jbenedet Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Most notable to me is the euro and gfs continue to correct further south and west with Jose's track through 72 hrs. The trend has been for about 4 consecutive runs already... If this trend continues with a ~150 mile shift further W/SW the chances of a direct hit in the MA/NE either as a result of a block/retrograde evolution or recurve NNE/NE following a trough interaction greatly increases from a current low probability. The west most tracks per the NHC's latest cone certainly imply Jose bears close watching based on the various H500 outcomes we have seen thus far on guidance beyond day 5. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: If the 6z GFS is right, we'll be nearing the end of September, Lee will be a memory following South Carolina landfall, and we will still be pondering Jose's fate. Maybe this is how Saturn got it's spot..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 I didn't see any mention of the 00z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 6z GEFS with another shift west. Quite a few members are packed closely to the coast, and the mean takes the center close to the BM. Tracks him due north until he's about 200 miles south of MTK, and then sends him ENE ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: 6z GEFS with another shift west. Quite a few members are packed closely to the coast, and the mean takes the center close to the BM. Tracks him due north until he's about 200 miles south of MTK, and then sends him ENE ots. Two of the tropical models see something similar with an approach to the coastline at 120 hours. It seems Jose is a surfer's dream with nice rollers when conditions are just right. Nothing destructive though and an eventual OTS finale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, winterymix said: Two of the tropical models see something similar with an approach to the coastline at 120 hours. It seems Jose is a surfer's dream with nice rollers when conditions are just right. Nothing destructive though and an eventual OTS finale. That is certainly the consensus at this point. But that trough interaction is 6 days out. So the hard recurve ots is the most uncertain aspect of this forecast right now. It's conceivable we see the trough dig further/faster, on future guidance, yielding more interaction to pull him N/NNE as opposed to ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 6z GEFS mean definitely in agreement with the furthest west tracks through hr 120... To my eye, all of those look too far east relative to the 6z GEFS mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: 6z GEFS with another shift west. Quite a few members are packed closely to the coast, and the mean takes the center close to the BM. Tracks him due north until he's about 200 miles south of MTK, and then sends him ENE ots. Looks like three main camps, one quick and OTS, a second camp that retrogrades back towards the coast and a third slower camp that still has Jose meandering around 240hr+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 16 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That is certainly the consensus at this point. But that trough interaction is 6 days out. So the hard recurve ots is the most uncertain aspect of this forecast right now. It's conceivable we see the trough dig further/faster, on future guidance, yielding more interaction to pull him N/NNE as opposed to ENE. Degree of typhoon recurve might have implications there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 13 hours ago, Sportybx said: It is a ****ty looking storm but It still had plenty of time to put some makeup on and get all pretty not with the way it is moving these storms always look like **** once they get far enough north . those waters killed sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Akeem the African Dream said: not with the way it is moving these storms always look like **** once they get far enough north . those waters killed sandy Only because Sandy stalled for a few hours off the coast. It was close to being a Cat 2 off the NJ coast before it stalled for a few hours (ironically the stall actually made it hit at high tide, so the impact might have been worse even though it was weaker when it made landfall.) And it still hit with 90-95 mph wind gusts. This storm is no Sandy but if it hit the coast at a high speed it wouldn't weaken much- the problem is it's weak to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 3 hours ago, Casualbrain said: Maybe this is how Saturn got it's spot..... You mean how Jupiter got it's spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: You mean how Jupiter got it's spot. lol they both have their "spots" it's just that Jupiter's are far easier to distinguish because of their color (especially that big one, the GRS, which is the width of three Earths.) You could never get something like that on Earth because gas giants like Jupiter and Saturn are entirely fluid and exist under intense pressures. I remember seeing something about a blizzard on Saturn once- any storm on one of those planets makes even the most powerful storm on Earth look puny- hell, they make the entire planet look puny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 25 minutes ago, Paragon said: Only because Sandy stalled for a few hours off the coast. It was close to being a Cat 2 off the NJ coast before it stalled for a few hours (ironically the stall actually made it hit at high tide, so the impact might have been worse even though it was weaker when it made landfall.) And it still hit with 90-95 mph wind gusts. This storm is no Sandy but if it hit the coast at a high speed it wouldn't weaken much- the problem is it's weak to begin with. lol @ 90-95 mph gusts what a garbage storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Is the sheer going to relax? This thing is getting torn apart, surprised its even survived to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: lol @ 90-95 mph gusts what a garbage storm Storm Surge is Sandy's calling card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: lol @ 90-95 mph gusts what a garbage storm The difference is that the infrastructure up here wasn't built to withstand those winds like it is down in Florida, and the NJ coast is highly built up and highly susceptible to storm surge, which is where most of the damage occurred. My house was fine, but I had no power for 12 days after Sandy. The power lines are above ground in most places around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Does anyone know if recon is scheduled anytime soon? I know they just blew the budget between Harvey, Katia and Jose when he was in the deep tropics, but I'm sure the models could use a little extra sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Does anyone know if recon is scheduled anytime soon? I know they just blew the budget between Harvey, Katia and Jose when he was in the deep tropics, but I'm sure the models could use a little extra sampling. Forgetting Irma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Forgetting Irma? Christ, so many storms I forgot one. Yeah...the budget is probably blown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Tropical Storm as of the 11AM advisory, expected to regain hurricane strength tomorrow however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Tropical Storm as of the 11AM advisory, expected to regain hurricane strength tomorrow however More importantly, the cone shifted west and now includes OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Has the poleward bias been addressed in the GFS yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 The 12z GFS shifted Southwest again beyond day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Would the south west movement seen on the models push the storm away from us or towards us? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Akeem the African Dream said: lol @ 90-95 mph gusts what a garbage storm I agree. The 10ft storm tide that came through my house was definitely garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Pretty damn close to the 06z GFS position by 12z Wed near the 40/70 BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Pretty damn close to the 06z GFS position by 12z Wed near the 40/70 BM. Really building that ridging too, it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Jose get inside the benchmark. I mean Irma was supposed to track just east of Florida at one point until stronger ridging prevailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdennis78 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 What is the 40/70 benchmark? I think I know but I don't want to vocalize my ignorance if I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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