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Fall 2017 Model Mehham

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Actually this year.. so did I

I couldn't imagine the poor schlubs who had to work for you. Every leaf...every twig...every acorn and acorn crown has to be removed with utmost precision. Blizzy out yelling at a poor crew who barely make minimum wage...telling them they missed a spot while he waxes his truck

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tnt

tnt

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today feels like March, lol.

Wet coating of white that's melted off below 1,200ft while at 1,500ft its starting to drip out of the trees.

I mean if I walked outside right now, it could definitely be March 16th instead of November 16th...minus the 20 foot snowbanks going around the parking lot.

This would be a day in March where you're like just end this...lets move on.

NOAA showing some significant snow at Stowe tonight - think it happens?  Heck on an opening day if it comes through.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

I'd rather have the "calm" pattern behave like ensembles are showing in early December than late December or January. 

I just hope we can get a little more meridional flow going soon, but that might be hard to get in a La Nina pattern.

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Feels good to not expect snow prior to December 1st, and therefore not model watch. I'm nice and rested..some of you already seem a bit burnt out chasing ghosts. 

 

I'm used to not expecting snow before January 1st so I'm good here :)

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I'd rather have the "calm" pattern behave like ensembles are showing in early December than late December or January. 

I just hope we can get a little more meridional flow going soon, but that might be hard to get in a La Nina pattern.

I'm used to not expecting snow before January 1st so I'm good here :)

La Nina will probably produce a lot of threats that don't show up until like 3-4 days out too.

We'll get these overrunning threats that scream across the country in fast flow...they'll be off the PAC coast on Monday and we'll be snowing by Wednesday night or Thursday. In your old stomping grounds, you'd prob just turn out the lights in such a pattern, but up here now, you'll have to keep an eye most of the time. Even in seemingly "boring" patterns, stuff can pop up. Even the pattern like the OP Euro has at the end...kind of zonal, but still plenty of shortwaves...a month from now, that would prob be cold enough here for some legit threats even though overall it is not a very cold pattern...but simply an active pattern with temps that aren't overly torched is good enough.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

You know, the longwave pattern both on the Euro OP and the ensembles would support a pretty good threat around Nov 26th...the question is obviously cold at this time of the year. But if that NAO block is stout enough to press and hold the cold in our region, then we can't rule it out as we get closer. Right now, it's not holding quite strong enough, but it's possible that could change. Just something to keep in mind sandwiched around the pre and post-Tday weekend mild ups.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

What does the euro show? Shall I heat up the hairdryer and run a bath?

I'm not commenting on the op since it's useless after day 7 lately. The ensembles aren't bad. Now have a pretty strong signal for a cstl low Sunday after T-Day. A little warm here, but nice to see. The blocking is trending ever so slightly stronger...meaning the models may be too quick to break down. That's a normal model bias for strong blocking patterns. 

 

I still think the best idea is to temper expectations for a little while. We are sort of in this transitory stage as we head into December. There isn't a torchy signal...nor a very strong cold signal to start the month it seems. Of course something can always sneak under the radar...but it is best to be realistic. 

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LurkerBoy

LurkerBoy

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not commenting on the op since it's useless after day 7 lately. The ensembles aren't bad. Now have a pretty strong signal for a cstl low Sunday after T-Day. A little warm here, but nice to see. The blocking is trending ever so slightly stronger...meaning the models may be too quick to break down. That's a normal model bias for strong blocking patterns. 

 

I still think the best idea is to temper expectations for a little while. We are sort of in this transitory stage as we head into December. There isn't a torchy signal...nor a very strong cold signal to start the month it seems. Of course something can always sneak under the radar...but it is best to be realistic. 

Thanks so much!

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not commenting on the op since it's useless after day 7 lately. The ensembles aren't bad. Now have a pretty strong signal for a cstl low Sunday after T-Day. A little warm here, but nice to see. The blocking is trending ever so slightly stronger...meaning the models may be too quick to break down. That's a normal model bias for strong blocking patterns. 

 

I still think the best idea is to temper expectations for a little while. We are sort of in this transitory stage as we head into December. There isn't a torchy signal...nor a very strong cold signal to start the month it seems. Of course something can always sneak under the radar...but it is best to be realistic. 

Yeah I mentioned it above...here's a good example of how the flow could look if the block trends stronger (hypothetical stronger block drawn in red lines). We'd get a better high holding its ground to our north and prob better initial cold as well:

 

 

Nov16_ECMWFensemble216.jpg

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I mentioned it above...here's a good example of how the flow could look if the block trends stronger (hypothetical stronger block drawn in red lines). We'd get a better high holding its ground to our north and prob better initial cold as well:

 

 

Yeah that's funny we both said that..lol. That's a nice visual there for those who are unsure of what we are saying. It's still fantasy land, but it's not a stretch of the imagination with that hemipsheric look.

 

Once again going forward it looks temporary Nino like with the ridging in NW Canada and signs of lower heights over the SW US. That also can be a stormy look. We'll see if it holds as guidance has been changing a lot, but the overall look has shown that for a few days.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

La Nina will probably produce a lot of threats that don't show up until like 3-4 days out too.

We'll get these overrunning threats that scream across the country in fast flow...they'll be off the PAC coast on Monday and we'll be snowing by Wednesday night or Thursday. In your old stomping grounds, you'd prob just turn out the lights in such a pattern, but up here now, you'll have to keep an eye most of the time. Even in seemingly "boring" patterns, stuff can pop up. Even the pattern like the OP Euro has at the end...kind of zonal, but still plenty of shortwaves...a month from now, that would prob be cold enough here for some legit threats even though overall it is not a very cold pattern...but simply an active pattern with temps that aren't overly torched is good enough.

I've noticed few NNE snow events popping up inside 3-4 days with NAM leading the way in recent weeks. Once the climatology allow for us to get cold enough, I have a feeling we'll have some fun here. It wouldn't surprise me if we get an event sneaking into short-term around here to end this month.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that's funny we both said that..lol. That's a nice visual there for those who are unsure of what we are saying. It's still fantasy land, but it's not a stretch of the imagination with that hemipsheric look.

 

Once again going forward it looks temporary Nino like with the ridging in NW Canada and signs of lower heights over the SW US. That also can be a stormy look. We'll see if it holds as guidance has been changing a lot, but the overall look has shown that for a few days.

Yeah the end of the EPS run actually looked pretty decent...big PNA ridge. Who knows if that will actually verify, but we could play ball with that look.

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