Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[J Paul Gordon]

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The ocean was quite cold all summer up here, Not to many trips in the water without major shrinkage.

Yeah, water at Ogunquit-Wells in early July was definitely shrinky dink cold.

[Lava Rock]

Hard to take anything serious at 7 days, CBS and NBC going all in up here this winter well above avg snow, Below avg cold, Early start, Early end, Mod la Nina and comparing similar to 70/71.

I like the sound of that

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[OceanStWx]

7 hours ago, weathafella said:

I think that’s wrong.  Boston light at 50 seems normal for 11/20.

That's bang on the mean for 2001-2016 and about 2 degrees cooler than last year (which were actually some of the highest November water temps in the observation period). You know if you wanted to look at the raw data instead of some map on twitter.

[Damage In Tolland]

This is what I saw 

 

[CoastalWx]

Oh Big Ben. 

[CoastalWx]

Just goes to show you how much bad stuff is out there.

[CoastalWx]

The only thing I will say is that it's possible early movie was warmer and that was 11-16, but given this month and how it looks through next week...we take em down. Besides, last year did pretty darn well on the s shore, so the SSTs can be overrated given a sufficient airmass. 

[weathafella]

Pattern seems cold stab, warm push, cold stab.  Maybe some more sustained cold in the 11-15 especially at the very end?

[weathafella]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is what I saw 

 

He probably didn’t match the dates in the year.

[WeatherFeen2000]

45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is what I saw 

 

That’s wrong coastal lows explode because of the warmer waters. If you get a decent size low by benchmark and you have a decently cold airmass you will get snow not sure what this newbie is speaking of!

[Damage In Tolland]

I hate warm stabs. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

That's bang on the mean for 2001-2016 and about 2 degrees cooler than last year (which were actually some of the highest November water temps in the observation period). You know if you wanted to look at the raw data instead of some map on twitter.

I posted it already

[LurkerBoy]

Looking pretty seasonal all da way through. 

I'll take it. 

Feels like forever since we had a normal end to Nov and beginning to December. Even the warm stabs don't seem as torchy as they could be!

 

[CoastalWx]

I've been saying this for awhile, but I would wait until into the second week of December realistically. We still are in this up and down period before maaayyybe the long wave pattern gets more established and stable. We can always get an event to sneak in...but I really would wait this out for a little longer. At least in SNE. 

[Typhoon Tip]

That's the apt description - transitory.  ...36 our or so periodicity before going back the other way ... putting the Centers for Disease Control on higher alert.

I call this particular pattern type an 'over-under pattern'.  It's when high pressure regions move in then settle south, and over the course of that trajectory, you start out with a biting cold insert/NNE flow, and end up with a SW "un"pleasant mild air source as said high ends up over DCA or something. 

If the flow structure over our part of the hemisphere is steeper, with higher heights out west and semi-permanent coherent troughing here in the east ... you get such rapid succession of re-inforcing cold air masses, the region is always cold; and the high pressure regions in that sort of regime ends up sitting over Oklahoma ... each successive new high pressure come down and and immediately merges with it, leaving us in a perpetual NW pipe freezer.

Then you get the other kind, where split flow with confluence episodically setting up in S-SE Canada seems to always have a llv high pressure situated N and we have the snow grain winter.

Then there is the dreaded SE ridge domination deal. In that paradigm ... if you are a winter enthusiasts, you find other hobbies until further notice.

If one so chose to do so, they could go and drub up model solutions from two or even three weeks ago ... and though the timing and exactness of each individual detail may or may not have have been handled well enough, that particular characterization for over-under started getting modeled back whence and has verified exceptionally well, and continues to model that way.

Hard to knock consistency ...

I can go back over years and patterns both suffered and celebrated that fit each in/of the four characterizations above.  In 1995/1996, that year featured a tendency to oscillate between the 2nd and 3rd, but mainly the 2nd... 

Ranging to the autumn and the first half of 2006-2007, which was the southeaster ridge.

Usually, a winter pattern will be somewhere in between, taking on some percentage of these at any given time, while still being majority identifiable in one. Thankfully, we are not in winter. Because of those four above?  The over-under is probably in 2nd place for over-all egregious violalation of winter enthusiast butts.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's the apt description - transitory.  ...36 our or so periodicity before going back the other way ... putting the Centers for Disease Control on higher alert.

I call this particular pattern type an 'over-under pattern'.  It's when high pressure regions move in then settle south, and over the course of that trajectory, you start out with a biting cold insert/NNE flow, and end up with a SW "un"pleasant mild air source as said high ends up over DCA or something. 

If the flow structure over our part of the hemisphere is steeper, with higher heights out west and semi-permanent coherent troughing here in the east ... you get such rapid succession of re-inforcing cold air masses, the region is always cold; and the high pressure regions in that sort of regime ends up sitting over Oklahoma ... each successive new high pressure come down and and immediately merges with it, leaving us in a perpetual NW pipe freezer.

Then you get the other kind, where split flow with confluence episodically setting up in S-SE Canada seems to always have a llv high pressure situated N and we have the snow grain winter.

Then there is the dreaded SE ridge domination deal. In that paradigm ... if you are a winter enthusiasts, you find other hobbies until further notice.

If one so chose to do so, they could go and drub up model solutions from two or even three weeks ago ... and though the timing and exactness of each individual detail may or may not have have been handled well enough, that particular characterization for over-under started getting modeled back whence and has verified exceptionally well, and continues to model that way.

Hard to knock consistency ...

I can go back over years and patterns both suffered and celebrated that fit each in/of the four characterizations above.  In 1995/1996, that year featured a tendency to oscillate between the 2nd and 3rd, but mainly the 2nd... 

Ranging to the autumn and the first half of 2006-2007, which was the southeaster ridge.

Usually, a winter pattern will be somewhere in between, taking on some percentage of these at any given time, while still being majority identifiable in one. Thankfully, we are not in winter. Because of those four above?  This one is probably in 2nd place for egregious violalation of winter enthusiast butts.

We’ve noticed a disturbing pattern of you posting ideas about butt violations

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve noticed a disturbing pattern of you posting ideas about butt violations

Just trying write to the audience - or did you learn that in High School.   Oh wait -

[Typhoon Tip]

actually, muse aside ..

fwiw the 06z GFS hinted at a couple of miller-b scenarios ... unfortunately, you had to get out to D8 for the first in succession, but they were there nonetheless.

[WintersComing]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

actually, muse aside ..

fwiw the 06z GFS hinted at a couple of miller-b scenarios ... unfortunately, you had to get out to D8 for the first in succession, but they were there nonetheless.

That Nov 30th-Dec 1st time period looks a bit interesting

 

[SnowHole413]

Looks like the trustworthy CFS is finally coming around

[LurkerBoy]

5 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

Looks like the trustworthy CFS is finally coming around

Lol, that means we’ll probably torch now.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

Looks like the trustworthy CFS is finally coming around

That model just plain sucks....They should throw that thing in the dumpster.

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The only thing I will say is that it's possible early movie was warmer and that was 11-16, but given this month and how it looks through next week...we take em down. Besides, last year did pretty darn well on the s shore, so the SSTs can be overrated given a sufficient airmass. 

I'll bet the first half of November 2007 had torched SSTs too...didn't really stop E MA from getting destroyed in December that year. All about the synoptics. If anything, I don't mind some bath water...prob helps with some secondary cyclogenesis and if you have a good high to the north, it only intensifies the ageostrophic northerly flow.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll bet the first half of November 2007 had torched SSTs too...didn't really stop E MA from getting destroyed in December that year. All about the synoptics. If anything, I don't mind some bath water...prob helps with some secondary cyclogenesis and if you have a good high to the north, it only intensifies the ageostrophic northerly flow.

Funny you said that. Someone I know did a thesis about what happens when you simulate an increase of 1C for SSTs off the coast. If anything it really didn't affect snow much..actually intensified ageostrophic flow and the CF.  There's always a vector pointing from cold to warm, so makes sense.

[Typhoon Tip]

Word!

Warm water against cold BL near-by that is locked in by higher pressure N ... imposing an easterly flow into the upright wall of said BL cold slab of air ...

that's not a bad thing if you're irresponsible minded dystopian storm luster - which I am...  muah hahahaha.

Seriously, we've talked about this in the past, ...but for new users, that is why December really can be dynamically spectacular, as vestigial oceanic warmth over the western Atlantic most certainly does butt- up against early season arctic intrusions that nose their termination (usually) along the I-95 corridor from Maine on downward.. It really is a unique combination of geography and atmospheric parameters converging to 'enhance' the static potential for coastal tempests.  But even smaller lows, like that gig back in Dec 2005, that ripped the tropopause and sent dingies flyin' out to sea, while 16" of snow fell in 20 minutes over Middlesex CO ...that's a crazy good example of how pithy oceanic heat content was slammed consequentially up against a very steep thickness gradient.  When that strong v-max encroached over top - wow. 

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Word!

Warm water against cold BL near-by that is locked in by higher pressure N ... imposing an easterly flow into the upright wall of said BL cold slab of air ...

that's not a bad thing if you're irresponsible minded dystopian storm luster - which I am...  muah hahahaha.

Seriously, we've talked about this in the past, ...but for new users, that is why December really can be dynamically spectacular, as vestigial oceanic warmth over the western Atlantic most certainly does butt- up against early season arctic intrusions that nose their termination (usually) along the I-95 corridor from Maine on downward.. It really is a unique combination of geography and atmospheric parameters converging to 'enhance' the static potential for coastal tempests.  But even smaller lows, like that gig back in Dec 2005, that ripped the tropopause and sent dingies flyin' out to sea, while 16" of snow fell in 20 minutes over Middlesex CO ...that's a crazy good example of how pithy oceanic heat content was slammed consequentially up against a very steep thickness gradient.  When that strong v-max encroached over top - wow. 

 

Yeah I often use 12/9/05 as an example of what can happen when you have a 50(!!) vortmax hit bath water just south of Long Island...We didn't even have a great high location for that one, hence the ptype issues for the coast inside of 128 in the first half of that event....but man, it didn't matter for them one iota once that sucker produced a mushroom cloud south of Block Island.

 

The little clipper that went boom in December 1997 is probably another less explosive example...but still produced some amazing ground truth on snowfall rates. So yeah, even seemingly innocuous shortwaves can be fun ...especially early in the season with that enhanced baroclinicity.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That’s pretty much Otto’s first law of thermodynamics. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't thing the SST concept really has a great deal of utility beyond the typical progression of climo. I mean, obviously the coast has trouble early in the season, and ssts are not the only reason why. The jet is usually father north.

But if anything, I agree that positive sst anomalies serve to enhance cyclogen parameters, for one, and they are also quite malleable, as well.

The bottom line is that the hemispheric regime is the main modulator of snowfall, and the ssts offer nuances.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't thing the SST concept really has a great deal of utility beyond the typical progression of climo. I mean, obviously the coast has trouble early in the season, and ssts are not the only reason why. The jet is usually father north.

But if anything, I agree that positive sst anomalies serve to enhance cyclogen parameters, for one, and they are also quite malleable, as well.

The bottom line is that the hemispheric regime is the main modulator of snowfall, and the ssts offer nuances.

12/5/03 agrees.  As do 12/9/05, 12/11-12/60.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just give me this in early Dec again.

Quote

A major winter storm brought heavy snow and strong winds to southern New England, dumping 1 to 3 feet of snow over a large area as it tracked slowly off the coast. In Massachusetts, snowfall amounts averaged

1 to 2 feet across most of the state, with as little as 6 to 12 inches near Cape Cod and the Islands, where most of the snow fell early in the storm before an eventual change to rain. Pockets of 28 to 35 inch amounts fell near Interstate 95 in Boston's southwest suburbs, as well as to the north of Boston from Everett to Peabody. The highest snowfall total reported was 36 inches in Peabody.

Seas as high as 30 feet just off the eastern Massachusetts coast combined with an astronomically high tide to produce minor coastal flooding from Cape Ann through Scituate and Hull to Provincetown.

A peak wind gust of 58 mph was reported at Provincetown during the height of the storm.

There was one death indirectly attributed to the storm. A commuter-rail worker was struck by a freight train as he was clearing snow from the tracks near the Wellesley Hills station.

Official snowfall totals from the storm included 25.9 inches at the National Weather Service Office in Taunton, 24.3 inches at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, 16.9 inches at Logan International Airport in Boston, and 14.2 inches at Worcester Airport.

Other snowfall totals, as reported by trained spotters, included 32 inches in Beverly; 30 inches in Topsfield; 29 inches in Everett; 27 inches in Swampscott; 25 inches in Malden and Wakefield; 24 inches in Brockton, East Mansfield, Foxborough, Needham, Randolph, and North Andover; 23 inches in Beverly, Manchester, Reading, East Cambridge, Westwood, and Norwood; 21 inches in Ashfield, Easton, Dover, Dedham, Walpole, and Jamaica Plain; 18 inches in Monson, West Brookfield, Stoneham, Bridgewater, and Seekonk; 14 inches in Leverett, Montgomery, Springfield, Warren, Fitchburg, Littleton, Billerica, Framingham, Gloucester, and Somerset; 12 inches in Whately, Ware, Worthington, Longmeadow, Southwick, Granville, Leicester, Spencer, Southbridge, Tewksbury, Lincoln, and Duxbury; 11 inches in West Falmouth; 8 inches in Eastham; 7 inches on Nantucket; and 6 inches in West Tisbury.