Tropical Storm Jose

[Sportybx]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

lol this is awesome- people were talking about how great the Euro was with Irma (meanwhile it busted badly close in to the event- it was too far west), and now the Euro shows a hit.  What day/hour does it show it close to Long Island?

144-168 

[JC-CT]

It would be pretty pathetic by that time anyway.

[yoda]

Weeeeeeeeeeeee

 

 

 

 

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

144-168 

and the closest it gets is 100 miles from MTP?

[NJwx85]

Euro ends up landfalling in a similar position as Sandy, however it's weakening the whole way. At least it's a good rain maker for parts of SNE and the NYC area.

 

[Sportybx]

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Weeeeeeeeeeeee

 

 

 

 

it looks pretty strong at 144 and still decent at 168 but by 192 it's either a weak TS or extratropical. and 1010mb at 216 over DC? I wonder if it even has any precip associated with it at that point.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It would be pretty pathetic by that time anyway.

Yeah, but it looks like the Euro is treating it like an occluding non-tropical system. I wouldn't expect it to weaken quite as rapidly as depicted.

You can clearly see the trend towards a stronger WAR on the Euro.

[NJwx85]

You would probably see Hurricane strength gusts on most of LI and parts of SNE in this setup as 850/925mb winds are quite robust North of the center.

[Paragon]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

You would probably see Hurricane strength gusts on most of LI and parts of SNE in this setup as 850/925mb winds are quite robust North of the center.

This also looks like a long duration set up- similar to the Ash Wednesday 1962 storm or December 1992 noreaster.

 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

This also looks like a long duration set up- similar to the Ash Wednesday 1962 storm or December 1992 noreaster.

 

It's slowly moving in relatively weak steering currents, part of the reason why it weakens so much prior to landfall. It's too bad we don't have a trough digging Southeast trying to undercut the ridge.

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's slowly moving in relatively weak steering currents, part of the reason why it weakens so much prior to landfall. It's too bad we don't have a trough digging Southeast trying to undercut the ridge.

that's the missing piece we need to make it slingshot into the coast making it move more quickly than it can weaken.  Maybe this is something that can show up as we get closer to the event- sort of like how the Euro is now showing a stronger WAR?

 

[bdgwx]

Someone already mentioned that the 12Z UKMET has Jose off the coast of SC at D6. At D7 it is still moving due north and off the coast of Delaware. Jose definitely looks like a tough nut to crack.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

38 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It would be pretty pathetic by that time anyway.

Agreed, once out of the Gulf Stream and into the cool shelf waters unless it has barocynlinc help or extratropical, poof!

[jbenedet]

Euro weakens him too quickly based on his location with respect to the Gulf Stream at hr 144. Probably wouldn't expect much weakening until he moved north west of that position.

Doesn't really matter right now, considering that's still 6 days out but figured I'd point it out anyway.

Seperately, and more importantly short term and long term guidance in general --Euro included--has had an intensity bias for Jose indicating pressures too high versus what is being observed.

[NJwx85]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Euro weakens him too quickly based on his location with respect to the Gulf Stream at hr 144. Probably wouldn't expect much weakening until he moved north west of that position.

Doesn't really matter right now, considering that's still 6 days out but figured I'd point it out anyway.

Seperately, and more importantly short term and long term guidance in general --Euro included--has had an intensity bias for Jose indicating pressures too low versus what is being observed.

The UL pattern would be unusually favorable for that latitude with the Westerlies displaced well to the North. The only real weakening mechanism would be cooler SST's. Even dry air wouldn't be much of a problem since the flow would be off the ocean until the center moved West of 70W.

[MJO812]

Eps is west of 0z run but the mean doesn't have the retrogade like the op has . Plenty of members near the coast.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The UL pattern would be unusually favorable for that latitude with the Westerlies displaced well to the North. The only real weakening mechanism would be cooler SST's. Even dry air wouldn't be much of a problem since the flow would be off the ocean until the center moved West of 70W.

That's a good point. The big ridge would lessen shear which is unusual for this time of year. Just look at what shear did to Gloria. If it can shoot out of the Gulf Stream quickly we would be looking at an interesting situation

[Big Jims Videos]

Jose is the gift that keeps on giving-Jersey Shore surfers fantastic waves-

Did a story on the 4-6 foot barrels today-water is still warm, and they say it's the best waves they've seen around here in a decade thanks to Gert, Irma, and now Jose. 

[bobbutts]

I like the fake out by Jose on the 12z GFS.  Starts accelerating at the Mid-Atlantic/NE area, then reverses course.

Would probably generate some epic waves.

[donsutherland1]

At 5 pm, Hurricane Jose continued to make an anti-cyclonic loop. Despite the storm’s southward motion, U.S. landfall remains a low probability scenario. The probability of landfall in Canada remains somewhat higher than that for the U.S. A no landfall outcome is still somewhat more likely than not.

● Most of the ECMWF ensemble members continue to avoid U.S. landfall. There is a cluster of ensemble members that bring Jose ashore with the New Jersey coast’s being favored. The 12z ECMWF made landfall in the vicinity of Cape May.
● The 12z GFS and its ensembles were in general agreement with an offshore track.
● Since 1851, 7 of 34 hurricanes (21%) that passed within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s 5 pm position made U.S. landfall. For the last three NHC advisory positions, the moving average was 20%.
● 86% of the hurricanes in the sample that made U.S. landfall were Category 1 or Category 2 storms, with there being two landfalling Category 1 storms for every landfalling Category 2 storm.
● Landfall in Atlantic Canada was a somewhat more common outcome than U.S. landfall. Newfoundland and Labrador remained the favored spot for landfall in Canada.

 

[MattPetrulli]

And just when we think we can just about rule out US LF. Sigh.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

NHC not buying into the east coast threat at all. They didn't even adjust the track west with the 5pm update. I can't say I disagree. We could easily see the next suite move east again. This is really a thread the needle low probability event. For now I think the only safe bet is more waves which is fine with me!

[NJwx85]

From one of the best in the business

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/jose-could-impact-us-late-next-week/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4?SearchForm-input=jose could impact us late next week

[bigtenfan]

20 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Felix produced some tremendous surf during August 95. Long Island beaches were washed over and closed to swimming for almost 2 weeks. There was also some pretty severe beach erosion.

Jose, if he gets close enough will probably do the same but hardly anyone will notice as the beach season is effectively over 

We have a  New England/Canada cruise out of NYC planned for Sept 16th with stops in Boston on the 19th stops in Maine the 20th and 21st and the maritime provinces thereafter. Based on current projections just how rocky will it get?

 

Thanks in advance

[Amped]

Hermine had a similar pattern last year and went way east of all models.   There is no troff to the west to capture this storm.  Once it gets to 30 N it's drifting east.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

It would be pretty pathetic by that time anyway.

 A hybrid howler would probably be more exciting than a decaying category one. 

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, Amped said:

Hermine had a similar pattern last year and went way east of all models.   There is no troff to the west to capture this storm.  Once it gets to 30 N it's drifting east.

Once Jose misses the trough associated with the remnants of Irma the high builds overhead and the path OTS is blocked. 

[Amped]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Once Jose misses the trough associated with the remnants of Irma the high builds overhead and the path OTS is blocked. 

But so is the onshore route.  With southwesterly shear it will probably be able to drift northeast slowly but surely.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

But so is the onshore route.  With southwesterly shear it will probably be able to drift northeast slowly but surely.

Assuming that the second trough misses also, as it's modeled to be lifting out, and Jose survives the shear, then you get an Easterly flow under the Southern periphery of the high.