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Tropical Banter Thread

Rjay

By Rjay,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Windspeed

Windspeed

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Despite the beauty of the satellite presentation at landfall and pressure comparable to Andrew I'm not seeing damage comparable to Andrew in any way, shape, or form. I was in south Dade a month after Andrew and that hurricane destroyed entire shopping centers just as Katrina destroyed entire shopping centers on just about the entire length of the Mississippi gulf. Maria did not pack this kind of punch. I believe Andrew was a once in a thousand year storm and that Katrina s Mississippi surge was a once in a 500 year event.

LOL....So I wonder when this person got back from doing aerial and ground surveys? So nice of them to share with us here on the forum. And no idea if they are referring to Dominica or Puerto Rico? *sigh*

Dominica looks devestated. We haven't gotten enough aerial images/data out of PR yet to see how all of the PR SE communities faired. Homestead was a very small strip of extreme devestation they are comparing this too. Maria was a Cat 4 landfall in a large ERC, not a tight 6nm rapidly deepening vortex like Andrew. Perhaps that helped a coastal community avoid Category 5 wind damage, but spread major hurrricane force wind out over a much larger portion of the island. Yet there are still elevated communities in the southern and eastern PR that may have received comparable high winds we do not have aerial data from yet. It's been a little more than a day. And beyond that, Southern Dade didn't have to deal with insane torrents of water and mudflows.

People will be people and always have to compare to their own experiences with major landfalling events before we have all the information and facts collected. It always happens but its no less ridiculous.

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dan11295

dan11295

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Dominica was hit very hard, based on initial aerial analysis, even places on the NW corner of the island (farthest from initial landfall) suffered damage to 50-60% of structures. They couldn't do aerials in PR today most likely due to thunderstorms remaining over the island.

People shouldn't forget St. Croix either, true they missed the inner eyewall, but the west side of the island got pounded by cat 2-3 conditions for many hours from the outer eyewall. Given the core missed them, the EWRC was actually bad for that island. Between Irma and Maria, pretty much the entire USVI are in very rough shape.

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Paragon

Paragon

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

LOL....So I wonder when this person got back from doing aerial and ground surveys? So nice of them to share with us here on the forum. And no idea if they are referring to Dominica or Puerto Rico? *sigh*

Dominica looks devestated. We haven't gotten enough aerial images/data out of PR yet to see how all of the PR SE communities faired. Homestead was a very small strip of extreme devestation they are comparing this too. Maria was a Cat 4 landfall in a large ERC, not a tight 6nm rapidly deepening vortex like Andrew. Perhaps that helped a coastal community avoid Category 5 wind damage, but spread major hurrricane force wind out over a much larger portion of the island. Yet there are still elevated communities in the southern and eastern PR that may have received comparable high winds we do not have aerial data from yet. It's been a little more than a day. And beyond that, Southern Dade didn't have to deal with insane torrents of water and mudflows.

People will be people and always have to compare to their own experiences with major landfalling events before we have all the information and facts collected. It always happens but its no less ridiculous.

People rush to judgment far too soon.  I'm sure elevated areas in eastern PR saw Cat 5 damage, if coastal areas saw 140 mph winds, you wouldn't have to go that far up to get 160 mph winds.

I saw the images about Dominica too, it looks virtually uninhabitable!  On another note, why are so many in the media getting the pronunciation wrong?  Accent on the third syllable :P

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bobbutts

bobbutts

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Slightly OT (mods, move to a new thread if you feel necessary but please don't delete) but is this how Andrew was so badly underestimated? This blog suggests that the extreme winds being mixed down over land in small pockets of Andrew's eyewall may have been caused by unusual (for TCs) convective processes within the hurricane.

Obviously it couldn't be in 1992, but is there any way this sort of thing could be predicted (other factors such as oceanic TCHP, shear, max potential intensity, etc in the path toward landfall being favorable to maintain a high-end hurricane) with enough lead time to add extra urgency to forecasts and thus evacuation orders?

I think the best we can do now is warn when the potential is there.  The actual forecast will typically be lower than the most extreme scenarios though, which I think Andrew probably qualifies for.  We simply don't have the expertise to pinpoint RI which occurs just before landfall.   Irma for example was already well established and forecast to take a track right at Miami at one point with some models showing rapid intensification.  The dire warnings went out to FL, but luckily they were spared by a track that weakened Irma.  Regardless, if you have a 150mph system in the Bahamas being steered towards SE. FL you have to raise maximum alarms.

742px-HurricaneAndrew.jpg

andnewradar.jpeg

 

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Andrew hit the southern Berry Islands of the Bahamas with winds of 150 miles per hour (240 km/h).[8] As it crossed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Straits of Florida, the hurricane rapidly re-intensified as the eye decreased in size and its eyewall convection deepened.[1] At 0840 UTC on August 24, Andrew struck Elliott Key with winds of 165 miles per hour (266 km/h) and a pressure of 926 mbar. About 25 minutes after its first Florida landfall, Andrew hit just northeast of Homestead with a slightly lower pressure of 922 mbar.[8] A recording station at the National Hurricane Center recorded a peak gust of 163 miles per hour (262 km/h), and sustained winds peaked at 126 miles per hour (203 km/h) in Tamiami.[1]

 

 

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gymengineer

gymengineer

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38 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The only good example I can think of at the moment that compares is Hurricane Gilbert's wind swath across the entire Jamaican landmass. Maria may end up worse, but I dare say the overall building codes in Puerto Rico were better with respect to both landfalls, though obviously still a lot of substandard construction exists in places. Ironically, a lot of the poorer areas of construction standards are in areas nearto San Juan. A lot of the structures I am seeing in SE PR look like well-built middle-to-upper class homes. Still there are pockets of immense structural damage in the aeriel footage posted earlier. And we should not forget areas on the NW side of PR with respect to wind damage. I have yet to see any aerial footage there and they were in the southwest and southern quadrant for quite a while.

 

I should note this discussion with respect to a large population over a large area of a single landmass. Obviously, this is a different discussion entirely when incorporating the combined area/landmasses of the islands in the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands in regards to Irma's impacts. And the damage in Dominica by Maria looks as bad as the damage inflicted by Irma on Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Martin, etc.

I've noticed your avatar picture :). Gilbert is still my "favorite" hurricane. That satellite at its peak is unmatched...Such a beautiful looking storm.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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I thought that perhaps New York area readers might be interested in this news item (from Dominica News Online)

"Prime Minister Skerrit is scheduled to give an address at the UN headquarters in New York City tomorrow  Saturday, September 23rd  between the hours of 11:00 AM and 12:30 PM EDT.

At 7:00 PM that evening, he is slated to make a presentation to expatriates, friends  and patrons of Dominica at the Beulah Church of the Nazarene located  in the Crown Heights section of  Brooklyn.

Address:  1250 St. John’s Place, Brooklyn, NY 11213.

All Dominicans and otherwise concerned individuals are invited to attend."

 
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Windspeed

Windspeed

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I've noticed your avatar picture . Gilbert is still my "favorite" hurricane. That satellite at its peak is unmatched...Such a beautiful looking storm.

 

Yes, it is from the recon onboard radar during Gilbert at peak intensity before the ERC took over. And, yes, of course, Gilbert's satellite presentation in close timestamp to when the recon radar was scanned remains one of the most spectacular. Allen also had a spectacular satellite presentation in the W. Caribbean.

 

I think my favorite hurricane remains Hugo prior to landfall in South Carolina, however, simply due to the amazing upper atmospheric conditions, the mid-level 500mb steering features that surrounded it and its high latitude with regards to Category 4 intensity. If nothing else, it is proof that such intense hurricanes can strike the eastern seaboard north of Florida in the right atmospheric setup.

 

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