USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 While I think it is too early for a triple phase bomb to occur given that the arctic jet is far into northern Canada, but the upper level pattern across North America is delayed reaction from the -AO oscillation, as it rebounds towards a positive reading, the upper level low over northern Canada will try to swing southeastward into the southern Canada areas, of Ontario and Quebec, Canada. This should allow a cold air mass to be in place for the sunday/Monday coastal low potential. The chances are slim we will see a snow event, but the chances exist none the less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: So with the warm up trending more legit next week...we'll put a dent in those - departures. Definitely looks like a dent coming up. I'm not sure where the rest of New England is temperature wise, but I still feel confident up here we'll hold below normal for the month, possibly still -2. All that matters to me is keeping November negative. There's definitely at least a weak correlation there with negative departures and the upcoming winter. It will feel very warm though just because of how cold it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: At least right now, I agree. It will put the weenies on edge though. As is tradition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 We’re back to Cape Cod,MA. Winter is nigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Long, extended period of meh. Sucks. Hopefully 2nd week of Dec . delivers as has been promised on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 You figure we lose the first 7-10 days or so of Dec. That means middle and end of month is going to need to crank for all these harsh front loaded winter ideas to get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You figure we lose the first 7-10 days or so of Dec. That means middle and end of month is going to need to crank for all these harsh front loaded winter ideas to get going And then by the end of Dec, we only have two months of winter left. Maybe you should of stuck to your ratter call, afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Long, extended period of meh. Sucks. Hopefully 2nd week of Dec . delivers as has been promised on here. You worry too much. by this time next week models will start locking in on colder and stormy pattern in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 hours ago, weathafella said: The signal for much above for a day or 3 is strong. Go kart Mozart ftmfw? I am not sure what ftmfw means...but as of yesterday we are -1.2 at BDR. We are in jeopardy of an AN November here. Boston is -1.8, Worcester -2.0, so it may be close for you guys too. Then again, the maps can change quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I am not sure what ftmfw means...but as of yesterday we are -1.2 at BDR. We are in jeopardy of an AN November here. Boston is -1.8, Worcester -2.0, so it may be close for you guys too. Then again, the maps can change quickly... Would +0.5 qualify as AN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Not worried a bit. We expected this. It’s more being pissed off losing that first week of Dec. We are still 3 weeks minimum of a snowfall. That just pisses me off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Would +0.5 qualify as AN? +.0000000001 is AN in my book. Does it have to be more than one sigma to be officially AN? I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: +.0000000001 is AN in my book. Does it have to be more than one sigma to be officially AN? I don't know. So we now skip normal and just use BN and AN...living in an extreme world. Must be this or that side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 39 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I am not sure what ftmfw means...but as of yesterday we are -1.2 at BDR. We are in jeopardy of an AN November here. Boston is -1.8, Worcester -2.0, so it may be close for you guys too. Then again, the maps can change quickly... Ftmfw=for the muthufukking win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: +.0000000001 is AN in my book. Does it have to be more than one sigma to be officially AN? I don't know. The November signal to rest of winter is not statistically significant when temps are within a few tenths of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not worried a bit. We expected this. It’s more being pissed off losing that first week of Dec. We are still 3 weeks minimum of a snowfall. That just pisses me off I don't see why we cant get a snow event before December 12th which is 3 weeks from now. Certainly possible we don't get one but the pattern as of now doesn't look overly hostile by about Dec 4-5ish...we've got that huge poleward ridge near Yukon/AK by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Maybe we should just keep quiet for a couple of weeks regarding the pattern. Sure we have some fun, but I get the sense that people have some unnecessary angst. Do me a favor, every time you feel stressed or pissed at every orange color over your locale, look at the calendar and relax with an IPA or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we should just keep quiet for a couple of weeks regarding the pattern. Sure we have some fun, but I get the sense that people have some unnecessary angst. Do me a favor, every time you feel stressed or pissed at every orange color over your locale, look at the calendar and relax with an IPA or something. Same thing every year I feel like. Even the front loaded winters typically didn't get started until after the 10th. I think the pattern looks pretty solid once we get past the first few days of Dec. Even if it's delayed a few more days after that, we're still around or shy of 12/10. Yeah it would be nice to get white T-day every year or blizzards on Dec 5th like 2003, but more typically, the front-loaders start to get going 12/10-12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Been watching models and following along here when things started looking interesting for this week/weekend. Last night I watched the WBZ winter outlook and they mentioned it as the most difficult they've had to produce because of the disparity amongst a number of indicators. The front-ended winter would be nice for a change but it seems hard to put your eggs in any one basket this year. That said, as the resident weather geek at my office, I have a pool going to guess the white Christmas chances, and I'm in for at least 6 inches on the ground at some point Christmas Day. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, rimetree said: Been watching models and following along here when things started looking interesting for this week/weekend. Last night I watched the WBZ winter outlook and they mentioned it as the most difficult they've had to produce because of the disparity amongst a number of indicators. The front-ended winter would be nice for a change but it seems hard to put your eggs in any one basket this year. That said, as the resident weather geek at my office, I have a pool going to guess the white Christmas chances, and I'm in for at least 6 inches on the ground at some point Christmas Day. But we'll see. Seems like it could definitely go either way at this point... maybe even more so than other years. Im selling hard on a white Christmas though. It’ll be 65 and muggy I’m sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Same thing every year I feel like. Even the front loaded winters typically didn't get started until after the 10th. I think the pattern looks pretty solid once we get past the first few days of Dec. Even if it's delayed a few more days after that, we're still around or shy of 12/10. Yeah it would be nice to get white T-day every year or blizzards on Dec 5th like 2003, but more typically, the front-loaders start to get going 12/10-12/25. If this happened, my guess is there would be quite the cold in Canada, oozing into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Man,.. what a discordant hodgepodge of random wave spacings ...toting random air mass... It's figuratively as though NCEP parameterized the model to specifically and quite deliberately NOT organize storm systems... But the model doesn't know what else to do with all the wave mechanics so it's wildly yawing all over the place. kind of amazing really - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we should just keep quiet for a couple of weeks regarding the pattern. Sure we have some fun, but I get the sense that people have some unnecessary angst. Do me a favor, every time you feel stressed or pissed at every orange color over your locale, look at the calendar and relax with an IPA or something. See this is wrong and one of the pet peeves of the board. This look at the date stuff. It will be minimim Dec 5th most likely and possibly after that. You can’t say oh well we still have 2 months of winter left. There’s precious time during the course of the year where we can winter. This attitude.. oh well I don’t expect snow until late Dec is ridiculous. Hoping we can make it up or change to snowy in Feb and Morch when it melts faster than it falls. God is that attitude wrong . A 5-6 week winter sucks. You want it to start early . We live in New England a snowy climate. Not central Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: See this is wrong and one of the pet peeves of the board. This look at the date stuff. It will be after Dec 5th most likely and possibly after that. You can’t say oh well we still have 2 months of winter left. There’s precious time during the course of the year where we can winter. This attitude.. oh well I don’t expect snow until late Dec is ridiculous. Hoping we can make it up or change to snowy in Feb and Morch when it melts faster than it falls. God is that attitude wrong . A 5-6 week winter sucks. You want it to start early . We live in New England a snowy climate. Not central Missouri You want it to, but Mother Nature does not care what any of us wants. Climo is not too favorable really in early December. Normal highs are in the 40s. That's not exactly deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Long, extended period of meh. Sucks. Hopefully 2nd week of Dec . delivers as has been promised on here. Nothing has been PROMISED...what is it with you? Do you just make up stuff to make yourself feel better? Or do you say these nonsensical things to just get the educated ones here to chime in and say something to make you feel better?? I mean who "Promised" anything? It's weather...there isn't any promises; or can you provide a post where somebody promised you something?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You want it to, but Mother Nature does not care what any of us wants. Climo is not too favorable really in early December. Normal highs are in the 40s. That's not exactly deep winter. Would you say there are more years or less you are that we had snow in th first 10 days of Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 I hear that people from back then used to say that winters were a lot longer and a lot more snow. There was no such thing as rain in the winter back then lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Would you say there are more years or less you are that we had snow in th first 10 days of Dec First off, to completely write off anything prior to 12/10 at your locale is nuts. Nothing will show up on the models 10 days out like a classic KU will....not in this flow as Will alluded to several days ago. Second, I can think of many winters that had little to no snow through 12/10. Maybe a couple of sloppy inches that melted a day later? You guys a freaking out over the dumbest stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Just now, leo2000 said: I hear that people from back then used to say that winters were a lot longer and a lot more snow. There was no such thing as rain in the winter back then lol. That's a crock of crap too Leo. Most non weather People can't remember what happened last November or December ...let alone 50-75 years ago. I had a guy say to me today, "didn't we already have a snowstorm this time last year?" That says it all right there. People remember wrong most times, and associate a snowy period with winters being longer, snowier, and worse than they are now. Total BS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That's a crock of crap too Leo. Most non weather People can't remember what happened last November or December ...let alone 50-75 years ago. I had a guy say to me today, "didn't we already have a snowstorm this time last year?" That says it all right there. People remember wrong most times, and associate a snowy period with winters being longer, snowier, and worse than they are now. Total BS!! I think they are referring to the fact of AGW. Our winters have been getting milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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