Amped Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 28 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Maria (M Storm) will probably deliver for the EC if she forms but that is a story for another day. Perhaps not NJ or New England but somebody from Miami to ME. It's day 10, but that pattern though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 The 12z UKMET looks close to the GFS track. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z UKMET looks close to the GFS track. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Cmc is west of gfs and tucked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 OT, but if you look @ the Ukie at 144 hours you see a TS developing in the W Atlantic.....Also, as posted in the other hurricane thread, the 12z GFS shows a major TS hitting the SE Coast during 200-252 hours. As for Jose, question, when is the last time besides Sandy that a tropical system has made landfall North of the Mid-Atantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said: Either way it stays over warm water the end result is the same verbatim. Just more Sandy-esque rather than something more novel. Stop with the Sandy comparisons. In no way, shape or form is Jose going to be anywhere near the monster that Sandy was, with the lowest barometric pressure of a landfalling hurricane (yes, it should've never been declassified as extratropical right before landfall, if only for emergency response reasons) at 940 mbar. Even the roided up GFS today only has Jose between 950-960 mbar as it reaches 40N near NJ/NY, while last night's Euro was more like 970 mbar. Sandy also had the 2nd highest integrated kinetic energy at landfall of any landfalling hurricane in the satellite era in the Atlantic. Sure the max winds weren't Andrew's 160 mph+, but Sandy was much larger and its overall storm energy was much greater than Andrew's, which is why Andrew had a catastrophic impact on only a small area, while Sandy had major to catastrophic impacts (especially storm surge) over a much, much larger area. Jose is no Sandy - the only thing that could look similar is the track (but not the impact) if Jose makes a NW move into NJ/NYC, which his not anticipated. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/sandy-packed-more-total-energy-than-katrina-at-landfall/2012/11/02/baa4e3c4-24f4-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html?utm_term=.4263a0922f39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdennis78 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Stop with the Sandy comparisons. In no way, shape or form is Jose going to be anywher near the monster that Sandy was, with the lowest barometric pressure of a landfalling hurricane (yes, it should've never been declassified as extratropical right before landfall, if only for emergency response reasons) at 940 mbar. Even the roided up GFS today only has Jose between 950-960 mbar as it reaches 40N near NJ/NY, while last night's Euro was more like 970 mbar. Sandy also had the 2nd highest integrated kinetic energy at landfall of any landfalling hurricane in the satellite era in the Atlantic. Sure the max winds weren't Andrew's 160 mph+, but Sandy was much larger and its overall storm energy was much greater than Andrew's, which is why Andrew had a catastrophic impact on only a small area, while Sandy had major to catastrophic impacts (especially storm surge) over a much, much larger area. Jose is no Sandy - the only thing that could look similar is the track (but not the impact) if Jose makes a NW move into NJ/NYC, which his not anticipated. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/sandy-packed-more-total-energy-than-katrina-at-landfall/2012/11/02/baa4e3c4-24f4-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html?utm_term=.4263a0922f39 Thanks for this. Sandy was freak situation and it's kind of odd and bizarre that some posters seem to be wishing that something like that would happen. Another poster called Sandy a "garbage storm", which is pretty much utter and total B.S. because it ruined people's lives. I thought that this forum was better moderated and maintained than the Accuweather one, but apparently anyone can just put up non-cited, non-researched garbage up here. I thought that there was a banter thread for crappy conversation, and that the storm threads were for discussion of the models, trends, and forecasts with cited scientific or meteorological data. User donaldsutherland1 should be everyone's model. Moderators? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 The mean track on the 12z GEFS is right over the 40/70BM and then just SE of the Cape. Very good agreement through 78hrs. It also appears that there are less Eastern outliers vs 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Recon found 985mb, which is 4mb lower than the last advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Navgem is still west of gfs and near li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Navgem is still west of gfs and near li Navgem is still the worst performing model for tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 52 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Recon found 985mb, which is 4mb lower than the last advisory Also that's it's a hurricane again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Jose missing the trough on the 12z ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Steering flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Noticeably slower and south of the GFS thru 12z Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 With the trough gone, the only hope is that some of the leftover energy over the Ohio Valley pushes it East, but Southwesterly winds are more or less non existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: With the trough gone, the only hope is that some of the leftover energy over the Ohio Valley pushes it East, but Southwesterly winds are more or less non existent. Lol @ you pretending you don't want it to make landfall over your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 The final question then is, does this feel the trough just enough at the end in order to pull it more NNE, keeping the center offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Jose gets left behind, and now a ridge starts to build in over SE Canada like the 00z run. Winds switch to out of the Northwest thanks to the clockwise rotation around the developing high, and Jose should start moving Southward again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Euro is west of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Jose starting to move SSE late next week, meanwhile future Lee/Maria is moving North of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Strong block to the north doesn't let Jose get past the benchmark before it's forced south through 168 hrs on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Let's see if the next trough swinging by is finally going to sweep Jose out, or if he's already too far South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Stop with the Sandy comparisons. In no way, shape or form is Jose going to be anywhere near the monster that Sandy was, with the lowest barometric pressure of a landfalling hurricane (yes, it should've never been declassified as extratropical right before landfall, if only for emergency response reasons) at 940 mbar. Even the roided up GFS today only has Jose between 950-960 mbar as it reaches 40N near NJ/NY, while last night's Euro was more like 970 mbar. Sandy also had the 2nd highest integrated kinetic energy at landfall of any landfalling hurricane in the satellite era in the Atlantic. Sure the max winds weren't Andrew's 160 mph+, but Sandy was much larger and its overall storm energy was much greater than Andrew's, which is why Andrew had a catastrophic impact on only a small area, while Sandy had major to catastrophic impacts (especially storm surge) over a much, much larger area. Jose is no Sandy - the only thing that could look similar is the track (but not the impact) if Jose makes a NW move into NJ/NYC, which his not anticipated. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/sandy-packed-more-total-energy-than-katrina-at-landfall/2012/11/02/baa4e3c4-24f4-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html?utm_term=.4263a0922f39 Sandy was so huge there was flooding going on in Lake Michigan near Chicago because of it. The landfall pressure was likely in the 930s. Which storm is number one on the IKE list? I thought Sandy was #1 and it wasn't even close. Is it Isabel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Well this is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Sandy was so huge there was flooding going on in Lake Michigan near Chicago because of it. The landfall pressure was likely in the 930s. Which storm is number one on the IKE list? I thought Sandy was #1 and it wasn't even close. Is it Isabel? TIKE vs IKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 That trough misses Jose too, and now we have two TC's moving towards the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: That trough misses Jose too, and now we have two TC's moving towards the coast Wonder if there is any history of that happening before on the EC (& outside of FL, assuming this scenario actually plays out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 LOL -- if 12z Euro's double barrel, simultaneous hurricane landfall scenario panned out this board would immediately combust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Getting into La la land now, but it would certainly be one of the strangest setups I can recall. The next trough is digging Southeast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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