MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Gfs and Nam are slightly more west on the 6z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro and Ukmet runs from last night were def well west of the NHC's cone. The EPS had a notable shift west as well, but the mean still indicates a graze with minimal TS impacts for even eastern LI and SE MA. I was originally thinking the NHC would have already adjusted their cone to the west based on last night's runs but I think they were right to stay put for now based on the number of GEFS and EPS members that are currently within their forecast cone. Right now more caution is warranted than this time yesterday, but forecasting wise, per the NHC it's still a hold/ "wait and see". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Euro and Ukmet runs from last night were def well west of the NHC's cone. The EPS had a notable shift west as well, but the mean still indicates a graze with minimal TS impacts for even eastern LI and SE MA. I was originally thinking the NHC would have already adjusted their cone to the west based on last night's runs but I think they were right to stay put for now based on the number of GEFS and EPS members that are currently within their forecast cone. Right now more caution is warranted than this time yesterday, but forecasting wise, per the NHC it's still a hold/ "wait and see". I think they are assuming an overcorrection right now. I think the closest this gets is reaching 41N/71W then turning. That's close enough NYC and LI probably get 25-35mph winds and a rainy day. Move that 50-60 miles east though and it's mostly a miss. I think they're also keeping this too strong. I guess this may be a 60mph system in 72 hours but if it is you're probably talking about a 15 mile area on the east side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the Euro may turn out to be correct on the loop back west as the EPS mean and the GFS have it now. This seems plausible with such strong blocking in place. While the storm will weaken greatly coming back over the cooler waters, it may have some influence on the eventual track of Maria. Regarding the cooler waters, we really need to see how this loop plays out. As it is now, that loop occurs awfully close to the Gulf Stream. Verbatim, Jose quickly weakens, I agree. But should the loop happen 50-100 miles further south, he can potentially maintain strength as a TS or minimal Hurricane, for a while longer. And then we have to see where he's headed next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I wouldn't even guess right now how Jose may impact Maria. It sure does seem though the more east it hooks and especially the more south of a latitude it hooks the more likely it would stay strong enough to boot Maria out. If it comes way more west or north and or goes into loops it'll likely crap out enough to not be a big influence and Maria may head into the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 89kts SFMR cat 2 970mb hurricane per recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The euro looks close to the NYC area and stalls out ... another click or two west are we looking like a nice size storm with some strong winds and storm surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think they are assuming an overcorrection right now. I think the closest this gets is reaching 41N/71W then turning. That's close enough NYC and LI probably get 25-35mph winds and a rainy day. Move that 50-60 miles east though and it's mostly a miss. I think they're also keeping this too strong. I guess this may be a 60mph system in 72 hours but if it is you're probably talking about a 15 mile area on the east side Spot on, everyone seems to be discounting how fast this will fall apart once it hits the 70 degree water beyond the gulf stream. Any winds of note will be confined to it's ese side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 49 minutes ago, bluewave said: There will be plenty of upwelling in either case so a further south loop may be more significant for what it does to the ridge ahead of Maria. Very complex forecast. I agree. Upwelling is an issue. Seperately, I'm not an expert on ocean physics by any stretch, but I wonder if upwelling is less impactful immediately near/over the Gulf Stream, as surface volume replacement could be more horizontal than vertical (coming from below surface depths)...Anyway just a thought, and a moot question for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not sure if it can loop that far south just yet. It would have to get back below 38N to reach the Gulf Stream again. Yea neither am I. I'm just raising it as a possibility. The weak steering currents, and the trend for guidance to slow him further over time has caused me to consider such an outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Nam is coming in further north with the precip compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 12z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 more pic from the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 That would be some good rain for A lot of the Mid Atlantic and SNE if that played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I don't think there's been enough emphasis placed on the synoptic scale gradient wind; not the wind being generated by Jose himself. All guidance is showing robust high pressure from Nova Scotia to Southern Quebec around 1020 mb. If Jose makes a close pass, it's likely going to be quite (surprisingly) windy throughout coastal New England and the Northern Mid Atlantic. Gusts could exceed 40 mph throughout a large area of SNE, even away from the coast per the 0z Euro. Low end to Moderate TS conditions are being shown on the 0z Euro in Coastal NJ, eastern LI and SE MA/islands. This isn't unrealistic given the wall of HP to our north/northeast. So despite a weakening Jose, and a path ots, the blocking in place indicates we have much more than just Jose to consider while trying to determine wind related impacts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The GFS definitely shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: The GFS definitely shifted west 38 minutes ago, snow1 said: Gfs remains east 30 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's not a miss for NYC Seriously guys..... how about we show some maps to portray that outcome of a model run instead of these one liners!!! It really would make it a whole lot easier for everyone... thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The Ukie with the stall then rot SE of LI to the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro has some pretty good 850 mb winds over NYC area at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Euro has some pretty good 850 mb winds over NYC area at 72 hours. And over 2" of rain, very close to a major hit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: And over 2" of rain, very close to a major hit there. How we looking on possible surge ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 How much wind for long Island? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I don't know why my post got deleted earlier I mentioned that the GFS is a miss for NYC and west and I don't agree with it I think the precipitation field expands as this tropical cyclone will become extra tropical by the time it reaches our latitude. Regardless the moderator 3 posted me for no reason here I don't get the hate. I get along with everybody and I don't post that much unless we have an impending snowstorm. Take a look at today's 12z GFS still plenty of wind though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The 12z Euro is projecting that the storm will be taking on hybrid characteristics while it approaches us. That means that it is also taking energy from baroclinic forces. The other models are not seeing this happen to the degree that the Euro is. This could result in greater impacts with higher winds. The 12z Euro is projecting wind gusts at the surface (10m) to be 40 - 60 MPH in gusts Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on the south shore beaches and across eastern LI (EuroWx). That would argue for a Tropical storm watch. I will add the Euro is projecting the storm to be a full fledged hurricane Tuesday evening centered 200 miles to the east of Ocean City, MD with winds gusting to 92 MPH at 10m. This would make for some tremendous seas and serious coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Tropical Storm Watch issued for the NJ coastal waters URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 353 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM JOSE WILL AFFECT OUR WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF PERIODS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FROM APPROXIMATELY 2 AM TUESDAY TO ABOUT 2 AM WEDNESDAY. ANZ450>455-181000- /O.CAN.KPHI.SW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-170918T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.TR.A.1012.170917T1953Z-000000T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 353 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. TROPICAL STORM JOSE MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUSTAINED 34 KNOT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 KNOTS TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF 34 KNOT SUSTAINED WIND HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON THE THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ON TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KT ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Watches issued for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Watches issued for the coast That's not for the coast, it's for the offshore waters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: That's not for the coast, it's for the offshore waters Some places are under Tropical Storm Watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moleson Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Some places are under Tropical Storm Watches Can you be more vague? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.