STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Kevin is at 1000' i really dont think 40 miles North east at similiar elevation equals over 8 inches automatically. (Perhaps it does ) there are some southern scrapers where he does better, thou certainly more where he may trail(S.W.F.E) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Kevin is at 1000' i really dont think 40 miles North east at similiar elevation equals over 8 inches automatically. (Perhaps it does ) there are some southern scrapers where he does better, thou certainly more where he may trail(S.W.F.E) Oh easily. I think of a few events where ORH got over 6" and Kevin a coating. The latitude and longitude as Will said can make up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 OK, 5 pages of DITs location and snowfall analysis should about do it. / Late next week onward keeps poking at me. Figure once we get the block setup, we should get a better picture whether or not any of the rotated lobes can dig deep enough to pop a redeveloper. Interior still favored esp NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 All the winter folks but a few are back posting. When wxniss chimes in we know we’re tracking something legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh easily. I think of a few events where ORH got over 6" and Kevin a coating. The latitude and longitude as Will said can make up for that. Those are extreme examples. I would also Say that there is probably a Better chance the worcester Coop Could Be Under a couple Inches and Kev Is 64" and they are 70-71. I do not believe the co-op measures as consistently or are as dedicated as Posters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Those are extreme examples. I would also Say that there is probably a Better chance the worcester Coop Could Be Under a couple Inches and Kev Is 64" and they are 70-71. I do not believe the co-op measures as consistently or are as dedicated as Posters here. Well Will is the measurer. I think he has done a fair job. He also helped BOX reconstruct snowfall during the 96-02 (give or take) timeframe when ASOS implementation screwed it up. They aren't extreme examples. There are several storms a winter where ORH will do 2-3" or more better than Tolland. That's not offsetted by the south of the pike scrapers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: OK, 5 pages of DITs location and snowfall analysis should about do it. / Late next week onward keeps poking at me. Figure once we get the block setup, we should get a better picture whether or not any of the rotated lobes can dig deep enough to pop a redeveloper. Interior still favored esp NH/ME. Can’t take the heat.. git out the kitchen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 26 minutes ago, weathafella said: All the winter folks but a few are back posting. When wxniss chimes in we know we’re tracking something legit. JC in CT, in case we didnt know the state he lived in, is the unofficial Dr No in CT. Once he starts posting the individual ens members and pointing out the rogue one as the “storm can still wiff”.....then winter has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can’t take the heat.. git out the kitchen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 52 minutes ago, weathafella said: All the winter folks but a few are back posting. When wxniss chimes in we know we’re tracking something legit. Zeus coming back is the real tell tale sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 hour ago, mreaves said: Zeus coming back is the real tell tale sign. He is the original! And his participation suggests higher likelihood of good snow in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Those are extreme examples. I would also Say that there is probably a Better chance the worcester Coop Could Be Under a couple Inches and Kev Is 64" and they are 70-71. I do not believe the co-op measures as consistently or are as dedicated as Posters here. I haven't seen good evidence to support the 6-7" difference. Doesn't mean its impossible but I have looked at this stuff over and over again for like 15 years. During my time forecasting for Union CT, I averaged about 9" more than them. Granted, only 11 years of data and over a longer time span that difference might shrink some but you get the idea...it wasn't during a snow drought for CT either...and Union at 1100 feet 15 miles northeast of kevin no doubt averages more than him. And I agree it's possible the averages are all bumped up...I mean, unless disaster strikes in the next 3 years, ORH is going to be at like 73" or 74" for the 1991-2020 normals. But usually when I talk about averages, I mean long term and not the 30 year average. Even over 30 years you can insert some decent noise. Measuring isn't perfect so you only can go with the data you have. Especially if comparing someone else's measurements. They are supposed to be homogenous but they probably aren't. In the end, parsing 6 or 7" versus 9" or 10" is going to be difficult to prove on a 100% empirical basis, but given my personal knowledge of interior MA and northeast CT, I feel pretty comfortable sticking to my numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 BTW...weeklies and end of the EPS run says we go back to El Niño. Lol. Big western ridge and Aleutian low. Actually a decent pattern. We will see as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BTW...weeklies and end of the EPS run says we go back to El Niño. Lol. Big western ridge and Aleutian low. Actually a decent pattern. We will see as we get closer. Polar opposite of what Leo said he heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BTW...weeklies and end of the EPS run says we go back to El Niño. Lol. Big western ridge and Aleutian low. Actually a decent pattern. We will see as we get closer. And some said weeklies were worth worrying about. Stay the course, should have a good start to winter unlike the past several. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And some said weeklies were worth worrying about. Stay the course, should have a good start to winter unlike the past several. 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Polar opposite of what Leo said he heard. I must have missed that. But yeah, the weeklies actually look pretty good. Not the pattern I'd expect in La Niña though. We will see if it holds but it has ensemble support in the 13-15 day range. Obviously we know that could change that far out. Def a big positive PNA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 It’s good to see that it’s only November 17th and things look a lot better at this point than they did the past 2 years. Seeing at least some sort of blocking show up already in November is a telling sign that it will occur frequently this winter I think. Thats why I don’t get why some people are getting all nerved up because we’re not even into it yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 People freak out over oranges in Canada and nrn US. That's not bad when that happens. It usually means some sort of Aleutian or GOAK low with a more +PNA. Sure maybe Canada is not an ice box, but climo begins to get cold regardless in December. AN in Canada still means cold and possibly snowy. In addition, as modeled... it's not even a blowtorch pattern for Canada. Just AN. That's ok for us...especially the interior. With the models showing lower heights over the SE US, that may indicate storminess and srn stream action. It's an interesting pattern and I share the same thought as Will. Did not expect that whatsoever. Of course we are not at verification time, but I think it's valid to a point. I also notice the MJO forcing has trended weaker. If there is any CCKW or what have you out there...that can circle the globe and maybe that is helping with the look. Or, it's forced from wave breaking and just one of those things that happen from a big bombing low...etc. Certainly a head scratcher...but Mother Nature is humbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 It would be even a better season if some wouldn't cancel/uncancel winter every 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: It would be even a better season if some wouldn't cancel/uncancel winter every 6 hrs. IF ITS ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVER 12hrs WINTER IS DOOMED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 hour ago, dryslot said: It would be even a better season if some wouldn't cancel/uncancel winter every 6 hrs. So True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Would not take much to make the 12z GFS a lot more interesting for Black Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Would not take much to make the 12z GFS a lot more interesting for Black Friday. Yup. Been honking, eventually people will turn to see what for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 53 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: IF ITS ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVER 12hrs WINTER IS DOOMED Aren’t you one of them who obsesses with each cycle that spikes slightly warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Aren’t you one of them who obsesses with each cycle that spikes slightly warmer? Yes. I’m making fun of myself cuz I contain multitudes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Would not take much to make the 12z GFS a lot more interesting for Black Friday. White Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: White Friday? Shoppers squashed in line from the weight of 18" of paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Cold gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Gonna need a lot more than a Gfs run to turn the holiday weekend cold and wintry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna need a lot more than a Gfs run to turn the holiday weekend cold and wintry Tellies ? Eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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