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Tropical Storm Jose

NortheastPAWx

By NortheastPAWx,
in Tropical Headquarters

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wow 18z Gefs is way west of op

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017091518/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

That's a big deal. Huge shift west there. Largest cluster of solutions are over eastern LI. 

Thinking the data incorporated from this afternoon's flight into Jose is part of the reason for the significant run to run differences.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Isn't there some sort of navgem rule that SG keeps talking about (aside from it being a bad model lol)

I'm not sure if it works for tropical systems.  For any sort of major mid latitude cyclone if you're inside 100 hours and its similar to or west of the GFS/Euro/GGEM it often means you're going to see a shift west since its such a heavily progressive model.  I've rarely seen that tendency fail the last 5 or so winters.  I'm always concerned at 72-96 hours if the NavGEM is way west or even near the other models.  For the March NYC/LI snow bust this year it definitely worked. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That's a big deal. Huge shift west there. Largest cluster of solutions are over eastern LI. 

Thinking the data incorporated from this afternoon's flight into Jose is part of the reason for the significant run to run differences.

in that location could be a significant amount of rain and wind - my little rule of thumb for systems like these is if they make it to the latitude of ACY while still staying west of MTP, it's going to be a good rain and wind maker.

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm not sure if it works for tropical systems.  For any sort of major mid latitude cyclone if you're inside 100 hours and its similar to or west of the GFS/Euro/GGEM it often means you're going to see a shift west since its such a heavily progressive model.  I've rarely seen that tendency fail the last 5 or so winters.  I'm always concerned at 72-96 hours if the NavGEM is way west or even near the other models.  For the March NYC/LI snow bust this year it definitely worked. 

Multiple signs are pointing to a correction west.  I saw the navgem and immediately thought of what you had said during the winter, and there's also the fact that the 18z GFS run was significantly SW early on in its track and now the 18z GEFS has trended west also.  I expect the 0z run to jump west a bit (at least to MTP.)

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Paragon said:

Multiple signs are pointing to a correction west.  I saw the navgem and immediately thought of what you had said during the winter, and there's also the fact that the 18z GFS run was significantly SW early on in its track and now the 18z GEFS has trended west also.  I expect the 0z run to jump west a bit (at least to MTP.)

I'm still wary of the fact the Euro and hurricane models are so far east.  If those do not correct west tonight I still have to lean towards something over the Cape or Islands.  The GFS/CMC/NavGEM were all pretty lousy with Irma at this range.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm still wary of the fact the Euro and hurricane models are so far east.  If those do not correct west tonight I still have to lean towards something over the Cape or Islands.  The GFS/CMC/NavGEM were all pretty lousy with Irma at this range.

Yes getting the Euro on board is vital.  I have my doubts about its second loop though we've seen stranger things

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm still wary of the fact the Euro and hurricane models are so far east.  If those do not correct west tonight I still have to lean towards something over the Cape or Islands.  The GFS/CMC/NavGEM were all pretty lousy with Irma at this range.

I agree with caution here, but one thing giving me more confidence is the sizable differences in the 18z gfs/gefs versus 12z only out to 36 hr...

These early discrepancies are being amplified further out in the run.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I agree with caution here, but one thing giving me more confidence is the sizable differences in the 18z gfs/gefs versus 12z only out to 36 hr...

These early discrepancies are being amplified further out in the run.

yeah it's much further SW earlier on in the run- this is no small run to run variation- and should have bigger implications later on than what the op showed.  There is no big steering current that would force this to the east.

 

If you are correct about new information and data via dropsonde being ingested into the models then the 0z Euro run tonight should have access to it also and should adjust the track accordingly.

 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

I've seen it before, Euro east when all other models trend west at this range, with this type of storm. Euro ends up verifying, although there is sometimes a shift too far west with all models +12-24hours from now. Sometimes the Euro stays consistent

The networks are getting a bit carried away too early because the Euro as I pointed out also does not show the expanse in the wind field as much which means if this goes over the BM that many of those areas from C LI-C CT west might not even see winds crack 30 mph.  Even the 18Z GFS for NYC proper was 30G40 mph probably at peak.  On the west side of the storm you typically do not mix down as effectively due to stability holding in the lower layer.  We even saw this in Sandy that the inversion held pretty well til around 22-23Z when the system came ashore in NJ and put everyone on the east side. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The networks are getting a bit carried away too early because the Euro as I pointed out also does not show the expanse in the wind field as much which means if this goes over the BM that many of those areas from C LI-C CT west might not even see winds crack 30 mph.  Even the 18Z GFS for NYC proper was 30G40 mph probably at peak.  On the west side of the storm you typically do not mix down as effectively due to stability holding in the lower layer.  We even saw this in Sandy that the inversion held pretty well til around 22-23Z when the system came ashore in NJ and put everyone on the east side. 

I saw a wind and precip forecast from the 12z Euro run which had 30+ mph gusts and 0.2 inches of rain for eastern parts of NYC and western LI lol.  Meanwhile eastern LI had gusts of 50-60 mph and 3-4 inches of rain and Nantucket had 60-70 mph gusts and 8-10 inches of rain.  Typically in a system that makes it this far north you get the highest winds to the east of the center but the heaviest rains to the west.  If that works out in a system that tracks over Montauk, the heaviest rains would be in western LI and eastern parts of NYC but the highest winds would be in SE New England.  Saw that with Bob.

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted 
000
WTNT32 KNHC 160250
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...JOSE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 71.0W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system.  A Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for a portion of the
coast of North Carolina on Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 71.0 West. Jose is moving toward
the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A gradual turn toward the north
is expected over the next couple of days.

The estimated maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph
(130 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected
this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

This just looks too much like Eduard 1996 for me to get excited about.  I'd like to think models have improved in the last 21 years, but then again I liked to think mets have too.   This storm is moving slow and there is no  extratropical cyclone to energize it like Sandy.   It will weaken a lot over the coastal waters.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Amped said:

This just looks too much like Eduard 1996 for me to get excited about.  I'd like to think models have improved in the last 21 years, but then again I liked to think mets have too.   This storm is moving slow and there is no  extratropical cyclone to energize it like Sandy.   It will weaken a lot over the coastal waters.

If you want a more recent version of Edouard to use as a test for what might happen, you only have to look to last year's Hermine.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

GFS

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

Went in the other direction lol.  I wonder if its excessive intensification (960 mb?) is causing it to be tugged eastward.  More intense storms usually recurve faster and sharper.  So a less intense storm has more of a chance to stay close to the coast.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
Just now, Paragon said:

Went in the other direction lol.  I wonder if its excessive intensification (960 mb?) is causing it to be tugged eastward.  More intense storms usually recurve faster and sharper.  So a less intense storm has more of a chance to stay close to the coast.

It's slightly west of 18z

Curious to see the gefs

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Didn't mention the Euro.

The NHC has gone with a 50/50 blend of the Euro (shown below at 96 hours) and GFS as of 5 am - see the track below - the NJ coast is no longer within the cone.  

And just for giggles, 96L shows up on the Euro at hour 240 as a sub 950 mbar hurricane on the doorstep of the Outer Banks, while the GFS has a sub 940 mbar storm striking around Jacksonville at hour 228.  

cone graphic

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_neus_5.png

 

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