06Z Models 12/22/10

[am19psu]

I thought Cisco a week or so ago was talking about model consensus and the GFS-Ensembles? While I agree his forecast was based on the ECMWF in this case, you sure he has such a consistent bias?

95% (more?) of his discussions start with "Used the deterministic ECMWF to draw the Days 3-7 fronts and pressures" or "Used the ECMWF ensemble mean to draw the Days 3-7 fronts and pressures" or something similar.

[Chagrin Falls]

95% (more?) of his discussions start with "Used the deterministic ECMWF to draw the Days 3-7 fronts and pressures" or "Used the ECMWF ensemble mean to draw the Days 3-7 fronts and pressures" or something similar.

Well, I can't blame the guy for going with the top-of-the-line, foreign engineering.

[retusnmete8]

I thought Cisco a week or so ago was talking about model consensus and the GFS-Ensembles? While I agree his forecast was based on the ECMWF in this case, you sure he has such a consistent bias?

In any event, I doubt this storm will verify per the 00Z ECMWF. I was just looking at the 06Z GFS upper Midwest ridge is very strong (too strong, I'm thinking) while the "polar vortex" (for lack of a better term) is more progressive than the 00Z ECMWF. Anyway, I'm wondering if (snow lovers will hate this) if the future ECMWF runs will begin to track more easterly?

While the ECMWF solution would be epic, I wouldn't be suprised if this thing ends up taking a more easterly (ocean) trajectory.

I'm not saying the 06Z GFS is correct, but...it might be on to something.

I wouldn't be surprised given what we have seen. Past 24 hrs ECMWF has trended farther west if not mistaken.

The fun begins.

[Chagrin Falls]

I wouldn't be surprised given what we have seen. Past 24 hrs ECMWF has trended farther west if not mistaken.

The fun begins.

If I'm looking at stuff correctly I think the 00Z ECMWF ensemble is a good 100 miles or more east of the prelim HPC track.

I'd really like to see more upper-level amplification in the ensembles, which is kind of hard to get because of that danged polar vortex still in the western Atlantic.

It seems the upper-flow after this storm is going to be fast, zonal & progressive with a lot of Pacific energy being the main story. We are definitely starting a long-wave pattern change. Should be exciting to see how this plays out.

[showmethesnow]

No surprise here. DGEX out to sea.

[am19psu]

If I'm looking at stuff correctly I think the 00Z ECMWF ensemble is a good 100 miles or more east of the prelim HPC track.

I'd really like to see more upper-level amplification in the ensembles, which is kind of hard to get because of that danged polar vortex still in the western Atlantic.

It seems the upper-flow after this storm is going to be fast, zonal & progressive with a lot of Pacific energy being the main story. We are definitely starting a long-wave pattern change. Should be exciting to see how this plays out.

If you have access to the spaghetti charts, you'll see the Euro ops is about the 4th or 5th most amplified of all 51 members.

[mitchnick]

No surprise here. DGEX out to sea.

it runs off of GFS numbers after 84, so it should I would think

it will shift with GFS I would thinkas well

[KEITH L.I]

The early HPC prelim disco doesn't have the benefit of the Euro ensemble, but the one issued around 9am will (obviously). Cisco has a such an extreme bias toward the EC ops that it's hard to get much insight from his discussions, imo.

because in every east coast snowstorm euro always out performs the GFS..in the last 2 days Euro has locked on to a solution..the GFS is all over the place..12z yesterday it had snow in DC on christmas day, now it has the same low still in the gulf of Mexico on the 27th?..it will be proven again..save the 6z GFS this morning, you'll need it for future east coast storms

[showmethesnow]

it runs off of GFS numbers after 84, so it should I would think

it will shift with GFS I would think

Looking at the NAM 500 at 84 I expected it to be Out to sea. I was kind of surprised how suppressed it was though and the fact it doesn't phase until much later.

[showmethesnow]

Had a chance to look over the individual members for the 06Z GFS and it is starting to pop up Euro like solutions but just east of what the Euro shows. Not sure with the changes on the GFS if the bias of it coming in south and east still applys but if it does they show a very Euro look. Still have my doubts about the off runs of the GFS so I take it with a grain of salt.

[Swiscaster]

because in every east coast snowstorm euro always out performs the GFS..in the last 2 days Euro has locked on to a solution..the GFS is all over the place..12z yesterday it had snow in DC on christmas day, now it has the same low still in the gulf of Mexico on the 27th?..it will be proven again..save the 6z GFS this morning, you'll need it for future east coast storms

Is everyone forgetting that for 2 runs in a row last Thursday, the Euro predicted monster snow for New England (and much of the east coast) within 72 hours? And we all know how that ended up. To blindly go with the Euro solution in the face of overwhelming contradictory guidance by the other models would be foolish. I am pretty surprised at the HPC discussion in this regard as well.

[SteveB]

The GFS has been consistent in showing the OTS solution while the euro has been consistent in showing a big hit. We just toss the GFS because, well, it's the GFS?

Seems there are only a few people here that think the OTS scenario is possible. That odd since the Euro is essentially alone in it's mega-storm output.

[OSUmetstud]

The GFS has been consistent in showing the OTS solution while the euro has been consistent in showing a big hit. We just toss the GFS because, well, it's the GFS?

Seems there are only a few people here that think the OTS scenario is possible. That odd since the Euro is essentially alone in it's mega-storm output.

The GFS has been changing synoptically over the past day or so...so it's not really consistent per say. The southern energy has been slowing down...more consistent with the Euro.

I think a lot of people are considering the OTS solution.

[KEITH L.I]

Is everyone forgetting that for 2 runs in a row last Thursday, the Euro predicted monster snow for New England (and much of the east coast) within 72 hours? And we all know how that ended up. To blindly go with the Euro solution in the face of overwhelming contradictory guidance by the other models would be foolish. I am pretty surprised at the HPC discussion in this regard as well.

have you followed east coast snowstorms in the past?..btw with our Lake cutter a few weeks ago..Euro was alone with it's low near Chicago solution?..what happened?..GFS finally picked it up about 84 hours away .that's when you take that model seriously

[usedtobe]

have you followed east coast snowstorms in the past?..btw with our Lake cutter a few weeks ago..Euro was alone with it's low near Chicago solution?..what happened?..GFS finally picked it up about 84 hours away

The euro was the last model to forecast and east coast bomb for the non event this past sunday so it's not always right.

[ravensrule]

The euro was the last model to forecast and east coast bomb for the non event this past sunday so it's not always right.

Wes,

I hope your feeling much better this morning, did the 0z runs change your mind one way or the other at all?.

[OSUmetstud]

The euro was the last model to forecast and east coast bomb for the non event this past sunday so it's not always right.

The 00z Euro ensemble mean being 150 nm southeast of the benchmark (further southeast than 12z) certainly gives pause to buying the operational solution completely.

[SteveB]

Strongly agree OSU. It's hard to also ignore the fact that the Euro is a severe outlier thru 6z and clearly over-phased.

[Swiscaster]

have you followed east coast snowstorms in the past?..btw with our Lake cutter a few weeks ago..Euro was alone with it's low near Chicago solution?..what happened?..GFS finally picked it up about 84 hours away .that's when you take that model seriously

Yep, I've been following storms for decades. I'm not saying the model is bad. My point was that it is far from being gospel, even at 72 hours out, especially when most of the other models say something else. And a lot of people are taking it to be gospel right now, and we are 100+ hours out. Your point on the lakes cutter is decent, but every now and then a model scores a coup in the face of all the other models (see CRAS last year!). Doesn't mean that that model is always going to be right, or will even be right the next time.

[usedtobe]

If I'm looking at stuff correctly I think the 00Z ECMWF ensemble is a good 100 miles or more east of the prelim HPC track.

I'd really like to see more upper-level amplification in the ensembles, which is kind of hard to get because of that danged polar vortex still in the western Atlantic.

It seems the upper-flow after this storm is going to be fast, zonal & progressive with a lot of Pacific energy being the main story. We are definitely starting a long-wave pattern change. Should be exciting to see how this plays out.

They are and for places like dc would be a glancing blow, not a major snowstorm. At least that's what it looks like to me.

[A-L-E-X]

Yep, I've been following storms for decades. I'm not saying the model is bad. My point was that it is far from being gospel, even at 72 hours out, especially when most of the other models say something else. And a lot of people are taking it to be gospel right now, and we are 100+ hours out. Your point on the lakes cutter is decent, but every now and then a model scores a coup in the face of all the other models (see CRAS last year!). Doesn't mean that that model is always going to be right, or will even be right the next time.

Yes, who can ever forget the JMA scoring the coup with Feb 06!?

Now all that remains to be seen is to have either the NoGaps or KMA score a coup and then we would have seen everything.

Hell, the day the KMA starts making their maps readable will be enough of a coup for me.

[SnowGoose69]

have you followed east coast snowstorms in the past?..btw with our Lake cutter a few weeks ago..Euro was alone with it's low near Chicago solution?..what happened?..GFS finally picked it up about 84 hours away .that's when you take that model seriously

The Euro's best ever score was easily the SW flow event in the 08-09 winter that at Day 5-6 all the models had going across DC and the Euro came in tracking it across central upstate NY....within a day all the other models had it too.

[A-L-E-X]

They are and for places like dc would be a glancing blow, not a major snowstorm. At least that's what it looks like to me.

Sounds like Feb 1989, which we were talking about last night.

[A-L-E-X]

The Euro's best ever score was easily the SW flow event in the 08-09 winter that at Day 5-6 all the models had going across DC and the Euro came in tracking it across central upstate NY....within a day all the other models had it too.

I thought the Euro did rather well in Jan 1996 also-- but that might be considered ancient history now lol.

Did any model do well with March 2001?

[SnowGoose69]

I thought the Euro did rather well in Jan 1996 also-- but that might be considered ancient history now lol.

Did any model do well with March 2001?

The Euro has not been as good since its 2 upgrades in the last 4-5 years, it is still very good but I find it tends to have more big mistakes on major events than it did before that...its also possible the GFS has improved from what the AVN was.

[A-L-E-X]

The Euro has not been as good since its 2 upgrades in the last 4-5 years, it is still very good but I find it tends to have more big mistakes on major events than it did before that...its also possible the GFS has improved from what the AVN was.

Yea, I remember reading the ensemble mean had higher scores than the OP EURO after those "upgrades"-- especially at this time range.

[OSUmetstud]

The Euro has not been as good since its 2 upgrades in the last 4-5 years, it is still very good but I find it tends to have more big mistakes on major events than it did before that...its also possible the GFS has improved from what the AVN was.

I think it's possible 15 km resolution is a little tough to iterate in time for 240 hours and not get the occasional hiccup. We certainly observed it with some very odd ball solutions with hurricanes this past tropical season. The ECWMF had several runs in a row of bringing Fiona (I believe) further southwest and bombing it and bringing it into Florida, Cuba, and the GOM. It ended up passing by Bermuda with 20 kt winds and a few showers.

[mitchnick]

9z SREF's look really bad for a storm imho

[A-L-E-X]

I think it's possible 15 km resolution is a little tough to iterate in time for 240 hours and not get the occasional hiccup. We certainly observed it with some very odd ball solutions with hurricanes this past tropical season. The ECWMF had several runs in a row of bringing Fiona (I believe) further southwest and bombing it and bringing it into Florida, Cuba, and the GOM. It ended up passing by Bermuda with 20 kt winds and a few showers.

Isnt that same SE bias that the GFS supposedly has the result of upgrades that improved its performance on tropical cyclones? I think it was subject to TC proliferation lol and the upgrades fixed that but added a bit of a cold and SE bias.

[Guest someguy]

Strongly agree OSU. It's hard to also ignore the fact that the Euro is a severe outlier thru 6z and clearly over-phased.

what the hell are you talking about?