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Tropical Banter Thread


Rjay

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1 hour ago, The_Doctor said:

forecasterjack really wants us to visit weather.us

Yeah, but tbh there's some good imagery on there. 

Cross-posting this simulated satellite image from the main thread. Has Irma impacting a swath from Jacksonville, FL to Santiago de Cuba.  Also, check out "Minicane" Jose behind Irma. Size pales in comparison but has a nice pinhole eye. Definitely plenty of eye-candy coming out from this.

IMG_3104.PNG

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I'm sorry if this is off topic, but with some of the weird runs pulling Irma into near Chicago eventually, what is the furthest west a landfaling Atlantic hurricane has ever pushed into the continental us? I remember times tropical systems have gone over my head in Pittsburgh, but never one getting into the Midwest.

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Moved from main thread--

Completely green on this forum so please forgive a question I have not seen yet. Granted, the path through SFL is not confirmed. But what would storm surge look like in the Keys? And what factors most strongly predict storm surge--pressure, wind direction, wind speed, timing of tides? 

 

Lived in middle Keys during Wilma, and the storm surge was the biggest factor for damage, over wind and rain. The island that Marathon is on was completely awash. Thank Dog it happened during daylight hours. 

 
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41 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I'm sorry if this is off topic, but with some of the weird runs pulling Irma into near Chicago eventually, what is the furthest west a landfaling Atlantic hurricane has ever pushed into the continental us? I remember times tropical systems have gone over my head in Pittsburgh, but never one getting into the Midwest.

Would take some research to find the farthest west, but it is pretty rare to see one move that far west.  Connie in 1955 made landfall on the east coast with the remnant center then tracking over Lake Huron.  The 1898 Georgia hurricane made it pretty far west before recurving.  All going to depend on what the pattern is like around/after landfall.  

track.gif.f027cd49bc3c2442cd1dc78b20cb31e9.gif

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My uncle and aunt are supposed to come up Thurs to Sunday to Buffalo. Doesn't look like that is going to happen now unfortunately. He has 2 properties, one in Fort Lauderdale and one in West Palm Beach. This will be his first hurricane. He's excited and nervous at the same time. He has nothing ready to prepare his 2 houses with. I told him he would be better off farther north, but the farther north house is closer to the coast. Should be an interesting week down there for them. 

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

OEMs, weather offices and the media in Florida need to step their game up and damp down the needless panic ongoing.  Seeing grocery stores emptied 5 days in advance of a potential hurricanes is utterly insane.  

Weren't you complaining about the Houston EMs doing (in your eyes) nothing or very little? I'd rather them be a little more bullish this time around. It's not like there are mandatory evacs out yet.

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OEMs, weather offices and the media in Florida need to step their game up and damp down the needless panic ongoing.  Seeing grocery stores emptied 5 days in advance of a potential hurricanes is utterly insane.  

Why would you not do this? Also, yesterday was Labor Day and traditionally a very busy day for grocery stores anyway. I'm thinking a lot of people were going anyway and just went ahead and stocked up.

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Family in Boynton Beach Florida , I am ver concerned and want them to come up North to NYC but they and many in their community are not concerned and are going to stay put,,,a little help guys and girls how bad will they get it ? Appears Irma will hit the East Coast of Florida hard according to the latest GFS,,,Euro this afternoon should be telling. You think it actually hits them as a CAT 5 and how do I get these people to get out of dodge ?

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17 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Family in Boynton Beach Florida , I am ver concerned and want them to come up North to NYC but they and many in their community are not concerned and are going to stay put,,,a little help guys and girls how bad will they get it ? Appears Irma will hit the East Coast of Florida hard according to the latest GFS,,,Euro this afternoon should be telling. You think it actually hits them as a CAT 5 and how do I get these people to get out of dodge ?

What's their location and elevation and home construction?  If they are prone to flooding or live in a wood house they should prepare to evacuate.  Assuming they stay it's going to be a scary time if they get into stronger winds, but typically people survive that.  Some of these model tracks have me concerned that it could be a very long time before services are restored in some areas.  Potential is there for massive destruction over a large area with dense population, so rescue/recovery would be badly overwhelmed.

Note that one way to avoid the congestion on the evacuation routes is to do it either early (now) or late night/early am.  Vast majority of people evacuate in the daylight just ahead of the storm.

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Newb question about how advisory stated intensity relates to SSHWS category. I've seen the attached map of Hugo's track thrown out in the Irma thread. It shows the upper bound of Category 3 as being 130 MPH, with Category 4 beginning at 131 MPH. However, Harvey was called a Category 4 upon reaching an advisory-reported intensity of 130 MPH.

Back in 2008, the highest operationally assessed intensity of Hurricane Ike leading up to its Texas landfall was 110 MPH, but it was still called a Category 2 and thus did not interrupt the eventual 12-year streak without a landfall-as-a-major in the US. Why was the 1 MPH difference rounded up a category in Harvey's case but not in Ike's?

Hugo.gif

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1 hour ago, Chargers09 said:

any information on the disturbance in the bay of campeche?

Will get little to no attention. I may start a thread on it soon, even if it's me talking with myself :P. It appears that it will be a big rain producer for areas around Tampico as it's forecasted to move very slowly for several days.

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For any new folks tracking for the first time here is the normal process.

On Tuesday, we will know more on Thursday

On Wednesday, we will know more on Friday

On Thursday, we will know more on Saturday

On Friday, we will know more on Sunday

On Saturday, it's nowcasting time!!!!!

On Sunday, well damn, we didn't expect that.

Next

 

BTW the above also goes to tracking possible snow threats in the SE.

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