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Fall 2017 Model Mehham

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

 

From WPC - maybe our first widespread wintry event at least for the interior? There will be blocking in the Davis Straight, no?

  

Zonal flow aloft continues Thu into Fri...with a quick moving
s/wv likely to enhance upslope snow showers in that time frame.
Heading into the weekend there remains a strong signal for a
deep Ern CONUS trof and low pressure in the vicinity. There
remains a good deal of uncertainty regarding evolution...but
certainly looks like the best chance in the next 7 days of
widespread precip across the region.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh you mean that triple point this weekend that didn’t triple?

Yes, the storm that was always meant to be wet here and for those who remain wedged in VT/NH/and ME, AWT. Enjoy another one. In fact, with all this hype and talk about blocking and blah blah blah..chances are many of us only see flakes after all this talk. LOL.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I didn’t realize that triple point only meant far NNE. My bad

It means being wedged which is what happened even in nrn MA. It's still 40 in KASH. Enjoy the dews and moths. There was never a chance for frozen here. NNE had a better shot, but they had some snow and ice way up in the mtns before the rain. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

We need the NAO block to trend stronger to make next weekend interesting. It's trended weaker and further north the past couple of days. We want the block to try and back into almost Hudson Bay but it really just ends up in northern Greenland so it isn't able to prevent that system next weekend from being a St Lawrence valley runner. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

In the 11-15 day, the -NAO goes away to an extent, but still kind of Nino like with ridging into NW Canada, and troughing in the SW US. The troughing in the SW US does lead to some SE ridging so the storm track will be close by or overhead.  This is when we could use the power of Judah and get a -NAO because that would help keep the storm track south. I still think being realistic and hope for something maybe into the second week of December is probably a good take. Anything prior is gravy. 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We need the NAO block to trend stronger to make next weekend interesting. It's trended weaker and further north the past couple of days. We want the block to try and back into almost Hudson Bay but it really just ends up in northern Greenland so it isn't able to prevent that system next weekend from being a St Lawrence valley runner. 

Well sometimes these things do trend back and sometimes blocks stay a little longer than projected, so I guess we have a shot.  Or maybe just far interior NNE, which would be fine to get the season started outside the mountains/upslope.  It is nice to see a little blocking though this early in the season, even if transient.  Is this the phase change storm Steve was talking about?  I assume so.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

As can so often by the case... the NAO is clearly in the process of Judas -

That sucker is no where near the appeal in the guidance compared to the visions set forth days ago, that were hardened and seemingly so true do to the consistency, and most importantly of all (perhaps) being that it was cross-guidance - hell, even the EPS was in on it (though I admit to not seeing any actual index calculations based off the Euro cluster).

In any case... the present tenor wrt to the NAO is way more transient, and actually ... questionable weather it will transpire as significant enough to back drill a synoptic flow orientation/influence much at all. 

Part of the problem with the NAO ... aside from the fact that it is November, and there is probably more than less a difference in what that index's modes mean prior to Thankgs giggedy compared to New Year's, is that it is overrated. It is way, way unjustly too reliant in forecaster thinking based upon poignantly well written research papers (that are ultimately wrong..) spun out in the 1990s. Now all the provincial enthusiasts and charlatans of the science are like chatty-Kathy dolls, yammering out the exact same mantra.

Ha, ... not to incite a backlash of resent, but, some of that is certainly droll - don't get your panties in a twist.  The only reason why I presently dare violate the sanctity of the NAO is aside from that fact that if you are a winter enthusiast, it just succeeded in stealing a week of your life in waste... is because the part that is wrong, is that the -NAO in of its self does not mean schit. It doesn't.  

-NAO's with about thirteen different qualification requirements mean everything.

And there is a difference.  The "generic form of the EPO," for example, doesn't seem to parlay into the same parody of contentious model runs, and conditional bs that makes or breaks an entire scope. When the EPO falls from say ...+2 to -2 SD, the correlation on temperature anomalies and even the spatial distribution therein across the mid latitudes of North America is stunningly dependable compared to the NAO.  Another ...the PNA... Not so much for predicting temperature distributions, but, the vastness of that domain's cubic amount of atmosphere is so gargantuan, large objects tend to move slower by Newtonian physics, so a larger or smaller SD tends to be more dependable for that proxy...

But the NAO... ?  Oh my god. I mean, just out of frustration alone: it really is like that index thinks it's funny -

This thing is figuratively out to get you, too.. The operational runs (for example) are succeeding in moving a transient ridge through the D. Straight region, but keeping he wave lengths overall just small enough that the full potential of what a -2 SD could mean for the Lakes-OV-NE regions is pallid in the complexion of the models at best. Something could still evolve out of all that (more) but as is, about all we got out there now is the appeal of maybe a three days stint of pond freezer chill.  

Which, in a sort of climatological sense is probably not all that bad. Personally, I was in the mood this autumn for a front-loaded winter... You know, holiday spirit prior to x-mass, and in fact, that rare coveted white Thanks Giving.  The models have been rubbing it in ... We are seeing a trend evolve where they are outputting vestiges of that succeeding, only to insidiously fail to do so.

Well, in any case... just one commiseration, Sunday morning arm-chair QB's perspective on the tempo of the first quarter this year's modeling head game.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well sometimes these things do trend back and sometimes blocks stay a little longer than projected, so I guess we have a shot.  Or maybe just far interior NNE, which would be fine to get the season started outside the mountains/upslope.  It is nice to see a little blocking though this early in the season, even if transient.  Is this the phase change storm Steve was talking about?  I assume so.

Yeah it was the storm that occurs when the NAO tries to go from neg to pos. I made a post a couple days ago outlining how if the NAO trended stronger, then we could have a legit shot at a winter event. I drew some lines to show how the confluence in Quebec would be greater and you would force any storm further south. 

Since that post was made, the NAO has trended less favorable so now we are seeing a lot of solutions where the storm is a straight st Lawrence runner. The NAO block needed to be West and it has trended more to northern Greenland. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Regardless of the wax and wane of the -NAO...it has been and will be trending more +.  So thats, that. What should be more concerning, is how the Pacific is looking. A we head into December, climo starts getting more and more on our side rather quickly. You can even see it on the op runs from time to time. Successive storms keep bring the cold east and deeper from time to time. If we do have that Nino look split flow...the interior at least will probably score something in the next 15 days or so. But, with the NAO not necessarily helping, and troughing in the SW..the storm track won't always be favorable.  Originally I thought two things. the NAO will trend + and we go back to a more -EPO or dateline ridge Nina look in December. The NAO may slowly go weakly + or at least neutral, but the Nino look is sort of interesting. I based my thoughts at the time, with what looked to be tropical forcing back in the maritime continent. While there still is a low frequency there, the signal really has weakened and it seems like we may be at the mercy of more wave breaking or temporary tropospheric forcing from bombing lows...etc. We'll see how long it lasts...but part of me still thinks we revert back to more Nina maybe after mid month?

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LurkerBoy

LurkerBoy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Regardless of the wax and wane of the -NAO...it has been and will be trending more +.  So thats, that. What should be more concerning, is how the Pacific is looking. A we head into December, climo starts getting more and more on our side rather quickly. You can even see it on the op runs from time to time. Successive storms keep bring the cold east and deeper from time to time. If we do have that Nino look split flow...the interior at least will probably score something in the next 15 days or so. But, with the NAO not necessarily helping, and troughing in the SW..the storm track won't always be favorable.  Originally I thought two things. the NAO will trend + and we go back to a more -EPO or dateline ridge Nina look in December. The NAO may slowly go weakly + or at least neutral, but the Nino look is sort of interesting. I based my thoughts at the time, with what looked to be tropical forcing back in the maritime continent. While there still is a low frequency there, the signal really has weakened and it seems like we may be at the mercy of more wave breaking or temporary tropospheric forcing from bombing lows...etc. We'll see how long it lasts...but part of me still thinks we revert back to more Nina maybe after mid month?

Feeling.....panic.....must.....ask how the LR looks...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing has changed and you are deeply disturbed if you somehow are getting panic from what I said. Good Lord.

 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You also live in NYC. I would always panic in winter.

If anything, a more El Niño look would be better for NYC. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I don't think the advent of a negative NAO is in question ...or should be (duh) so much as the 'quality' of it during that interlude spanning roughly next weekend - that's really the hidden silver bullet....keeping in mind, nothing's verified yet.

Not that anyone asked, but the commiseration romp above does (for me) have that bit of usefulness, to point out that the NAO usage is more problematic than the other indices for anticipating how it's numerical values may parlay in a pattern drive. 

I submit, most miss that or are unaware, or don't consider that enough and are too reliant on whether progs are positive and negative - per se.  Again, the EPO and PNA, they "seem" to be more correlate-able.

I mean...it's probably not a huge intellectual leap here; hell, we've defined it as west and east based in our local vernacular so obviously, people are at least aware/can be.  But the NAO for next weekend is morphed in the runs to be west based, while much to the chagrin of the 11:45 am machine gun mouse clicker, still not doing what we typically envision west-based versions doing.

which adds a question: maybe it's all model based delusions anyway, and maybe we'll see it all morph into something better as this week shortens.

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