Vice-Regent Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 hours ago, larrye said: Speculation on how/why Jose managed to become a Cat 4 while right behind Irma? I would have thought that "traditionally", we would not expect a Tropical System right behind another to develop into another strong one due to upwelling? The 27C layer extends down to absurd depths, pushing 300 feet in some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Does it look like Jose will make mainland landfall at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 hours ago, larrye said: Speculation on how/why Jose managed to become a Cat 4 while right behind Irma? I would have thought that "traditionally", we would not expect a Tropical System right behind another to develop into another strong one due to upwelling? Keep in mind, Irma and Jose used different paths to reach this point east of the northern islands. Irma came from the ene while Jose came from the ese. Until today, Jose has traversed untouched water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Jose better start gaining some latitude soon or it's going to making a very close pass to Barbuda. Solid looking cane. Surprised it's not a cat 5 to be honest. Even NHC says they might be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Jose better start gaining some latitude soon or it's going to making a very close pass to Barbuda. Solid looking cane. Surprised it's not a cat 5 to be honest. Even NHC says they might be conservative. Recon heading in shortly.Latest MW image looks solid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Some of the long range models showing it just spinning like a top lol. Am I crazy or reading these wrong? GFS at very far out hours is throwing very odd tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The recent recon mission has 939 mb and 135kt at flight level. Surface wind plot on TropicalTidbits.com is difficult to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 GEFS loves Jose near the coast https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=atl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017090818&fh=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Jose just at the cat 5 threshold despite not looking so hot. Quite a tenacious cane. Barbuda still in the crosshairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Jose forcasted to do 8000 track loops. That should make up for all you poor tortured souls who didn't get to see Mathew do one last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Yes. I just looked at the GFS and i suppose Jose should be watched. Will or might he come farther west and impact the eastern US coastline? Probably not likely, but I guess it's safe to say at this point, who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 There needs to be something that can pull Jose towards the coast otherwise he'll easily go OTS after making the loop. That can't be properly forecast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There needs to be something that can pull Jose towards the coast otherwise he'll easily go OTS after making the loop. That can't be properly forecast right now. The H5 wavelengths are starting to get nutty as we get deeper into meteorological Fall. Our placement is precarious, especially New England. We will not need much to see a scrape or landfall. ULL over the Ohio Valley would get the job done or a simple cold front with the WAR building west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Jose is chilling pretty close to the SE coast on the last 4 runs of the GFS as a cat 4. Today's 12z is also closer than previous runs. Euro also has it passing a bit too close for comfort off OBX. Worth tracking for sure. Jeanne redux? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Gfs hates the northeast for some reason. Insane 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs hates the northeast for some reason. Insane 12z run. 10 days out, but I see that. As we've seen with Irma ... will change a thousand times between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs hates the northeast for some reason. Insane 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Haha I thought this was the banter thread.Oh well, I guess we can lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Haha I thought this was the banter thread. Oh well, I guess we can lock it in. Every model has it offshore except the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Every model has it offshore except the CMC I hope it misses the east coast by hundreds of miles to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 No kidding, I hope this misses the East Coast too. The GFS ensemble plot looks like Medusa on a bad hair day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2002 Hurricane Kyle all over again? If you don't know that one, you should look up the track. I just don't see how this thing doesn't get picked up and taken out if it is sitting around in the area for days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Gonna have to keep a close eye on this one up and down the EC. Never know where these loopers are gonna go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowberd Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Can someone here explain this for 9/18 timeframe. Or is this just clickbait - I know it's too early to even talk about but is this a possibility? Is the GFS only model showing this? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 35 minutes ago, Snowberd said: Can someone here explain this for 9/18 timeframe. Or is this just clickbait - I know it's too early to even talk about but is this a possibility? Is the GFS only model showing this? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Gfs , gefs , jma , euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Snowberd said: Can someone here explain this for 9/18 timeframe. Or is this just clickbait - I know it's too early to even talk about but is this a possibility? Is the GFS only model showing this? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's possible in that it's physically possible, sure, but at 10 days out that graphic is basically weather fan-fiction. It's meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 (Weather fan-fiction, stealing that.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 00z gfs at 198 were getting a strong breeze with high surf already Wind field is big. Should hook into coast again soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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