JC-CT Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Umm. Umm. I have no words for this. Hurricane (or Tropical Storm) Jose moves SW as Hurricane-15 moves northeast. This is the ECMWF forecast image for 9/26 at 06z.How about "not happening" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 17 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 3 hours ago, Chinook said: Umm. Umm. I have no words for this. Hurricane (or Tropical Storm) Jose moves SW as Hurricane-15 moves northeast. This is the ECMWF forecast image for 9/26 at 06z. How about "not happening" Gfs went towards that idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Hurricane models seeing the loop now https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_tracks_latest.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdennis78 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 hours ago, JC-CT said: 5 hours ago, Chinook said: Umm. Umm. I have no words for this. Hurricane (or Tropical Storm) Jose moves SW as Hurricane-15 moves northeast. This is the ECMWF forecast image for 9/26 at 06z. How about "not happening" Uh, how about ROTFLMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gfs went towards that idea So that scenario would essentially eliminate the Maria threat? (And how likely is it?) Would be kind of funny if Jose has hung around for the purpose of steering Maria away, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marmot Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hurricane models seeing the loop now https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_tracks_latest.png Looks like 9 models are looping Jose back after 41N , as early as 96hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 At 11 pm, Jose remained on a track that would likely result in its remaining off shore. Its 11 pm position was 29.2°N 71.8°W. The ECMWF ensembles represent perhaps the best assessment of Jose’s risk of landfall. The implied probability of landfall shown on the EPS falls between the low probability on the GEFS and modest probability suggested by historic climatology. Thus far, climatology has proved to be a stabilizing element. It has helped prevent ideas from swinging fairly dramatically from one solution to another during the period of greatest uncertainty concerning Jose’s future track. At no time has historic climatology suggested a 50% or greater probability of U.S. landfall. In addition, it consistently argued that no landfall altogether was somewhat more likely than any landfall (U.S. or Canadian). Nevertheless, some uncertainty persists. There remains a possibility that Jose will experience another anti-cyclonic loop. Forecast rainfall amounts are as follows (9/16 12z ECMWF): Atlantic City: 0.10” Boston: 1.44” Bridgeport: 0.62” Hartford: 0.83” Islip: 0.82” Nantucket: 4.03” New York City: …JFK: 0.50” …LGA:0.39” …NYC: 0.34” Newark: 0.31” Plymouth: 2.51” Portland: 0.35” Providence: 1.88” Westhampton: 1.15” White Plains: 0.34” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Nam shifted west Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 00z GFS coming in west of last few runs ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Jose and Maria are gonna dance on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Jose needs to go lol, No dancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Jose chased after Irma... and now is trying to go after Maria. :-/ ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 CMC is west for Jose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Ukie slams into NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Some major developments unfolding, significant west shift by Euro and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro nice movement towards the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Euro shifted west and now looks like the Ukie A lot of precip for NYC and coastal SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Does anyone with Joaquin whether it was the globals or the hurricane models that totally blew it? I want to say it was the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Does anyone with Joaquin whether it was the globals or the hurricane models that totally blew it? I want to say it was the globals. Every model has shifted west tonight but the Euro and Ukie really shifted west. Curious to see if the hurricane models start shifting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Does anyone with Joaquin whether it was the globals or the hurricane models that totally blew it? I want to say it was the globals. Euro nailed Joaquin when others wanted to send it back towards the coast. On satellite there's been a significant westward expansion, Ukie and Euro could be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro nailed Joaquin when others wanted to send it back towards the coast. On satellite there's been a significant westward expansion, Ukie and Euro could be on to something. NHC probably gets away with it because its going to be a dying noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NHC probably gets away with it because its going to be a dying noreaster. 976 is a dying noreaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NHC probably gets away with it because its going to be a dying noreaster. Euro was much tighter with Jose's loop and much weaker than the GFS. Wonder what downstream implications that has for Maria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: 976 is a dying noreaster? The shear is brutal. I cannot see this being any worse than a noreaster type event. Especially on the west side. I think NHC is going to start playing up the weakening on the 5am and 11am discussions to cover themselves if the track shifts west. I don't see them making any major track adjustment for another 24-30 hours unless the HURR models move west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Very impressive wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The ECMWF stalls Jose for so long that it begins to fill the 500 mb vort and raise heights. I don't ever recall that occurring with a tropical system right off the Mid-Atlantic coast. What a massive block. Wow, the entire mid-level vort gets smashed and dissipates. Full scale ridge fills and expands over the entire Mid-Atlantic. Meteorological nerding out to the max even if this is out in fantasy land and doesn't resolve IRL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I know models have been back and forth for days so I'd need to see the Euro either maintain that track or shift even further west for it to be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I know models have been back and forth for days so I'd need to see the Euro either maintain that track or shift even further west for it to be legit. A lot of blocking on the Euro and Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 15 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The ECMWF stalls Jose for so long that it begins to fill the 500 mb vort and raise heights. I don't ever recall that occurring with a tropical system right off the Mid-Atlantic coast. What a massive block. Wow, the entire mid-level vort gets smashed and dissipates. Full scale ridge fills and expands over the entire Mid-Atlantic. Meteorological nerding out to the max even if this is out in fantasy land and doesn't resolve IRL. That ridge filling in brings Maria in NC on a Fran track as well. HUGE implications on the future impacts Maria might have depending on what Jose does in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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