avoids getting picked up by the trough it'll be an ACE monster. It'll just sit in a decently favorable area for days. upwelling should prevent it from strengthening(plus who knows regarding shear) as shown by the nws intensity but it should have no problem maintaining hurricane strength. will be interesting to watch the next few days just to see if it misses the trough to take it out to sea. if that occurs then potential landfalls can be taken more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I think the loop that its forecast to do in the near term is interesting . That's a pretty tight turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 12z GFS teasing the East Coast. Storm really has no where to escape East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 GFS takes Jose right inside the BM as a strong hurricane and makes landfall into New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Jose could do a lot of dancing next week, unusually large amount of high latitude blocking in place. At the very least I'm expecting several days of high seas and swells. The closer he gets to the coast before looping, the more interesting it'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Ukie is right on the Bahamas http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks like it's going to miss the NYC/nj area. They don't need another sandy like storm. It's 9 days out so we have large track errors on our side. Hopefully it'll miss New England as well. The US doesn't need more natural disasters this year. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 GFS really gunning for a NE CONUS landfall the last few runs. Euro and CMC to some degree also. Will be another interesting hurricane to monitor regardless of outcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Between the GFS NE hit, the JMA FL hit, and the Euro OTS between NE and Bermuda, I'd say Jose is going to give the models fits for the next few days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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