allgame830 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps shifted west from previous runs Care to post image please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The last CV storm to track over the benchmark was Earl in 2010. Jose might be taking the same track as Earl. Changes can still occur so we have to still keep an eye out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Jose might be taking the same track as Earl. Changes can still occur so we have to still keep an eye out. Didn't Hurricane Bill take a similar track to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Well Earl was an absolute non event here in CT. I don't even think we got a drop of rain from it. So I'm hoping this(Jose) gives us at least some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 The consensus of the guidance coupled with historical climatology for hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s 5 am position continues to suggest that Jose will take an offshore track. Jose should pass to the south and east of Montauk Point and Nantucket as it heads through the waters of the northeastern U.S. and then heads farther out into the Atlantic. Since 1851, 39% of the hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s 5 am position made U.S. landfall. The EPS and GEFS show a lower landfall probability. Nevertheless, parts of the U.S., especially North Carolina’s Outer Banks, parts of Suffolk County and southeastern Massachusetts still could experience tropical storm conditions. Select rainfall forecasts from the 9/16 0z ECMWF are below: Atlantic City: 0.38” Boston: 1.03” Bridgeport: 0.63” Hartford: 0.50” Islip: 0.75” Nantucket: 3.19” New York City: 0.44” Plymouth: 2.48” Portland: 0.47” Providence: 1.95” Westhampton: 1.30” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The consensus of the guidance coupled with historical climatology for hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s 5 am position continues to suggest that Jose will take an offshore track. Jose should pass to the south and east of Montauk Point and Nantucket as it heads through the waters of the northeastern U.S. and then heads farther out into the Atlantic. Since 1851, 39% of the hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s 5 am position made U.S. landfall. The EPS and GEFS show a lower landfall probability. Nevertheless, parts of the U.S., especially North Carolina’s Outer Banks, parts of Suffolk County and southeastern Massachusetts still could experience tropical storm conditions. Select rainfall forecasts from the 9/16 0z ECMWF are below: Atlantic City: 0.38” Boston: 1.03” Bridgeport: 0.63” Hartford: 0.50” Islip: 0.75” Nantucket: 3.19” New York City: 0.44” Plymouth: 2.48” Portland: 0.47” Providence: 1.95” Westhampton: 1.30” Much appreciated Don! Does the cluster of the models show it going over the benchmark? Also could you provide maximum wind gusts for the same locations as in the list above? And please add JFK/Nassau County to the list, interpolating from the above, the precip total should be around 0.6" but I'm not sure how high the winds would be. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, Paragon said: Much appreciated Don! Does the cluster of the models show it going over the benchmark? Also could you provide maximum wind gusts for the same locations as in the list above? And please add JFK/Nassau County to the list, interpolating from the above, the precip total should be around 0.6" but I'm not sure how high the winds would be. Thanks! This evening, I will provide a more complete list, including JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 GFS is coming in further east through 54 I think this stays offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 CMC is also coming in further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 47 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS is coming in further east through 54 I think this stays offshore 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: CMC is also coming in further east What a shock, now watch the Euro come in west. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 In terms of potential EC impact, the next one is looking much more interesting (albeit at the long range). GFS has been consistent with it over the past few runs and the last Euro is pretty close to a NC landfall. Is that 15L? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: GFS is coming in further east through 54 I think this stays offshore Lol...Jose was getting us a LIL excited for a bit there with his head fake to the west...but alas, it will most likely be business as usual for the northeast with regard to tropical systems....."wide right." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Recon is currently in Jose, two interesting findings so far Pressure is down to 978mb according to the dropsonde (it has 10kt winds though, and extrap is down to 975mb) FL winds are stronger about 100mi to the E/NE of the center than in the SE eyewall (84kt vs 70kt), SFMR has 65kt surface winds in the SE eyewall So...Jose is strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Quote What a shock, now watch the Euro come in west. lol Get this man a beer! Euro slightly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Euro to the west .. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Sportybx said: 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Euro to the west .. lol Euro and Ukie came in west and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 The Euro was a scare job but is still largely a miss. I'm tossing the UKMET this close in. If it's that different from the Euro at 72 it's usually wrong. At 96-120 I may give it some credence but not this close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 So we still have a ballgame here...ok then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Fujiwara? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Euro trying to Fugiwara Jose back into VA at 216hrs. One of the wonkiest runs I've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Fujiwara? The 12Z Euro had a similar setup yesterday except Jose was further NE and not as close to that other system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Umm. Umm. I have no words for this. Hurricane (or Tropical Storm) Jose moves SW as Hurricane-15 moves northeast. This is the ECMWF forecast image for 9/26 at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 You can see a front on the NW edge of the gulfstream that may end up predicting the track rather well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Several eps members on NYC and west of op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Jose already east of forecast track. 71.9 28.6 approximated from the latest microwave pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Jose already east of forecast track. 71.9 28.6 approximated from the latest microwave pass. Meanwhile other people are saying he's moving southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Meanwhile other people are saying he's moving southwest. They are wrong that is not southwest of any previous position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richatdjacks Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Umm. Umm. I have no words for this. Hurricane (or Tropical Storm) Jose moves SW as Hurricane-15 moves northeast. This is the ECMWF forecast image for 9/26 at 06z.I can see the fake Facebook posts already "two hurricanes combine to make a category 7 supercane"Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 I think we need to root for getting Jose the heck out of here so he doesn't swing back as a naked swirl and take Maria with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Almost a fujiwara on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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