RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Anything outside of EMA, USA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Anything outside of EMA, USA? Just another warm up early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 So with the warm up trending more legit next week...we'll put a dent in those - departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: So with the warm up trending more legit next week...we'll put a dent in those - departures. That’s a freaking torch . Long one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So with the warm up trending more legit next week...we'll put a dent in those - departures. Still think we can finish the month below normal with post-Thanksgiving trough coming up before finishing November with few days in 50s for coastal areas of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 That’s 2 days of 60’s for most of the interior next week . That will hurt departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 A week from now....I wouldn't worry about it too much. By the time it gets here it could be muted or not much of a big deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 That's not two days in 60's. especially for interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: That's not two days in 60's. especially for interior. The signal for much above for a day or 3 is strong. Go kart Mozart ftmfw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: That's not two days in 60's. especially for interior. From a week out that’s a furnace and has been trending warmer. Look at today. 55-60. That’s a Warmer set up than today. That’s easily 60+ away from Coast influences Tues and Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 It won't erase the negatives. There's a pretty good cold shot for Sunday and Monday. Its not even clear that Wednesday is a torch either...some guidance (including the euro) has a cool down behind Tuesday's torch before it warms again on Thursday. The goal is to avoid a torch November. We've already succeeded. Even if you get all three days between Tuesday and Thursday at plus 10, you arent going to produce a big plus month. You might get back to near neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: From a week out that’s a furnace and has been trending warmer. Look at today. 55-60. That’s a Warmer set up than today. That’s easily 60+ away from Coast influences Tues and Wed Which models support it? I wouldn't worry too much. If it happens though it'd definitely mute the cold departures of the past couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It won't erase the negatives. There's a pretty good cold shot for Sunday and Monday. Its not even clear that Wednesday is a torch either...some guidance (including the euro) has a cool down behind Tuesday's torch before it warms again on Thursday. The goal is to avoid a torch November. We've already succeeded. Even if you get all three days between Tuesday and Thursday at plus 10, you arent going to produce a big plus month. You might get back to near neutral. That is what we need...if we have a normal November, even after the warm start to Autumn, we could be in good shape. ORH is at -2.0F for the month. Will probably end up within 0.5F or normal with those temps next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Which models support it? I wouldn't worry too much. If it happens though it'd definitely mute the cold departures of the past couple weeks. Gotta look yourself boy. Need to learn and stop asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That is what we need...if we have a normal November, even after the warm start to Autumn, we could be in good shape. ORH is at -2.0F for the month. Will probably end up within 0.5F or normal with those temps next week Yep... I actually misspoke earlier...the cooldown is on Thursday on the Euro...though GFS has it on Wednesday. In order to get back to positive territory, we need about a cumulative +40-45 over the next 10 days. That's gonna be tough. Today will be like +5...tomorrow is maybe a +3? Then we go a couple minus days in a row basically cancelling out the plusses. Maybe a +5 or 6 on Saturday before we get blown back to solid negatives on Sunday/Monday. That leaves us 3 days basically to get +45 or so (maybe even more if Monday manages a -10 or something)....in the words of Scooter, "not happening James". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Again, it'll change by the time those days get here....not worried at all. I'll take a couple days near 60...feels nice. Like Will said....we've already succeeded in not having a Torch November...Job is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gotta look yourself boy. Need to learn and stop asking I look at the models. But I want Met interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Well back to more Nina on the ensembles...no surprise there. SE ridge flexes so we ride the line heading through first week of December. Congrats on the Cosmos in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 You also have a decent Greenland ridge that will fight the flex of the SE ridge. Definitely gonna help to have latitude though. But either way...that's not a bad look. I'll take ridging out on NW Canada any day. It will definitely help to go deeper into December with that look, but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 1 hour ago, WxBlue said: Still think we can finish the month below normal with post-Thanksgiving trough coming up before finishing November with few days in 50s for coastal areas of SNE. At least right now, I agree. It will put the weenies on edge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well back to more Nina on the ensembles...no surprise there. SE ridge flexes so we ride the line heading through first week of December. Congrats on the Cosmos in NYC. Ill take that. I don’t want it to be cold if it isn’t going to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Just give me this in early Dec again. I'm guessing I was sitting in the tub with the toaster out in GC during that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 GFS and EURO have a coastal storm for Sunday 12z at around 986mb east of Cape Cod, MA, right now not ideal position for snow, but could become something better with a southern stream and northern stream partial phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Actually with the NAM and GFS, there appears a three phase set of disturbances in the flow over the central/eastern US. A arctic upper low dives towards Ontario, Canada, followed by a northern stream (polar stream) shortwave energy moving through the Great Lakes and a southern stream (sub tropical jet) energy moving out of the Gulf of Mexico west of Florida. Could be something big if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You also have a decent Greenland ridge that will fight the flex of the SE ridge. Definitely gonna help to have latitude though. But either way...that's not a bad look. I'll take ridging out on NW Canada any day. It will definitely help to go deeper into December with that look, but I'll take it. Nape weather in DC? I’m down there next week through 12/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 I am enjoying the vacation I am on in South Carolina, I should be back in MA on Saturday night/Sunday morning, in time for the 27th snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Triple phaser idea gets a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You also have a decent Greenland ridge that will fight the flex of the SE ridge. Definitely gonna help to have latitude though. But either way...that's not a bad look. I'll take ridging out on NW Canada any day. It will definitely help to go deeper into December with that look, but I'll take it. Yeah that's a good reload of airmass into Canada I think. We can work with that. People need to remember too that snowstorms pre-12/5 are still pretty hard to get. The timing for this is looking solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Luckily the women's world cup at Killington is this weekend not next because next week does not look great for snowmaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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