Amped Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Looks like Rhode Island landfall this run @ 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 00z GFS skims eastern Long Island late Tuesday/early Wednesday. This is getting interesting. Let's see what the Euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Well... that was interesting. Slowing down the Baja Storm made a difference. Gulf ridge is much flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Slowing down the Baja Storm made a difference. Gulf ridge is much flatter. Looks to me that the difference is up in SE Canada. That trough near Hudson Bay is much flatter and the W Atlantic/Canadian Maritime ridge remains much stronger forcing Jose west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Looks to me that the difference is up in SE Canada. That trough near Hudson Bay is much flatter and the W Atlantic/Canadian Maritime ridge remains much stronger forcing Jose west. This still comes down the WAR. It appears that it's strong enough to keep her running N while the trough can't kick her out fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Looks to me that the difference is up in SE Canada. That trough near Hudson Bay is much flatter and the W Atlantic/Canadian Maritime ridge remains much stronger forcing Jose west. Yeah I was looking at the 200mb wind field. But yeah, that troff doesn't dig as much either and doesn't kick Jose east until too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 I still think this is a "minor event" regardless. Probably a 60-70 mph system tops... similar to Irene and since it likely would be hitting less populated areas with its eastern side you'd probably need this to come in at dead high tide. I think this forecast will be easy once we get past the next 48 hours and see how far west it gets because it probably continues at furthest west a 360 motion once it turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 9/20 12z (Weather.us): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Looks like the further south it makes landfall the stronger it'll be (no surprise there). To truly get a significant impact Jose will probably have to hit from SNJ to the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I still think this is a "minor event" regardless. Probably a 60-70 mph system tops... similar to Irene and since it likely would be hitting less populated areas with its eastern side you'd probably need this to come in at dead high tide. I think this forecast will be easy once we get past the next 48 hours and see how far west it gets because it probably continues at furthest west a 360 motion once it turns. "Similar to Irene"... yet you call it a minor event. Irene caused $15.6 billion in damages in the U.S. alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: "Similar to Irene"... yet you call it a minor event. Irene caused $15.6 billion in damages in the U.S. alone. Most of that was because of flooding and the fact it hit the NYC metro. If this comes into E LI or SNE as a 60-70 mph storm it likely would not come close to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 I live in Virginia and calling Irene minor seems a bit harsh to the people who were affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Most of that was because of flooding and the fact it hit the NYC metro. If this comes into E LI or SNE as a 60-70 mph storm it likely would not come close to that What are the chances this come more west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 What a nutty pattern, gfs actually retrogrades whatever's left of Jose back towards NJ and then you have Maria cutting through the Caribbean. Extremely amplified pattern for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 00z UKMET TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 67.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2017 25.1N 67.6W MODERATE 12UTC 15.09.2017 25.8N 69.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2017 26.7N 71.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 27.8N 72.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2017 28.6N 73.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 29.3N 73.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2017 30.4N 73.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.09.2017 31.7N 73.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2017 32.8N 73.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2017 34.5N 72.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 36.7N 71.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 38.5N 70.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2017 40.0N 67.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Another cane (Maria, or Lee if TD14 doesn't develop into a TS) hot on the trails of Jose headed toward the EC by late September on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Olaf....That 2nd map you posted from the Ukie is last night's 00z 144hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Another cane (Maria, or Lee if TD14 doesn't develop into a TS) hot on the trails of Jose headed toward the EC by late September on the 00z GFS. Yeah, it's another hit on Cape Cod, at hour 288, lol. Certainly stuff to track, at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Olaf....That 2nd map you posted from the Ukie is last night's 00z 144hr Ukie looks like the gfs from 18z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 CMC makes landfall in SE MA looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: CMC makes landfall in SE MA looks like Pretty close to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Gefs are west of 18z and look very similiar to the op maybe slightly east into eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EJM Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 32 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Yeah, it's another hit on Cape Cod, at hour 288, lol. Certainly stuff to track, at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Looks like Euro shifted west, still far offshore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 6 hours ago, bluewave said: The only really interesting part of the Jose forecast is when it phases with the remnant Irma vort in a few days. I am not sure if we have seen a an active hurricane off the East Coast absorb a remnant hurricane vort before. Sheared out remnant Irma vort currently over SE PA Gets absorbed into Jose and the wind field expands. But will this process result in any more of a tug closer to the coast than just a brush of the BM? Stay tuned.. Chris, did something similar to this kind of absorption happen with the Perfect Storm? Also, as a sequel to that, there was a later un-named hurricane that developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 5 hours ago, yoda said: Huh? what is this? it's a running gag from the NYC forum, he (Tony) runs his own "model" called the MAM and posts its "output" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I still think this is a "minor event" regardless. Probably a 60-70 mph system tops... similar to Irene and since it likely would be hitting less populated areas with its eastern side you'd probably need this to come in at dead high tide. I think this forecast will be easy once we get past the next 48 hours and see how far west it gets because it probably continues at furthest west a 360 motion once it turns. On the other hand, an Irene-like storm shifted further east would mean the flooding rains that fell over NJ and Eastern PA would fall over NYC and Long Island instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: 9/20 12z (Weather.us): Similar to where Bob made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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