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Tropical Banter Thread


Rjay

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Just now, Roy said:

Everybody thinks they know better than the NHC in the main thread.

Just stop. The main thread is maddening right now, and folks on both sides are being idiotic, and wishcasting both ways.

 

Good points have been made both ways..and obviously the cards will fall as they will. Please though don't disregard the analysis of mets like LEK, stebo, and snowgoose off hand.

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I'd just like to say a big THANK YOU to the americanwx admins who have kept this site running smoothly despite the crush of members (and nonmembers) reading and refreshing (and rerefreshing) the boards during this HSECH (which is my abbreviation for historic southeast coast hurricane, and why sure you can feel free to use it :^)

 

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its ok to disagree. i think the nhc is def underestimating it. it wont be a monster cat 5, but cat 4; def good money on that. irma is clearly getting together although not without some struggles (anyone thinking otherwise is imo dumb and blind as hell) . either way irma is going to be a destructive storm and there is no way around this anymore

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21 minutes ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said:

its ok to disagree. i think the nhc is def underestimating it. it wont be a monster cat 5, but cat 4; def good money on that. irma is clearly getting together although not without some struggles (anyone thinking otherwise is imo dumb and blind as hell) . either way irma is going to be a destructive storm and there is no way around this anymore

People can disagree with NHC.  It's annoying one liners that don't add any value that are a problem.  Then people reply to that and round and round it goes.  

There have been a huge number of new signups in recent days, but some of the NHC bashers have been around for a while and should be able to present disagreements a little better.

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Dont feel like looking through 20 pages....Has there been any discussion on whether or not people believe Irma has been overhyped? 

I personally feel she has. Not that Irma hasn't been a destructive hurricane and won't cause severe damage in FL, but it isn't like Florida hasn't experienced hurricanes before. I think the fact that the country just dealt with Harvey and that Irma was a powerful Cat 5 for hours upon hours had many people in the media freaking out. 

I mean, let's face it, without the massive flooding in Harvey, it wouldn't have been such a catastrophic system. Yeah places that experienced the eye wall upon landfall had a lot of damage, but idk....

Thoughts? 

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A category 5 hurricane entering the Bahamas is overhyped? It takes days to evacuate S. Florida. The two major models had a S. Fl hit for many runs. What are government agencies supposed to do with such a circumstance other than present a worst possible scenario?

Anyway, after people see the surge disaster that's about to occur over the next 24 hours along the western peninsula coastline, the overhype talk will disappear.


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I like how the NWS says don't focus on the forecast track, but isn't that basically what they are doing with their storm surge map?  And thus by extension the media.  Late last night they were showing surge estimates based on the storm coming in just east of Naples, only this morning did they adjust those upwards for the more western track.  And then it wasn't until late tonight that Tampa finally called for evacuation of Zone B, and still the 12:20am surge statement is talking about Tampa seeing 4-6 feet surge, TWC showing 5-8 feet.  But if this keeps shifting westward where the eye doesn't come ashore south of St. Pete, doesn't that storm surge height potentially go way up?

Seems like it would be better in the future to make 2 surge maps and statements:  One based on the forecast, and one showing the worst case scenario if the storm doesn't follow the forecast. 

I'm not at all criticizing their forecasts, which I think have been excellent.  Shifts happen.  But it does seem that the risks for many areas of the west coast of FL have been not fully communicated until very late in the game.

Maybe I don't understand it completely, but couldn't Tampa see a greater than 6' storm surge if the storm shifts westward and stays offshore of St. Pete?

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Bahia Honda is one of the most incredible beaches I've been to.  Have you found a working webcam down there?  It is good news that the eyewall will likely miss Marathon.

Hey Mahk. Thought I'd move this over to banter just in case it gets removed by the mods. That beach is amazing and it sucks that it's about to take the brunt of Irma. No webcams anywhere down there, so will just have to live by pictures. Already reports of most of Rt 1 flooded over with the worst of the surge yet to come. Had vacation to Marathon planned starting this Wednesday. Had to change plans. I just hope they make it down there. 

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1 minute ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

I'm so confused.

Arent legit observations allowed in the storm mode thread now? 

there is an obs thread, so I assume obs there, main storm discussion in the storm thread. 

perhaps an actual green tagger can clear it up. 

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New here as you can see, signed up a few days ago to track this storm. Been through most of the biggest hurricanes the last 25 years and I always track and look for things that weaken a storm unlike most here that want to see it get bigger, with that said. Why was the Euro track thrown out as garbage in the other thread a few days ago? It's been almost spot on to me. Another thing I noticed as I watched the goes Rainbow and could see it weaken but others would say it's getting stronger which was absolutely wrong and then every wobble was a move north. 

Here's the track I'm talking about that was downplayed as nothing.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/cuba/2017090812-240-irma.html

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