#NoPoles Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Contributing author to Dawn Awakening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 19 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Contributing author to Dawn Awakening? Oooohh that is a wonderful idea. The Dawn Awakening: Rise of the Teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 29 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Contributing author to Dawn Awakening? Lmao...I was thinking the Same thing when I read Tips Post....James and Tip co authors....Now there's a best seller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Wave 1 convergence now detected on GEFS and ECM products as expected. This will set the stage for -NAM redevelopment later in the first week of December. This is the most interested I have been in December's patterm since 2013. I think colder than normal outcome is likely for C/E. First snowfall for the coast is more difficult due prognosticate due to its stochastic nature, but I particularly like mid to late December for the potential for something significant or major along I 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Wave 1 convergence now detected on GEFS and ECM products as expected. This will set the stage for -NAM redevelopment later in the first week of December. This is the most interested I have been in December's patterm since 2013. I think colder than normal outcome is likely for C/E. First snowfall for the coast is more difficult due prognosticate due to its stochastic nature, but I particularly like mid to late December for the potential for something significant or major along I 95. I like the holiday period, as well. One of the two intervals I outlined in the outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 hours ago, weathafella said: A better answer is no changes and no credible threats within 5 days. The best answer is November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 45 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Contributing author to Dawn Awakening? The Dawn Awakening: Rise of the Word Count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like the holiday period, as well. One of the two intervals I outlined in the outlook. I think we can say with fairly high confidence that the probability of a warmer than normal December is low. We will finally evade the plus 5 December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like the holiday period, as well. One of the two intervals I outlined in the outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Damn-I have to get a job like Tip’s-time to really write! Ha haa... oh man. sorry Jerry. I didn't take a lot of vacation time - check that, ... no vacation time and my company does a use-it-or-lose-it type policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 I like the first week of Dec myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 i like the holidays, too ...because otherwise, i would not like the holidays without any symbolic snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Just now, Isotherm said: I think we can say with fairly high confidence that the probability of a warmer than normal December is low. We will finally evade the plus 5 December. Yea, I know there was some data that leaned warm in east-based Decembers, but perhaps that was largely attributable to stronger cold ENSO events within dataset, and/or +QBO seasons... May have also been simply a sample size issue, but I didn't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 24 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Wave 1 convergence now detected on GEFS and ECM products as expected. This will set the stage for -NAM redevelopment later in the first week of December. This is the most interested I have been in December's patterm since 2013. I think colder than normal outcome is likely for C/E. First snowfall for the coast is more difficult due prognosticate due to its stochastic nature, but I particularly like mid to late December for the potential for something significant or major along I 95. Do you have something to illustrate this? I also noticed the 50mb vortex is a lot more disturbed than modeled even 6 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Just speaking to the operational GFS only ... it just seems we are sea-sawing between slightly more favorable looks, and then back to less, run to run. This iteration inclines to hope for the consensus druthers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Next Supermoon December 2017 The next Supermoon will be on December 3, 2017. The Supermoon on November 14, 2016, was the closest since January 26, 1948. The next time a Full Moon will come even closer to Earth is on November 25, 2034 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Do you have something to illustrate this? I also noticed the 50mb vortex is a lot more disturbed than modeled even 6 days ago. You mean as far as the w1 increase? On the Berlin website, you can click through the geopotential heights for the wave-1 component, which show significant increases by D5-10 at the 10mb level. There's also the NASA website to analyze wave components; I don't have the link accessible right now, I will later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Isotherm said: You mean as far as the w1 increase? On the Berlin website, you can click through the geopotential heights for the wave-1 component, which show significant increases by D5-10 at the 10mb level. There's also the NASA website to analyze wave components; I don't have the link accessible right now, I will later. http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just speaking to the operational GFS only ... it just seems we are sea-sawing between slightly more favorable looks, and then back to less, run to run. This iteration inclines to hope for the consensus druthers. Do you purposefully make your posts overly verbose and hard to understand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Do you purposefully make your posts overly verbose and hard to understand? LOL....they can be tough to decipher at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 29 minutes ago, Isotherm said: You mean as far as the w1 increase? On the Berlin website, you can click through the geopotential heights for the wave-1 component, which show significant increases by D5-10 at the 10mb level. There's also the NASA website to analyze wave components; I don't have the link accessible right now, I will later. I meant more from a plan view purpose. Like showing what it looks like in terms of ridging/troughing etc. I think I know, but was curious what you had or think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Do you purposefully make your posts overly verbose and hard to understand? Marge: Homer, has the weight loss tape reduced your appetite?Homer: Ah, lamentably no! My gastronomic rapacity knows no satiety. Marge: I don’t know if that tape is working. You ate three desserts tonight.Homer: Forbearance is the watchword. That triumvirate of Twinkies merely overwhelmed my resolve.Marge: Another thing I’ve been wanting to talk to you about… Homer: Now there’s a Machiavellian countenance. Oo! A sextet of ale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I meant more from a plan view purpose. Like showing what it looks like in terms of ridging/troughing etc. I think I know, but was curious what you had or think. I think my posts above show that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I think my posts above show that I always thought it was more GOAK deal (I guess that is wave 2), but I assume what Isotherm means is the Greenland/Icelandic ridge there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 19 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Cold day though. 30’s and wind all day . Cold for runners that aren’t used to running. They will be fine. The thing is half goof-off drink and party fest anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 17 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said: I chose the quieter and easier venue. Running the O'Briley 5k Turkey Trot in Collinsville. lol. Yeah. This one is kind of a madhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The Dawn Awakening: Rise of the Word Count LOL--well done. 34.0/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 No one wants to talk about that nice SE ridge in the extended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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