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Tropical Storm Jose

NortheastPAWx

By NortheastPAWx,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

And just speculation at this point, but it looks like the trough could potentially go and grab Lee/Maria.

Fun times ahead.

sketched_59bc2256586db.png

Jose seems to be like a shell of itself by this time though.  I was hoping for a Fujiwara effect on the East Coast.  Might be more like Eduoard or Hermine Part 2 if Jose is this weak (though 992 mb is a lot better than the 1007 mb it had after the second loop and landfall last night.)  What are your thoughts on the Lee/Maria system?  Pure speculation but if the Euro were extended out do you see the trough as being the kicker or do you think it would have grabbed Lee/Maria and pulled it towards the coast and north?

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kdennis78

kdennis78

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Jose seems to be like a shell of itself by this time though.  I was hoping for a Fujiwara effect on the East Coast.  Might be more like Eduoard or Hermine Part 2 if Jose is this weak (though 992 mb is a lot better than the 1007 mb it had after the second loop and landfall last night.)  What are your thoughts on the Lee/Maria system?  Pure speculation but if the Euro were extended out do you see the trough as being the kicker or do you think it would have grabbed Lee/Maria and pulled it towards the coast and north?

Shouldn't this last question be asked or speculated about elsewhere? This is about Jose, not potential tropical systems that are 10+ days out from anything.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, kdennis78 said:

Shouldn't this last question be asked or speculated about elsewhere? This is about Jose, not potential tropical systems that are 10+ days out from anything.

Well it's part of the same discussion since the two storms could possibly interact with each other and one might affect the other one's future track.  That's what we were talking about in the local subforums also.  Talking in multiple places at the same time just makes things more confusing.

 

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro doesn't seem to have the extra tropical transition the GFS wants to show which is why it's noticeably less of an impact back this way as the wind field isn't as expansive.  The GFS is probably overdoing the MSLP too 

As it did with Irma.  It had Irma in the 880s and 890s while it verified in the low 910s.  Still very impressive but not ridiculously historic.

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LovintheWhiteFluff

LovintheWhiteFluff

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

As it did with Irma.  It had Irma in the 880s and 890s while it verified in the low 910s.  Still very impressive but not ridiculously historic.

That was because of the track. It wound up going over Cuba. It was about to take off right before interacting with Cuba. Not saying it reaches 880s, but it had a shot at below 900 give the environment. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

That was because of the track. It wound up going over Cuba. It was about to take off right before interacting with Cuba. Not saying it reaches 880s, but it had a shot at below 900 give the environment. 

And it still reintensified to Cat 5 before hitting Cuba

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I still firmly believe that the Euro and GFS are too far East. The H5 pattern says this should be tucked right into the NJ coast.

Those hurricane models are pretty far to the east too and although I don't usually like them as much beyond 72 that would be one hell of a track error in an otherwise non convoluted pattern 

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted

Thar he blows -

5 pm Public Adv - 

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 70.3W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system.  A Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for a portion of the
coast of North Carolina on Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion is
expected today, follow by a turn to the north-northwest by late
Saturday and toward the north on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast through
Saturday, with weakening possibly beginning on late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure as estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Consistent with the earlier satellite data, the hurricane reconnaissance plane found that Jose had regained hurricane strength. In addition, it continued to track northwestward and crossed 70°W longitude. As a consequence, probability of U.S. landfall based on historic climatology has increased. U.S. and Canadian landfall are now about equally likely.

- One third of hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 5 pm position made U.S. landfall (1851-present)
- Half of those storms that made landfall came ashore anywhere from North Carolina to New England
- 72% of the storms that made landfall did so as Category 1 or 2 hurricanes
- The favored spot for landfall in Canada shifted from Newfoundland and Labrador to Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia landfall occurred more than twice as frequently as Newfoundland and Labrador landfall from the above sample of hurricanes.

Overall, the 12z ECMWF ensembles are closest to the picture painted by historic climatology. This gives me a measure of confidence in the overall probabilistic scenario shown on the EPS where most members keep Jose offshore. Some areas along the coastline from North Carolina to New England will likely experience tropical storm conditions.

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RevWarReenactor

RevWarReenactor

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Highly doubt this will hold the tropical look the Euro still has, it already has that stretched out subtropical appearance right now.

If it tracks near the BM then we should see some indirect effects probably similar to a nor'easter.

Nah, if it tracks near the BM as currently depicted, maybe some good surf, a gust of wind and some heavy cloud cover. Cape cod might get a 60mph wind gust and a rain shower or two.

I think the biggest mistake people make, I know I've made it many times, is thinking that a Hurricane can sit 100 miles off shore and will still be a decent impact. Not usually.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Nah, if it tracks near the BM as currently depicted, maybe some good surf, a gust of wind and some heavy cloud cover. Cape cod might get a 60mph wind gust and a rain shower or two.

I think the biggest mistake people make, I know I've made it many times, is thinking that a Hurricane can sit 100 miles off shore and will still be a decent impact. Not usually.

As long as it doesn't undergo some sort of transition.  We are getting late enough in the season now I think this may begin to but probably not to the degree the GFS is trying to show 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Nah, if it tracks near the BM as currently depicted, maybe some good surf, a gust of wind and some heavy cloud cover. Cape cod might get a 60mph wind gust and a rain shower or two.

I think the biggest mistake people make, I know I've made it many times, is thinking that a Hurricane can sit 100 miles off shore and will still be a decent impact. Not usually.

Both the GFS and Euro bring strong winds into the coastal plain just above the surface, so would expect some strong winds in the outer bands.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
3 hours ago, Paragon said:
As it did with Irma.  It had Irma in the 880s and 890s while it verified in the low 910s.  Still very impressive but not ridiculously historic.
 

Without a Cuban interaction, that likely verifies.

I still think it would be very difficult for it to challenge Wilma's pressure records because it was bound to interact with land even with a thread the needle track.

About Jose, looks like it tracks further southwest in its track early on, so it looks like the 18z GFS trended west of 12z.  Could get tropical force gusts to the Jersey shore and NYC.  This still has room to trend further west, especially with how much it went SW early on in the 18z track forecast.

Interesting that it's forecast to be stronger now too, and interesting intensity forecast put out by the NHC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 27.1N  70.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 27.8N  71.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 28.8N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 29.9N  72.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 31.4N  72.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 33.9N  72.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 36.7N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 40.0N  69.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

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