Tropical Storm Jose

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, EJM said:

 

Hopefully those are two different systems and not the same 976mb L 156 hours apart that moved from Montauk to Cape Cod in the span of about a week

[csnavywx]

Last 4 runs of the EPS have seen a decided, steady westward shift of the track and strengthening of the WAR.

[Paragon]

7 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Last 4 runs of the EPS have seen a decided, steady westward shift of the track and strengthening of the WAR.

It's in the midrange now, so these "trends" are becoming more concerning.

[MJO812]

Navgem has Jose into central NJ

[Paragon]

7 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Fwiw the Nam 0z run at 84hrs has Jose way west of any model. Probably not worth much because it's the nam at 84 hrs but remember the blizzard of 2016

Looks like every model and their brother ensembles are trending to the west, and I certainly remember the blizzard that gave me over 30" of snow!

 

[MJO812]

6Z gfs shifts east with a 954 low just east of LI

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017091506&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=46

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

6Z gfs shifts east with a 954 low just east of LI

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017091506&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=46

Looks like they're just wobbling around right now- just east of LI is well within the margin of error; it was in Eastern LI with the last run.

The really big thing to me is how intense the storm is now forecast to be- 954 mb?!  Any more of that looping/retrograde stuff?

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Looks like they're just wobbling around right now- just east of LI is well within the margin of error; it was in Eastern LI with the last run.

The really big thing to me is how intense the storm is now forecast to be- 954 mb?!  Any more of that looping/retrograde stuff?

Not on this run. Jose makes landfall on Nantucket.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[Paragon]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Not on this run. Jose makes landfall on Nantucket.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

With both last night's 0z run and this 6z run when is the rain and wind supposed to start for our area?  Monday night or Tuesday?

[NJwx85]

29 minutes ago, Paragon said:

With both last night's 0z run and this 6z run when is the rain and wind supposed to start for our area?  Monday night or Tuesday?

It seems that Tuesday is the day for the NYC area, however there could be a substantial PRE on Monday as indicated in some of the modeling.

[winterymix]

Jose has been a named system for ten days already and is moving at a leasurely 8 mph.

Persistence is a useful tool in appropriate situations and Jose seems to be one of those.

Worst case scenario seems to be that Jose will continue to be a slow moving system as either

a weak hurricane or as a steady state tropical storm.   Sure, Jose can visit at or near the US coastline

after about five days but it doesn't seem that Jose will have any ugly surprises up its sleeves.  The potential

for strengthening seems quite limited.

[Paragon]

59 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It seems that Tuesday is the day for the NYC area, however there could be a substantial PRE on Monday as indicated in some of the modeling.

They had an interesting map up on TWC showing tropical storm winds possibly getting into S NJ by Monday morning and then into NYC, NE NJ and LI by Monday evening and rain falling from Monday thru Wednesday (POP between 40 and 60 percent with windy conditions) and then they said it could loop back into NJ for next weekend.

 

[Paragon]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That one phased more energy with a bigger chunk of vorticity. In any event, the 0Z Euro and EPS  came west and has the OP looping back at the end of the run. But you can still see the Euro absorbing the leftover Irma vort. Theses type of interactions add an extra level of complexity and uncertainty to the forecast.

 

 

 

That landfall the Euro has at 222hr is when it will be quite weak, I think? In the MA forum they were talking about a 1007 mb low at that point.

[MJO812]

6Z Navgem still has Jose slamming into NJ

[RU848789]

15 minutes ago, Paragon said:

That landfall the Euro has at 222hr is when it will be quite weak, I think? In the MA forum they were talking about a 1007 mb low at that point.

Correct.  The weak remains and low probability of another such loop in the very long term are why I didn't even include that as a possibility in my email updates on the storm.  But here's Day 9, if curious...

[larrye]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like Euro shifted west, still far offshore though.

But appears to do a "loop-de-loop" and sends Jose back west into NJ.

[Paragon]

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Correct.  The weak remains and low probability of another such loop in the very long term are why I didn't even include that as a possibility in my email updates on the storm.  But here's Day 9, if curious...

Yep and by that time there will probably be more interest in that 992 mb situation heading through the Bahamas!

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, larrye said:

But appears to do a "loop-de-loop" and sends Jose back west into NJ.

What's the difference between a loop de loop and a regular loop? Is a loop de loop a loop inside a loop? I got confused because I see those terms used interchangeably.

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, Paragon said:

What's the difference between a loop de loop and a regular loop? Is a loop de loop a loop inside a loop? I got confused because I see those terms used interchangeably.

yes...loop de loop term is derived from the French "lupe de la lupe" coined during French-Indo China conflict of 1899 when the French troops would loop twice to confuse their enemies by pretending to retreat then return. 

[jbenedet]

24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Correct.  The weak remains and low probability of another such loop in the very long term are why I didn't even include that as a possibility in my email updates on the storm.  But here's Day 9, if curious...

Seems more likely to me the euro doesn't want to break down the WAR but does anyway. The loop is the result.

The interaction with the trough passing through Quebec is tenuous. My best guess is that wouldn't happen at all. 

That trough is also going to have significant difficulty digging with the -PNA  so amped like that. With UL heights being pumped into southern Canada it should really hinder wave amplification in Eastern Canada and keep the jet displaced well to the north.

[Paragon]

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Seems more likely to me the euro doesn't want to break down the WAR but does anyway. The loop is the result.

The interaction with the trough passing through Quebec is tenuous. My best guess is that wouldn't happen at all. 

That trough is also going to have significant difficulty digging with the -PNA  so amped like that. With UL heights being pumped into southern Canada it should really hinder wave amplification in Eastern Canada and keep the jet displaced well to the north.

Thanks for the astute analysis- given the above, do you expect the models to continue trending to the west?

[Paragon]

Just now, bluewave said:

It doesn't really pay to look at the models for their exact solutions past 120 hours since none of them have been consistent so far. But the stronger blocking and potential vort interaction may lead to a track further west than we typically see with storms that have taken Jose's path so far in the past.

No clear model leaders with Jose

 

 

 

 

Weird thing is these tracks were exceedingly rare (they still are but we see them modeled more and more often now) and now for some reason (perhaps due to more anomalous blocking) we see the chances increasing.

 

[jbenedet]

18 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Thanks for the astute analysis- given the above, do you expect the models to continue trending to the west?

Not necessarily all guidance trend west but as of now I think the guidance showing a hard right that occurs around 40N will correct west. 

I like a middle ground, more similar to last nights 0z GFS--after the recurve north, the track is virtually due north until landfall. And the ridge to his west is the kicker--not the trough-- that finally boots him ots as the amplifying shortwave over the Midwest forces the ridge over the eastern CONUS east.

[donsutherland1]

The GFS ensembles are currently forecasting the development of a period of abnormally strong blocking beyond mid-September. A cluster of ensemble members suggest that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) could fall to between -3.000 and -2.000 over the next 7-10 days.

The developing blocking could have some implications for Jose's track. The odds of an impact from North Carolina to New England, even if landfall does not occur, are likely increasing. The potential for tropical storm conditions affecting the Cape Hatteras region, Suffolk County, and then Cape Cod have increased. Should Jose undergo extratropical transition, its wind field would expand even farther, which could allow gale-force winds to potentially affect a much larger portion of the coast, including the Delmarva, Jersey Shore, and coastal Connecticut.

Should the forecast blocking develop, it could further enhance prospects of U.S. landfall for TD 14 (future Lee), assuming it survives on its way westward across the Atlantic, and 96L (future Maria).

Separately, some of the satellite guidance suggests that Jose might have returned to hurricane status.

[Sportybx]

Are we looking like a Sandy event for the NYC area if the track moves more towards the west ? 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

Are we looking like a Sandy event for the NYC area if the track moves more towards the west ? 

No,

The impacts at this time look comparable to a strong Noreaster in the NYC area, assuming a more Northwesterly track wins out.

[donsutherland1]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It doesn't really pay to look at the models for their exact solutions past 120 hours since none of them have been consistent so far. But the stronger blocking and potential vort interaction may lead to a track further west than we typically see with storms that have taken Jose's path so far in the past.

No clear model leaders with Jose

 

 

 

 

IMO, great post. The AO forecast has been trending more negative in recent runs. Blocking could become an important factor.

[Sportybx]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

No,

The impacts at this time look comparable to a strong Noreaster in the NYC area, assuming a more Northwesterly track wins out.

Even with the new moon on the 19tth of Sept 

[jojo762]

Just now, Sportybx said:

Are we looking like a Sandy event for the NYC area if the track moves more towards the west ? 

Won't be nearly as strong as Sandy was, and Sandy also had a strong mid/upr level trough to steer it westward (aided by the war as well), making a nearly perpendicular angle to the coast at landfall. Surge was quite bad because of this... Jose appears to be taking a much more northwesterly track than sandy with the absence of a trough or cutoff to pull him westward. 

[NJwx85]

12 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Even with the new moon on the 19tth of Sept 

The two really don't look comparable at this time. Sandy phased with a deep trough over the East coast which induced extra-tropical transition, which increased the wind field and helped Sandy maintain its strength further North. With Jose you simply have a trapped cyclone that's slowly moving Westward thanks to the blocking high pressure.