Tropical Storm Jose

[NJwx85]

Recon is en route to Jose. They left Mobile, AL a short time ago.

[Paragon]

16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No,

The impacts at this time look comparable to a strong Noreaster in the NYC area, assuming a more Northwesterly track wins out.

I was thinking more of a Perfect Storm kind of scenario, maybe with more rain.  That storm did not make landfall either- I think the closest it got was 200 miles east of ACY.

[Paragon]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, all the blocking north of Jose right up to the AO region has been trending stronger in recent runs.

 

Chris and Don, if this strong blocking persists it may have implications for the winter forecast, I remember we talked about the October blocking-to-winter connection awhile back.

 

[Paragon]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The GFS ensembles are currently forecasting the development of a period of abnormally strong blocking beyond mid-September. A cluster of ensemble members suggest that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) could fall to between -3.000 and -2.000 over the next 7-10 days.

The developing blocking could have some implications for Jose's track. The odds of an impact from North Carolina to New England, even if landfall does not occur, are likely increasing. The potential for tropical storm conditions affecting the Cape Hatteras region, Suffolk County, and then Cape Cod have increased. Should Jose undergo extratropical transition, its wind field would expand even farther, which could allow gale-force winds to potentially affect a much larger portion of the coast, including the Delmarva, Jersey Shore, and coastal Connecticut.

Should the forecast blocking develop, it could further enhance prospects of U.S. landfall for TD 14 (future Lee), assuming it survives on its way westward across the Atlantic, and 96L (future Maria).

Separately, some of the satellite guidance suggests that Jose might have returned to hurricane status.

Don some of the ultra LR guidance was indicating that we might have more MA and NE threats to track beyond Jose (as early as a week after.)

[NJwx85]

Just now, Paragon said:

I was thinking more of a Perfect Storm kind of scenario, maybe with more rain.

The unnamed hurricane stayed well offshore. 

[Paragon]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

The unnamed hurricane stayed well offshore. 

Yeah I think the closest it got was 200 miles east of ACY (the Perfect Storm, I mean; the unnamed hurricane was a separate entity.)

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Chris and Don, if this strong blocking persists it may have implications for the winter forecast, I remember we talked about the October blocking-to-winter connection awhile back.

 

In the past, there have been a number of cases where the development of strong blocking in early autumn was an indicator of a blocky winter. However, the AO cannot be forecast with reliability at seasonal timescales. Early promise from such approaches linked to the advance of Eurasian snow cover has not worked out. Had one relied on Eurasian snow cover, recent winters should have featured a lot of blocking. In fact, the AO+ dominated. 

[jbenedet]

36 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Are we looking like a Sandy event for the NYC area if the track moves more towards the west ? 

No. I think the primary distinction will be that Jose will look and act more tropical than Sandy did when she made it into the subtropics. Intensity, and track will be quite different as well. That much is already clear.

In addition, Sandy was a much more complex system. The baroclinic factor that was critical to Sandy's evolution is quite limited with Jose.

 

[donsutherland1]

The 500 mb pattern is forecast to evolve toward a pattern that is similar to the one that was in place when Hurricane Esther was moving north-northeastward along the Middle Atlantic Coast in 1961. Eventually, that major hurricane made an anti-cyclonic loop after passing east of Montauk Point before finally making landfall in Massachusetts as a tropical storm.

The exact details will make a large difference where Jose ultimately tracks. Historic climatology still gives Jose a 1-in-4 probability of U.S. landfall. The ensembles suggest a somewhat higher risk, as does the developing blocking.

According to the historic climatology for tropical cyclones passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 11 am position, the region from North Carolina to New England would be at the highest risk of U.S. landfall. Among the storms in that data set were the 1893 Midnight Hurricane (New York landfall), the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 (North Carolina landfall and then north and eastward), and Hurricane Esther.

Given the continuing uncertainty associated with Jose's track, a track 100 miles on either side of Esther's track prior to its loop is a plausible scenario. It appears that the risk of impacts, including the possibility of tropical storm conditions, has increased for North Carolina's Outer Banks and then Suffolk County into eastern New England.

[NJwx85]

Around 72hrs, the GFS starts moving on a NW heading towards the coast. It's East of the 00z run, but in line with the 06z run thus far.

As you can see, the initial trough is gone

The ridge builds to the North and Jose has no choice but to follow the Easterly flow on the Southern periphery of the ridge.

[NJwx85]

The next question is, does the next trough have a chance to come in and kick Jose OTS.

Look how far away the trough is. Logic says this has a lot more room to come further West.

[NJwx85]

Extra-tropical transition begins around day 4, the wind field begins to expand substantially.

[Vice-Regent]

Looks like it wants to come back into the coast. GFS initialization seems a shade too far NE. That made all the difference guys.

[NJwx85]

The trough is way up near Hudson Bay, and lifting out. The window for Jose to kick OTS is closing.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said:

Looks like it wants to come back into the coast. GFS initialization seems a shade too far NE. That made all the difference guys.

Yeah...no

[NJwx85]

LF looks imminent, ridge locked in over Northern New England.

[Vice-Regent]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yeah...no

Either way it stays over warm water the end result is the same verbatim. Just more Sandy-esque rather than something more novel.

[NJwx85]

Not sure if Jose escapes East at the very last second, but looks like a terrible run for Nantucket and Cape Cod

[jbenedet]

We lost the Quebec shortwave kicker this run. As i stated previously, this run seems more realistic.

This would have ended up west of 6z, and similar to 0z if the recurve north didn't happen more aburptly through 36 hr.

We should be able to narrow the cone substaintially by this time tomorrow, as the recurve north will have already started. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

LF looks imminent, ridge locked in over Northern New England.

I dont see any steering currents taking it west nor the ridge locked in forcing Jose west. I could be wrong though

 

[Vice-Regent]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

We lost the Quebec shortwave kicker this run. As i stated previously, this run seems more realistic.

This would have ended up west of 6z, and similar to 0z if the recurve north didn't happen more aburptly through 36 hr.

 

it's a real shame for hurricane enthusiasts. This setup is gold for NE landfalls yet sensitive to small changes (typical of NE hurricanes). However I would continue to monitor the short term motion.

[Amped]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The trough is way up near Hudson Bay, and lifting out. The window for Jose to kick OTS is closing.

If it trends further west this will Jose will get captured at least partially. 

[Vice-Regent]

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

it's a real shame for hurricane enthusiasts. This setup is gold for NE landfalls yet sensitive to small changes (typical of NE hurricanes). However I would continue to monitor the short term motion.

Yea. This remains a close call for eastern LI and SE New England because we are lacking longitude right out of the gate.

[donsutherland1]

No U.S. landfall but a very close pass to Nantucket (map from Weather.us):

[Vice-Regent]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea. This remains a close call for eastern LI and SE New England because we are lacking longitude right out of the gate.

Maria (M Storm) will probably deliver for the EC if she forms but that is a story for another day. Perhaps not NJ or New England but somebody from Miami to ME.

[SnoSki14]

Have to monitor for future west trends due to increased blocking. Jose is close to getting forced more to the west as it treks up the coast. 

[klw]

Anyone know Jose's ACE is?  Is there a good link on where to get that info?

Thanks

 

 

EDIT:  It is 31.1

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=12

[NJwx85]

Listen, it's pretty clear Jose misses the first trough, that's strike one. If the second trough is too far North, that's strike two, and if the ridge rebuilds to the North, that's strike three. We should know by tomorrow honestly. 

[forkyfork]

no way it's going to be 966 mb that far north without a big phasing event