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Tropical Banter Thread


Rjay

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  On 9/8/2017 at 3:28 PM, NJwx85 said:

Does it have a shot at becoming a major before landfall? I cannot recall there ever being three majors at one time in the Atlantic Basin.

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I think so. I think there's no precedent for three simultaneous majors. In 2010 it felt short by about 24 hours when Igor, Julia and Karl were out there

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Wow the main thread is terrible. I'm a degreed met and follow it for entertainment purposes but there is occasionally some good insight but these past 2 storms have been about unbearable.

Anyway, I have never really dove down deep into the insides of all the models, but does anyone know why the ECMWF is such a damn good a tropical? It's not like the Europeans get impacted all the time and thus there is no reason for them place a big emphasis on it when making their model. Is it just that much better all around than all the other models? I mean we have the HWRF or HMON designed just for tropical and they are much worse than the ECMWF.

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  On 9/8/2017 at 4:22 PM, thunderwolf said:

Wow the main thread is terrible. I'm a degreed met and follow it for entertainment purposes but there is occasionally some good insight but these past 2 storms have been about unbearable.

Anyway, I have never really dove down deep into the insides of all the models, but does anyone know why the ECMWF is such a damn good a tropical? It's not like the Europeans get impacted all the time and thus there is no reason for them place a big emphasis on it when making their model. Is it just that much better all around than all the other models? I mean we have the HWRF or HMON designed just for tropical and they are much worse than the ECMWF.

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lol

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  On 9/8/2017 at 4:35 PM, NicInNC said:

Can we post some links here of active webcams in the south Florida area? I can't get any to load here at work and don't know which ones are working and which ones aren't. They've got so much blocked on our computers. 

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Youtube is a pretty good place to find them.  You can filter by live.  There's a bunch of crap, but some real streams also.

https://www.youtube.com/results?sp=EgJAAVAU&q=miami

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  On 9/8/2017 at 4:22 PM, thunderwolf said:

Wow the main thread is terrible. I'm a degreed met and follow it for entertainment purposes but there is occasionally some good insight but these past 2 storms have been about unbearable.

Anyway, I have never really dove down deep into the insides of all the models, but does anyone know why the ECMWF is such a damn good a tropical? It's not like the Europeans get impacted all the time and thus there is no reason for them place a big emphasis on it when making their model. Is it just that much better all around than all the other models? I mean we have the HWRF or HMON designed just for tropical and they are much worse than the ECMWF.

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Where did you go to college?

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  On 9/8/2017 at 4:56 PM, Akeem the African Dream said:

Local authorities aren't giving us a hard time about staying.  If you are a resident they are allowing free passage between the mainland and barrier islands until this evening.

might leave to go have lunch at the strip club since everything here is done. 

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Riding this one out? Seems like the smart thing to do.

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  On 9/8/2017 at 5:53 PM, NicInNC said:

If you are referring to my me, I asked about South Florida because that's where MY family is. 

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Not you, just in general. Coverage in both the media and threads here have seemed So Flo centric. I get there there are a lot of people down there but there are other high population densities as well. Roughly 2/3s of the state population DOESNT live in So Flo and to see that ignored is a little irritating.

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  On 9/8/2017 at 5:59 PM, NJwx85 said:

Yes indeed, the 12z ECMWF does make landfall in Cuba, however at least that part of Cuba is flat, relatively speaking, and the Northern eyewall remains mostly over water. 

And then Irma is back over water by hr 36, so the trip over land is under 12 hours.

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And 50% of the people reading the main thread now think that this is how you weaken a hurricane.

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