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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Last decade upped those averages.  Based on what I see Tolland averages more than Foster. I'd say 6 to 8 more. Tolland gets those 2 to 3 inch marginal storms 3 or 4 times a year while we rain here

I think the 6-8 estimate is way too high. Even Union, CT where I had a decade of forecasting experiencing there and a more favorable spot than Tolland was maybe 4-5" more than N Foster. The problem is you have to play the game both ways...Tolland and Union might get storms where they get a 3" paste job and N Foster gets a coating but then there's a storm where N Foster gets 6" and they get 3-4...either a late blooming clipper/redeveloper or an inverted trough...or a scraper where east does better.

 

I'll actually get my Union totals during that decade and compare them...I have them somewhere on my comp.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Providence is still pretty low relative to a lot of NE...but yeah, I'd say the city is probably closer to 40 than the airport's 36 and the northern side and northwest side of city are prob another inch or two higher.

Similar to Boston.  Logan certainly undersells.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the 6-8 estimate is way too high. Even Union, CT where I had a decade of forecasting experiencing there and a more favorable spot than Tolland was maybe 4-5" more than N Foster. The problem is you have to play the game both ways...Tolland and Union might get storms where they get a 3" paste job and N Foster gets a coating but then there's a storm where N Foster gets 6" and they get 3-4...either a late blooming clipper/redeveloper or an inverted trough...or a scraper where east does better.

 

I'll actually get my Union totals during that decade and compare them...I have them somewhere on my comp.

I just go by experience from the last 17 years living up here. So many microclimates. I think up in East Killingly they get more than Foster. Love the micro stuff around here. Places like Foxwoods get less than Ledyard which is south of them. Wether it's east wind shadowing, low level warmth, the valleys around ECT are holes but drive around a corner up a hill and it's different. Sterling CT with spots over 750 just a half mile to my East easily average 6 to 10 more than me. Member here KBC360 plowed for the state for years and he knows exactly what I am talking about. Every hill can be different too. I have no doubt that Kev at a tiny bit under 1K gets a least a half foot more than Foster. Marine air kills us here especially in SWFEs

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...Taunton doesn't average 30. Even ACK averaged 29" back when they were a first order FAA site. 

Id say Tolland averages near 60" but likely not higher. The pristine North Foster coop to your east averages 58"...they are prob in a better spot for most coastals but they are 350 feet lower than you. 

They seem to do quite well at a 500' elev at that lat then it seems.

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the 6-8 estimate is way too high. Even Union, CT where I had a decade of forecasting experiencing there and a more favorable spot than Tolland was maybe 4-5" more than N Foster. The problem is you have to play the game both ways...Tolland and Union might get storms where they get a 3" paste job and N Foster gets a coating but then there's a storm where N Foster gets 6" and they get 3-4...either a late blooming clipper/redeveloper or an inverted trough...or a scraper where east does better.

 

I'll actually get my Union totals during that decade and compare them...I have them somewhere on my comp.

The micro-climates in the N part of the CTRV can get pretty funky too.   There are years when I can have 10" higher totals than Deerfield which is 5mi S with not that much less elevation.

 I wish we had more official coop reports out here.   I really wish W MA had more NWS stations,  it is kind of pathetic that Orange is my official NWS station, it is 25mi away! 

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just did a quick check Foster has had 478 inches since 10 average 68.28 Kev total put in the Kev in Ma thread 521 74.42 average. Maybe recent bias on my part but at least the last 7 years data agrees.

You know how awful snowfall measuring can be. There is a pretty big margin of error. I still think Kevin averages very little more than Fostet when you compare longer term stuff. The near term stuff can be biased from a few good or bad winters. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You know how awful snowfall measuring can be. There is a pretty big margin of error. I still think Kevin averages very little more than Fostet when you compare longer term stuff. The near term stuff can be biased from a few good or bad winters. 

Yes I acknowledged that myself just basing on my experience living up here . Hey was made aware of this PDF, here is some spanking material for ya

http://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2016-02.pdf

 

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You know how awful snowfall measuring can be. There is a pretty big margin of error. I still think Kevin averages very little more than Fostet when you compare longer term stuff. The near term stuff can be biased from a few good or bad winters. 

If Kevin averaged 6-8" more than N Foster, then that would mean he's at 64-66" avg...that isn't really credible to me considering ORH at 1000 feet 40 miles to his northeast in a better topographic position is at 69". Way too much latitude (and a bit of a longitude) advantage to only be 3-5" more. I suspect it's closer to 8-10"

 

I certainly don't disagree there's a lot of mesoscale nuances going on in both RI and CT...and anywhere else in the interior for that matter. But given my experience with snow climo and the amount of professional time I've had to look at it for forensic write-ups, I'd feel pretty good about saying Kevin prob averages in the 60" range...I could maybe be convinced of 61-62, but that's pushing it.

 

Anyways....small sample, but here is Union, CT vs N Foster for the 11 years I had data. And remember, Union, CT is in a better spot than Kevin...northeast and at higher elevation. First column is N Foster:

 

Snowfallcompare.png.2932cf5b5725ebb71c3c38df9245e030.png

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If Kevin averaged 6-8" more than N Foster, then that would mean he's at 64-66" avg...that isn't really credible to me considering ORH at 1000 feet 40 miles to his northeast in a better topographic position is at 69". Way too much latitude (and a bit of a longitude) advantage to only be 3-5" more. I suspect it's closer to 8-10"

 

I certainly don't disagree there's a lot of mesoscale nuances going on in both RI and CT...and anywhere else in the interior for that matter. But given my experience with snow climo and the amount of professional time I've had to look at it for forensic write-ups, I'd feel pretty good about saying Kevin prob averages in the 60" range...I could maybe be convinced of 61-62, but that's pushing it.

 

Anyways....small sample, but here is Union, CT vs N Foster for the 11 years I had data. And remember, Union, CT is in a better spot than Kevin...northeast and at higher elevation. First column is N Foster:

 

Snowfallcompare.png.2932cf5b5725ebb71c3c38df9245e030.png

24 or 6 hr measures.? I'd say compare those Union numbers to Kevs in our snow thread

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The fact that the northern stream is quite active during a normal La Nina fall and winter season, this active northern stream season so far has to bode well for snow in Southern New England.  Given that we might have the propensity to have dips in the northern stream more frequently, I think some of them will link up with the arctic jet and or sub-tropical jets and double phase into a bomb of storm.  Coastal storms spawning from clippers seems the normal way to go.

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