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06Z Models 12/22/10

winter_warlock

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Yup it just doesn't capture it in time.

I posted about the lack of amdar data due to all the flight cancellations in Europe lately. It would likely hit the euro the hardest based on what i could find last night but we still never formed a consensus on that. What we know is during a normal day about 45-50k flights were sending data to the Ec and that Sunday alone over half those flights were cancelled. IMO that has to have an impact and we will find out soon how much.

It may just be that with some of the data missing (us amdar data is likely missing too as flights aren't leaving here) it is our models being hit...ie in dynamic situations this is what was keeping us in the game or it could be that this was really a factor in the euros high scoring and without it, it has issues.

But I don't see the 6z nam rgem nogaps gfs as positive at all and viewed in context of the euro ens the op run looks like a model trying to compromise. It can't figure the final solution yet so we have a hybrid....with the final being an ejection of the coastal how close tbd.

Time will tell

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure its even possible for them to be SE of that, that storm is basically a copy of 12/23/89.

If this month ends like this, then the whole month would be a less extreme version of December 1989 lol. Avg temp that month was like 26 degrees (-10 deviation and colder than most Januarys) and only about an inch of snow here. On the plus side for 89-- we did have a decent November snowstorm, on the minus side, winter ended after New Years.

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jcwxguy

jcwxguy

Posted
Posted

The GFS is a disaster- way way suppressed. Still am very worried about this storm.....hope everyone's faith in the Euro is correct

check out the change over last 18-24hrs. Very Very inconsistant. No need for anyone to worry yet

e28d9e6c1150b542392feee46ede1d09.gif

-easy to tell how much it has slowed down

goes old 12z then 18z then 00z then 06z

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

The GFS would be a bit less of a concern if it was SOMEWHAT close, but its a solid miss for even Cape Cod and the Islands....that means its not likely we'll be seeing it become much of a hit anytime soon, but as had been mentioned already, this thing continues to be delayed...that was okay for awhile but the problem now is that if this gets TOO DELAYED, the ridge is going to get pushed into the Rockies/Western Plains by the GOA low and then its going to be game over for sure....this thing has to reach the NC coast by the evening of the 25th the latest.

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retusnmete8

retusnmete8

Posted
Posted

GFS starting to come to Euro. I think D7 or D8 it was like Euro and now, compared to what

it looked like yesterday has changed quite a bit back just not all the way yet. Euro still killin

the east/midatl. (yikes)! Agree, the more the GFS shows delay the more the Euro solution looks beter

allowing more time for amplification upstream to evolve. Euro has always had this a Sunday storm. Euro

solution woud shut down the east for a while..Esp Mid atl.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Amazing the difference in the GFS in 72 hours. Definitely trending towards the Euro. Not saying the Euro will be exactly right but if I were a betting man I would side with a solution that looks a lot more like the Euro with its consistency then the current GFS.

I will say the one thing about the GFS that worries me though is the Ridge in the west. Its been pretty consistent on keeping that father east which if it were to verify I think would disappoint a lot of people in the Mid Atlantic.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

GFS starting to come to Euro. I think D7 or D8 it was like Euro and now, compared to what

it looked like yesterday has changed quite a bit back just not all the way yet. Euro still killin

the east/midatl. (yikes)! Agree, the more the GFS shows delay the more the Euro solution looks beter

allowing more time for amplification upstream to evolve. Euro has always had this a Sunday storm. Euro

solution woud shut down the east for a while..Esp Mid atl.

The set up for the storm that the GFS was showing a while ago was completely different from what the EURO is showing now. If I remember correctly it actually had the low coming due east with an over running event and then a late phase off the coast.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

The set up for the storm that the GFS was showing a while ago was completely different from what the EURO is showing now. If I remember correctly it actually had the low coming due east with an over running event and then a late phase off the coast.

I think that set up with the GFS would have a hell of a better chance of verifying then the set up we have now. What the Euro shows now is a high risk, high reward event. Would be something to see if that verified.

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retusnmete8

retusnmete8

Posted
Posted

The set up for the storm that the GFS was showing a while ago was completely different from what the EURO is showing now. If I remember correctly it actually had the low coming due east with an over running event and then a late phase off the coast.

The basic pattern has not changed in weeks so to term it "completly" is argumentative. AT D7 it keyed on a

solution for an east coast sys to develop within the existing pattern. We have seen a ton of these

4 corner systems kick out, weaken and re-energize offshre and current GFS is doing it again.

Euro is amplifying the LW pattern thereby slowing and also allowing for much deeper sys to

devlope should it do so.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

Saw this posted by Kevin in the New England subforum and I thought I would repost it here. It's from Cisco, but I think it might be based off the 12z EURO, as the 0z EURO ENS MEAN was quite a bit SE of the OP

Still, its fun to read-- let's just hope it doesnt get relegated to trivia like the discussions leading up to March 2001 lol

WITH THE ECMWF LOCKING ONTO AN

EVOLUTION THAT TAKES THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

AND THEN SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GEM GLOBAL FOLLOWED

THE EUROPEAN CENTRE TRACK ON ITS 00Z/21 RUN...BUT HAS SWUNG THE

SYSTEM OUT WIDER OVER THE ATLANTIC THE LAST TWO RUNS. THE GFS HAS

SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN ROUTE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON ITS

CURRENT RUN...BUT LIKE THE GEM GLOBAL...DIRECTS THE CYCLONE WELL

SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE ECENS MEMBERS HAVE AVERAGED

CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WITH MANY MEMBERS FOLLOWING IT

EXACTLY...AND OTHERS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE

EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE HAS THE ADVANTAGE IN DEVELOPMENTAL

SYSTEMS WITH ITS HIGH RESOLUTION...AND IS FURTHER AIDED BY ITS

4D-VAR ANALYSIS IN GENERAL. ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE HIGHLY

RESOLVED THAN THE GEFS MEMBERS...AND WITH DYNAMIC...DEVELOPMENTAL

SYSTEMS...THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE SHOULD HAVE THE EDGE.

INDEED...THE GEFS MEAN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FLATTER WITH THE PATH

OF THE BIG STORM...WHICH IS CERTAINLY IN LINE WITH THE LOWER

RESOLUTION. EVEN SO...FOUR 00Z/22 GEFS MEMBERS STILL TRACKED

COMPARABLY TO THE ECMWF...SHOWING A DEEP NOREASTER AND A HIGH

IMPACT STORM FOR THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS ASTRIDE INTERSTATE

95 FROM WASHINGTON TO BOSTON. TO WIT...THESE GEFS MEMBERS ARE

GOING AGAINST THEIR LOWER RESOLUTION/LESS DEVELOPMENTAL NATURE.

THE ECMWF HAS MUCH CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE AS WELL...WITH ITS

TRACK WEST OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE BOMBING PHASE NEAR AND

NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.

THE MOST UNUSUAL...AND THREATENING...ASPECT OF THE ECMWF FORECAST

IS THE RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE AT WHICH THE STORM MATURES AND

STALLS/LOOPS. MORE TYPICALLY...SYSTEMS WILL CLOSE OFF AND HOVER

OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...AS WITH THE MOST RECENT

CYCLONE STILL AFFECTING DOWNEAST MAINE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE

UPCOMING CIRCULATION COMING TO A HALT JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA...WHICH PUTS THE VERY POPULATED AREAS OF THE EASTERN MID

ATLANTIC...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROLONGED

PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SNOW. THE

EXTRAORDINARY NEGATIVE NAO THIS MONTH COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUCH

AN ANOMALY. EVEN BEFORE THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE

SYSTEM...AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR GULF COAST

STATES TO GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS

MAY SEE A VERY RARE WHITE CHRISTMAS...AGAIN...CONSISTENT WITH THE

REMARKABLE DISRUPTION AT HIGH LATITUDES

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

The basic pattern has not changed in weeks so to term it "completly" is argumentative. AT D7 it keyed on a

solution for an east coast sys to develop within the existing pattern. We have seen a ton of these

4 corner systems kick out, weaken and re-energize offshre and current GFS is doing it again.

Euro is amplifying the LW pattern thereby slowing and also allowing for much deeper sys to

devlope should it do so.

Could have worded that better. Didn't mean to sound argumentative. :)

Was trying to state that the GFS had a different solution on how it developed the storm compared to the Euro. GFS basically had a Miller B showing whereas the Euro is showing a Miller A or a hybrid of it.

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

Saw this posted by Kevin in the New England subforum and I thought I would repost it here. It's from Cisco, but I think it might be based off the 12z EURO, as the 0z EURO ENS MEAN was quite a bit SE of the OP

Still, its fun to read-- let's just hope it doesnt get relegated to trivia like the discussions leading up to March 2001 lol

Cisco discussion

The early HPC prelim disco doesn't have the benefit of the Euro ensemble, but the one issued around 9am will (obviously). Cisco has a such an extreme bias toward the EC ops that it's hard to get much insight from his discussions, imo.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

The early HPC prelim disco doesn't have the benefit of the Euro ensemble, but the one issued around 9am will (obviously). Cisco has a such an extreme bias toward the EC ops that it's hard to get much insight from his discussions, imo.

Yes, that's what I was thinking too. I wonder what made him lean so heavily towards it? Was there some watershed storm that made him tilt so heavily towards the Euro, like Jan 1996 or March 2001? I'm sure his colleagues have tried to reason with him about this lol.

I think caution is certainly advised at this point, especially with the extreme variability of the modeling solutions-- and I hope the media doesnt get its hype machine revved up based on that discussion.

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Chagrin Falls

Chagrin Falls

Posted
Posted

The early HPC prelim disco doesn't have the benefit of the Euro ensemble, but the one issued around 9am will (obviously). Cisco has a such an extreme bias toward the EC ops that it's hard to get much insight from his discussions, imo.

I thought Cisco a week or so ago was talking about model consensus and the GFS-Ensembles? While I agree his forecast was based on the ECMWF in this case, you sure he has such a consistent bias?

In any event, I doubt this storm will verify per the 00Z ECMWF. I was just looking at the 06Z GFS upper Midwest ridge is very strong (too strong, I'm thinking) while the "polar vortex" (for lack of a better term) is more progressive than the 00Z ECMWF. Anyway, I'm wondering if (snow lovers will hate this) if the future ECMWF runs will begin to track more easterly?

While the ECMWF solution would be epic, I wouldn't be suprised if this thing ends up taking a more easterly (ocean) trajectory.

I'm not saying the 06Z GFS is correct, but...it might be on to something.

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