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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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Wave 1 convergence now detected on GEFS and ECM products as expected. This will set the stage for -NAM redevelopment later in the first week of December. This is the most interested I have been in December's patterm since 2013. I think colder than normal outcome is likely for C/E. First snowfall for the coast is more difficult due prognosticate due to its stochastic nature, but I particularly like mid to late December for the potential for something significant or major along I 95.

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4 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Wave 1 convergence now detected on GEFS and ECM products as expected. This will set the stage for -NAM redevelopment later in the first week of December. This is the most interested I have been in December's patterm since 2013. I think colder than normal outcome is likely for C/E. First snowfall for the coast is more difficult due prognosticate due to its stochastic nature, but I particularly like mid to late December for the potential for something significant or major along I 95.

I like the holiday period, as well.

One of the two intervals I outlined in the outlook.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like the holiday period, as well.

One of the two intervals I outlined in the outlook.

 

I think we can say with fairly high confidence that the probability of a warmer than normal December is low. We will finally evade the plus 5 December.

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Just now, Isotherm said:

 

I think we can say with fairly high confidence that the probability of a warmer than normal December is low. We will finally evade the plus 5 December.

Yea, I know there was some data that leaned warm in east-based Decembers, but perhaps that was largely attributable to stronger cold ENSO events within dataset, and/or +QBO seasons...

May have also been simply a sample size issue, but I didn't buy it.

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24 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Wave 1 convergence now detected on GEFS and ECM products as expected. This will set the stage for -NAM redevelopment later in the first week of December. This is the most interested I have been in December's patterm since 2013. I think colder than normal outcome is likely for C/E. First snowfall for the coast is more difficult due prognosticate due to its stochastic nature, but I particularly like mid to late December for the potential for something significant or major along I 95.

Do you have something to illustrate this? I also noticed the 50mb vortex is a lot more disturbed than modeled even 6 days ago. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Do you have something to illustrate this? I also noticed the 50mb vortex is a lot more disturbed than modeled even 6 days ago. 

You mean as far as the w1 increase? On the Berlin website, you can click through the geopotential heights for the wave-1 component, which show significant increases by D5-10 at the 10mb level. There's also the NASA website to analyze wave components; I don't have the link accessible right now, I will later.

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1 minute ago, Isotherm said:

You mean as far as the w1 increase? On the Berlin website, you can click through the geopotential heights for the wave-1 component, which show significant increases by D5-10 at the 10mb level. There's also the NASA website to analyze wave components; I don't have the link accessible right now, I will later.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just speaking to the operational GFS only ... it just seems we are sea-sawing between slightly more favorable looks, and then back to less, run to run. This iteration inclines to hope for the consensus druthers. 

Do you purposefully make your posts overly verbose and hard to understand?

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29 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

You mean as far as the w1 increase? On the Berlin website, you can click through the geopotential heights for the wave-1 component, which show significant increases by D5-10 at the 10mb level. There's also the NASA website to analyze wave components; I don't have the link accessible right now, I will later.

I meant more from a plan view purpose. Like showing what it looks like in terms of ridging/troughing etc. I think I know, but was curious what you had or think. 

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12 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Do you purposefully make your posts overly verbose and hard to understand?

Marge: Homer, has the weight loss tape reduced your appetite?
Homer: Ah, lamentably no! My gastronomic rapacity knows no satiety.

Marge: I don’t know if that tape is working. You ate three desserts tonight.
Homer: Forbearance is the watchword. That triumvirate of Twinkies merely overwhelmed my resolve.
Marge: Another thing I’ve been wanting to talk to you about…

Homer: Now there’s a Machiavellian countenance. Oo! A sextet of ale.

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