ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Its an odd evolution that's for sure on the Euro, Taken verbatim, I'm in that .25-.28" contour but i remain skeptical that we see more then a slushy inch. Could be the type of thing where you are getting white rain or slush balls falling during the height but having trouble sticking...so maybe you technically get 0.35" of QPF that "falls as snow" but don't have much to show for it on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Could be the type of thing where you are getting white rain or slush balls falling during the height but having trouble sticking...so maybe you technically get 0.35" of QPF that "falls as snow" but don't have much to show for it on the ground. The problem has been in the H9-H95 area, Its been pretty torched on all these runs, But like you said, If we can rip for a bit maybe we cool it before we lose all the precip and cash in on an inch or two down below 1,200'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: The problem has been in the H9-H95 area, Its been pretty torched on all these runs, But like you said, If we can rip for a bit maybe we cool it before we lose all the precip and cash in on an inch or two down below 1,200'. Yeah...I mean I'll be honest, if I was where you are, I'd definitely watch it really closely. Sometimes these things go nuclear and you get pasted at 32-33F for 4 hours and end up with a surprise 4-6" of snow...it's happened before. You just need big time UVVs in the snow growth region and you'll get more latent (and upward dynamic) cooling in the 900-950 range than models give credit for. But on the flip side, I've seen scenarios where I become convinced we can overcome the lowest 2000 feet due to a nuking low, and it just never quite materializes or happens too little too late. So I personally would probably remain somewhat skeptical below 1500 feet until the event is basically underway and then watch closely at the nowcast trends. I'd like to see one more tick stronger with all the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...I mean I'll be honest, if I was where you are, I'd definitely watch it really closely. Sometimes these things go nuclear and you get pasted at 32-33F for 4 hours and end up with a surprise 4-6" of snow...it's happened before. You just need big time UVVs in the snow growth region and you'll get more latent cooling in the 900-950 range than models give credit for. But on the flip side, I've seen scenarios where I become convinced we can overcome the lowest 2000 feet due to a nuking low, and it just never quite materializes or happens too little too late. So I personally would probably remain somewhat skeptical below 1500 feet until the event is basically underway and then watch closely at the nowcast trends. I'd like to see one more tick stronger with all the dynamics. Yeah, Its close and will be watching no doubt, I have been burned by a few miles before so i would not be surprised if we can't cool the BL, Its has been mentioned more then once on here, But if this was another 2-3 weeks later, With cooler SST's, We would be discussing jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 29 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yawn.... too bad we couldn’t muster up anything over the last week. Looks totally boring moving forward... wake me up 2nd week of Dec..... see where we are Well this was pegged by some as the "Snowy" week...and it didn't and not going to happen. I wouldn't snooze just yet though with regard to next week, models are all over the place-every one of them, with each run as well. Things could evolve quickly...but like Will said "who knows?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 That op GFS run is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 I will say, that was a nice compromise from 0Z to 12z on guidance. The GEFS ensembles lowered Heights out west and in Western Canada in the 11 to 15 day, and the EPS raised heights in the exact same area. It was nice to see the EPS go in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I will say, that was a nice compromise from 0Z to 12z on guidance. The GEFS ensembles lowered Heights out west and in Western Canada in the 11 to 15 day, and the EPS raised heights in the exact same area. It was nice to see the EPS go in that direction. Thank goodness the wpo remains strong. If we can get rid of the stubborn troughing in w canada/e pac, we would be ready to roll. With all things considered though, it’s not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well this was pegged by some as the "Snowy" week...and it didn't and not going to happen. I wouldn't snooze just yet though with regard to next week, models are all over the place-every one of them, with each run as well. Things could evolve quickly...but like Will said "who knows?" The best pattern possible doesn’t mean it will yield favorable results. Look at the big picture more and stop worrying about individual swings that cause your uncertainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 We stay BN thankfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 I just noticed that the EPS has gone towards colder in the 11-15. It may have something to do with the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Thanks Larry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 The CFS outlook for Nov is tanking already btw. It’s trash, utterly useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The CFS outlook for Nov is tanking already btw. It’s trash, utterly useless. If you go back and look at all the seasonal models, They had Nov being a furnace, I place 0 stock in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Uncle Leo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 27 minutes ago, dryslot said: If you go back and look at all the seasonal models, They had Nov being a furnace, I place 0 stock in them. Yeah...woops. Even on October 31st, the CFS outlook for November was a furnace. Awful. We noted that the EPO/WPO kind of argued for more chill than some of the guidance was initially letting on...it seems to find a way eastward when the CONUS flow buckles a bit or changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...woops. Even on October 31st, the CFS outlook for November was a furnace. Awful. We noted that the EPO/WPO kind of argued for more chill than some of the guidance was initially letting on...it seems to find a way eastward when the CONUS flow buckles a bit or changes. Not a one of them, Jamstec, Cansips or the CFS even had temps being at normal for Nov never mind that we will probably end up BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not a one of them, Jamstec, Cansips or the CFS even had temps being at normal for Nov never mind that we will probably end up BN. Fukkem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Fukkem Every last one of them Jerry............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 weenie gfs run, big boys blocking up front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 The GEFS are wierd lately, changing drastically over the past day man. As of 18z they look good however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The best pattern possible doesn’t mean it will yield favorable results. Look at the big picture more and stop worrying about individual swings that cause your uncertainy. Lol...I said exactly that Berg, about a good pattern not necessarily yielding results a few days ago. And it's not only me who is uncertain about the longer range. And I'm not worrying about individual swings of modeling at all...I don't know where that ever came from either?? You don't seem to be understanding my posts..and perhaps that is my fault for not explaining it well enough...I don't know? I am agreeing with you more than I think you are realizing...so let's just drop this stupidity... I'm on board with the potential...but right now it's just potential. There are some decent signs already..and Im feeling pretty decent for the season going forward as well. And yes the CFSV-2 has sucked since that dumb thing came out...what a joke..I never bought in to any of its nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowy Lolli's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 really ? ...if you say so. i saw five consecutive cold-rain-cold, repeaters through the whole 300+ hours of that run. not the front-end loaded winter i had in mind.. haha. anyway, it's okay for now, but if we get to xmas with this bs ..it's officially a back-ender or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: really ? ...if you say so. i saw five consecutive cold-rain-cold, repeaters through the whole 300+ hours of that run. not the front-end loaded winter i had in mind.. haha. anyway, it's okay for now, but if we get to xmas with this bs ..it's officially a back-ender or bust. Yeah... nice run I guess. Fails to produce a damn thing for just about everyone though. Things can look great.... let’s see it produce something other than rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 I dunno..I wouldn't even look for snow. Just be happy the one eyed cyclops is not in AK. Climo is so hostile in November, Brett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I dunno..I wouldn't even look for snow. Just be happy the one eyed cyclops is not in AK. Climo is so hostile in November, Brett. Sad that some still need snow precip maps over their hood to justify what is good or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Its normal to want snow in your hood, but most know november snows are not happening to much of a degree. Thou, elevations in central and North New England have the potential in a active pattern and i always want someone to cash in. Plus im sick and will chase snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Forgettable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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