Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nothing has been PROMISED...what is it with you?  

 

Do you just make up stuff to make yourself feel better?  Or do you say these nonsensical things to just get the educated ones here to chime in and say something to make you feel better??  

 

I mean who "Promised" anything?  It's weather...there isn't any promises;  or can you provide a post where somebody promised you something??   

You’ve got to find other hobbies man 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ve got to find other hobbies man 

No...it's clear you DO.  Anytime somebody says that Weather has been promised...they are the ones holding on way too tight.  

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

I think they are referring to the fact of AGW. Our winters have been getting milder. 

The small time scale nuances like ENSO, PDO etc have a much greater effect than AGW. AGW is a low frequency background deal. The Dec-Feb temp has gone up on avg about 0.4F/decade since 1950. Not exactly the same as the anecdotal recollections of old weenies.

[LurkerBoy]

I don’t think it will be as warm as currently being worried over, and I think we’re in for a fun December.

[CoastalWx]

Here is an example. from 2000-2017 MA temps between Dec-Feb have gone up an avg of 1.3F/decade. You might say whoa right? Well, if I choose MN, their temp went down on avg 0.8F/decade during the same time. So that tells me things like ENSO or other oceanic and atmospheric cycles have a larger influence over the near term temp trends. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Winters were colder 100 years ago but big storms more rare. Ask Weathafella, hes lived through all of them. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The small time scale nuances like ENSO, PDO etc have a much greater effect than AGW. AGW is a low frequency background deal. The Dec-Feb temp has gone up on avg about 0.4F/decade since 1950. Not exactly the same as the anecdotal recollections of old weenies.

My point completely.  

 

And another thing to consider, is that it's possible they are taking these temp readings in more urban areas..verses more rural areas decades ago...which would skew them warmer obviously.  

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

My point completely.  

 

And another thing to consider, is that it's possible they are taking these temp readings in more urban areas..verses more rural areas decades ago...which would skew them warmer obviously.  

Nah, they do their best to account for all that...and do a fairly good job. The trend is there regardless....what I am saying is that we have cycles that flat out dominate any background AGW signal in the nearterm.

[weathafella]

55 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Winters were colder 100 years ago but big storms more rare. Ask Weathafella, hes lived through all of them. 

Yup-1920s winters just didn’t cut it snow wise.  I couldn’t make any $$ shoveling back then.

[leo2000]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah, they do their best to account for all that...and do a fairly good job. The trend is there regardless....what I am saying is that we have cycles that flat out dominate any background AGW signal in the nearterm.

What winter was that in your profile picture?. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

What winter was that in your profile picture?. 

That was from the Jan 2005 blizzard. I think that's Beacon St or somewhere in the backbay of Boston.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weathafella said:

Yup-1920s winters just didn’t cut it snow wise.  I couldn’t make any $$ shoveling back then.

I can’t imagine earning a nickle for an hour of shovels. But it was enough to buy a ticket to a sox game.

[CT Rain]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

First off, to completely write off anything prior to 12/10 at your locale is nuts. Nothing will show up on the models 10 days out like a classic KU will....not in this flow as Will alluded to several days ago. 

Second, I can think of many winters that had little to no snow through 12/10. Maybe a couple of sloppy inches that melted a day later? You guys a freaking out over the dumbest  stuff. 

The clock is ticking....

Disappointing turn of events. 

[#NoPoles]

I've heard a few local meteorologists say they think we have a front loaded winter. Is it common for Ninas to mean early spring for the Northeast?

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

The clock is ticking....

Disappointing turn of events. 

Well we lost November..:(

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I've heard a few local meteorologists say they think we have a front loaded winter. Is it common for Ninas to mean early spring for the Northeast?

They typically have been front loaded with SE ridging flexing and early Springs. However, the Nina may be weakening as we head into Spring, so not sure this will go that direction. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

If this happened, my guess is there would be quite the cold in Canada, oozing into the US. 

 

 

I bet that would be pretty cold in Ontario and Quebec. Prob more than the 850 temps currently show. Not epic like over in Eastern Asia but def below normal. We gotta get to verification obviously but if those heights out west and over Greenland verify, we take them down in New England/lakes and adjacent Canada. Take them down. (The temps that is) 

[Ginx snewx]

Kevin is fuking nutz if he thinks we have more early Dec snows than not. I do love how the Twitter Mets regionally tweet everyday based on that days model runs. Huggers gonna hug. It's blatantly obvious which mets think beyond the computer output of the day. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I bet that would be pretty cold in Ontario and Quebec. Prob more than the 850 temps currently show. Not epic like over in Eastern Asia but def below normal. We gotta get to verification obviously but if those heights out west and over Greenland verify, we take them down in New England/lakes and adjacent Canada. Take them down. (The temps that is) 

You and Scooter have that ability lacking in many to analyse based on your knowledge of patterns based on experience.  Others look at pretty colors

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kevin is fuking nutz if he thinks we have more early Dec snows than not. I do love how the Twitter Mets regionally tweet everyday based on that days model runs. Huggers gonna hug. It's blatantly obvious which mets think beyond the computer output of the day. 

There is a lot at stake this December. Traders want it cold and they are getting shook with daily changes. I bet this is fueling this hype from some of the twitter mets...many of them energy ones.

[CoastalWx]

Also re that earlier tweet from Judah about trying to understand why it's not cold with that look....it's an ensemble mean. Sometimes the 500 look and the srfc response aren't always in sync with each other. It's quite possible that spatial and temporal differences in srfc features are cancelling out the warm and cold departures. Anyways, sometimes it is best to look at H5 and then gather what the srfc may look like.  The ensemble mean can be noisy and perhaps drown out the departures. This works for patterns on the warm side too. I can't tell you how many times I see a big ridge over the SE with just some slight + anomalies. You know something like that in the summer will be a furnace at the surface. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is a lot at stake this December. Traders want it cold and they are getting shook with daily changes. I bet this is fueling this hype from some of the twitter mets...many of them energy ones.

All this hype about a front end loaded winter based on Nina to me is as Ray says overgeneralizing. I see and feel we are in the stages of a typical climo start and stop period before patterns become established.  Things to love,  deep snow cover in Eastern Canada, perturbations to the Vortex. Episodes of Neggie PNA NAO AO

Things not to love, fast flow, SE Ridge. We will see how it shakes out 

[Typhoon Tip]

Global warming

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

All this hype about a front end loaded winter based on Nina to me is as Ray says overgeneralizing. I see and feel we are in the stages of a typical climo start and stop period before patterns become established.  Things to love,  deep snow cover in Eastern Canada, perturbations to the Vortex. Episodes of Neggie PNA NAO AO

Things not to love, fast flow, SE Ridge. We will see how it shakes out 

But the same folks here...never seem to learn anything...and forever flip flop with every run. Like you said, twitter Mets tweeting based on model runs of that particular day.  And the same ones buying it hook line and sinker.

 

Will and Scott and a few others here(including you), break it down perfectly, and see through and around the daily fluctuations of modeling, and the rest of the model hugging wannabes & Mets out there.  

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

My first accumulating snowfall in the front loaded winter of 2008-09 was 2.5" on Dec.17. Dec 2007 had 4.5"  before Dec 13.

Man, people are more neurotic every season.

[pasnownut]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But the same folks here...never seem to learn anything...and forever flip flop with every run. Like you said, twitter Mets tweeting based on model runs of that particular day.  And the same ones buying it hook line and sinker.

 

Will and Scott and a few others here(including you), break it down perfectly, and see through and around the daily fluctuations of modeling, and the rest of the model hugging wannabes & Mets out there.  

 

 

Cant agree more.  Southern PA guy that lurks here because of what Wof just stated....

and I'd even include Fella into the mix.  He's old and deserving of respect because of how many years he's put up w/ some of this crap. :).

Keep up the good work gang.

Nut

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My first accumulating snowfall in the front loaded winter of 2008-09 was 2.5" on Dec.17. Dec 2007 had 4.5"  before Dec 13.

Man, people are more neurotic every season.

Can't make it up Ray. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

All this hype about a front end loaded winter based on Nina to me is as Ray says overgeneralizing. I see and feel we are in the stages of a typical climo start and stop period before patterns become established.  Things to love,  deep snow cover in Eastern Canada, perturbations to the Vortex. Episodes of Neggie PNA NAO AO

Things not to love, fast flow, SE Ridge. We will see how it shakes out 

You need to keep in mind that "front loaded" is a term relative to the distribution of snowfall throughout a given season...it doesn't have to mean a record snowy December.

Some of us, such as myself, touched upon the fact that the east based la nina composite actually featured a mild December, while also elaborating on why I didn't feel as though this December would be mild.

NOT an overgeneralization.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know that you are aware of all of that, Steve...just clarifying.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kevin is fuking nutz if he thinks we have more early Dec snows than not. I do love how the Twitter Mets regionally tweet everyday based on that days model runs. Huggers gonna hug. It's blatantly obvious which mets think beyond the computer output of the day. 

We absolutely do. Go back and look