ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 In all seriousness though it does look like a change to colder late this month and maybe into November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Trough looks to be centered farther west than a lot of us would like though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Eh, call me crazy for not worrying about trough location in late October. Just get some cooler weather and action in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Eh, call me crazy for not worrying about trough location in late October. Just get some cooler weather and action in here. Yeah we're not getting big snows anyway that early unless you get really really lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Oh I certainly wasn't expecting snow. Just some BN anomalies would be nice. Tough to get them all the way up through NNE with a trough centered in such a position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Really nice signature of a Greenland block on the 12z GEFS. Really seems like blocking could be a big factor this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 3 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: Really nice signature of a Greenland block on the 12z GEFS. Really seems like blocking could be a big factor this year. With a moderate La Nina in place, we could be looking at prolonged miller B formation storms impacting SNE. We could see a massive Gulf of Maine low tracks and then further into the season we could see the storms track south of BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 The last moderate to strong La Nina was in 2011-2012 winter, Will how did we do in that season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The last moderate to strong La Nina was in 2011-2012 winter, Will how did we do in that season? It was actually 10-11 and New England did very well. 11-12 was a weak La Nina with record warm temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Just now, nzucker said: It was actually 10-11 and New England did very well. 11-12 was a weak La Nina with record warm temperatures. Yes according to the CPC that winter of 2010-2011 which even Cape Cod did extremely well on, that was a moderate La Nina that was followed up by another moderate La Nina, according to the CPC ENSO conditions this past winter were moderate La Nina and this year is following that trend, so it was actually 2011-2012 that was more similar to this upcoming winter than the first year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 12z EPS showing what the other model guidance is showing in the day 10 time frame, a turn towards cold and stormy regime with troughing in the Eastern US. Still not much in the way of Atlantic Ridging over Greenland, its there, but not strong yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 12z GEFS mean shows the Greenland block quite well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Baby steps I suppose. The GEFs derivatives are pretty well clustered around a PNA regime change taking the next two weeks really to materialize. But that EPO is ugly. Gotta start somewhere, and since either of those two index can sometimes precede the other, perhaps there is hope that beyond there will be some climate correction in here ... 'Course, the best way to arouse a complete reversal is to get me to assess anything at all - anyway, it's been a while since we've had a bona fide warm October. I'd be curious to see what happened in Novembers following a +2 or +3 SD Octobers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Looks like we have a nice but quick cold shot coming for Monday and Monday night...whiplash from the warmth tomorrow. This will feel much more like seasons in seasons. Monday at 18z the GFS has temps struggling to get into the mid-40s for highs (NAM is even colder for highs on Monday up here)...this is a crisp afternoon with gusty NW winds: Then clearing skies and these 850mb temps on Monday night...should lead to by far the coldest morning of the season on Tuesday morning with widespread 20s in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 22 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Looks like we have a nice but quick cold shot coming for Monday and Monday night...whiplash from the warmth tomorrow. This will feel much more like seasons in seasons. Monday at 18z the GFS has temps struggling to get into the mid-40s for highs (NAM is even colder for highs on Monday up here)...this is a crisp afternoon with gusty NW winds: Then clearing skies and these 850mb temps on Monday night...should lead to by far the coldest morning of the season on Tuesday morning with widespread 20s in NNE. My prediction for first freeze at BTV was 10/16 Ekster had 10/17. Looks like I'll have to beat him by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Anyone still think 07-08 is a good analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 11 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said: Anyone still think 07-08 is a good analog? I think it's early to say. At this stage, you could pick any analog. Also, I see some weenieing out over Greenland ridging. Way too early to foreshadow anything in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 More massive torching Wed-Sunday this week. Never ending summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 It was actually 10-11 and New England did very well. 11-12 was a weak La Nina with record warm temperatures.We did horrible up in NNE in 11-12. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: We did horrible up in NNE in 11-12. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk It was bad everywhere except the picnic tables at 4K in nrn VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Through Friday, ORH was at +7.4F for October. This week (other than Monday and Tuesday) should add to that. Record month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Are you still AN the week of the 23rd or do fronts bring season temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It was bad everywhere except the picnic tables at 4K in nrn VT. It was still very bad up there... Still is the second lowest snow total (223" or something like that) in the past 25 years, beaten only by the true ratter of 15-16 (153"). We did have over 90" in town though, which is poor but some fun events in 2011-12. I'd put that in a category as one of those poor winters that somehow has a couple fun events (17" at home in the late Feb storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It was still very bad up there... Still is the second lowest snow total (223" or something like that) in the past 25 years, beaten only by the true ratter of 15-16 (153"). We did have over 90" in town though, which is poor but some fun events in 2011-12. I'd put that in a category as one of those poor winters that somehow has a couple fun events (17" at home in the late Feb storm). That period from late Fall 2011 and through Jan 2013 was literally the worst period for winter wx that I can recall. It was one bone job after another...topped off with 12/29/12 where somehow I was raining with a pocket of marine taint over my fanny...but in every direction...N,W,S it was snowing. Then Will calls me up telling me how it flipped to snow as he came out of the Pru tunnel. That was a good meltdown from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 I can't wait until we get a big storm. I love watching how hyped up the New England threads get. Mods have to come in and say serious talk only and stuff. I remember browsing through a couple times back when I still lived in the Midwest and just was in awe. I'm on the kind of weenie level that a lot of ya'll in the Northeast are and it's just not the same in the Midwest. Can't wait for meltdowns, wishcasters, hypers, bring it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 minute ago, LoveSN+ said: I can't wait until we get a big storm. I love watching how hyped up the New England threads get. Mods have to come in and say serious talk only and stuff. I remember browsing through a couple times back when I still lived in the Midwest and just was in awe. I'm on the kind of weenie level that a lot of ya'll in the Northeast are and it's just not the same in the Midwest. Can't wait for meltdowns, wishcasters, hypers, bring it all. Welcome to the land of real snow storms. LOL, J/K. However, we do snowstorms well compared to similar low elevation spots in the country. You may not have strong winds in Albany, but you can get clobbered by a slow moving cstl hugger. Unfortunately, that usually means rain and/or dryslot here. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That period from late Fall 2011 and through Jan 2013 was literally the worst period for winter wx that I can recall. It was one bone job after another...topped off with 12/29/12 where somehow I was raining with a pocket of marine taint over my fanny...but in every direction...N,W,S it was snowing. Then Will calls me up telling me how it flipped to snow as he came out of the Pru tunnel. That was a good meltdown from me. The best part of winter 2011-12 was the multiple 3am drunken rants from that guy snowNH or something...where he'd write paragraphs that were one long run on sentence about how he's going to go crazy if he sees it snowing in northern VT one more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Welcome to the land of real snow storms. LOL, J/K. However, we do snowstorms well compared to similar low elevation spots in the country. You may not have strong winds in Albany, but you can get clobbered by a slow moving cstl hugger. Unfortunately, that usually means rain and/or dryslot here. LOL. The overrunning events are usually good for all of us...and clippers for smaller events. But yeah, when it's a coastal, some of us usually need to do poorly for ALB to do well. Though a lot of interior New England will often do well when Albany does well...and sometimes the occasionally coastal will hit all of us...I think the Feb 9 event this past winter got all of us...it was progressive which didn't let a lot of warm air in. Even codfishsnowman was doing backflips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The overrunning events are usually good for all of us...and clippers for smaller events. But yeah, when it's a coastal, some of us usually need to do poorly for ALB to do well. Though a lot of interior New England will often do well when Albany does well...and sometimes the occasionally coastal will hit all of us...I think the Feb 9 event this past winter got all of us...it was progressive which didn't let a lot of warm air in. Even codfishsnowman was doing backflips. Yeah I was thinking the bigger events...storms that the Midwest can have trouble seeing as frequently as we do. Obviously they do happen there..but am thinking more the frequency of 8" or greater events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The overrunning events are usually good for all of us...and clippers for smaller events. But yeah, when it's a coastal, some of us usually need to do poorly for ALB to do well. Though a lot of interior New England will often do well when Albany does well...and sometimes the occasionally coastal will hit all of us...I think the Feb 9 event this past winter got all of us...it was progressive which didn't let a lot of warm air in. Even codfishsnowman was doing backflips. I generally look at ORH as the dividing line (what else is new? Lol) in a lot of systems. Coastals that jack ORH east or coastals that jack ORH westward. But ORH usually comes out ok in both situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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