LurkerBoy Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: LMAO, the gfs chances later next week. Ice box into the Plains. Can you post graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Just now, LurkerBoy said: Can you post graphics? I dunno, can you handle a T-Day torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 So much for the AK vortex on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I dunno, can you handle a T-Day torch? Turkey in speedos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Sorry I meant changes, not chances. Anyways, that is a massive cold dump into the Plains. We would be on the warm side, but wow. That is one of the biggest changes I've seen in a while. Doesn't mean it has to be correct, but it's not in fairytale land being a week out or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Turkey in speedos? Borat Speedo as you serve Turkey and all the trimmings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Sorry I meant changes, not chances. Anyways, that is a massive cold dump into the Plains. We would be on the warm side, but wow. That is one of the biggest changes I've seen in a while. Doesn't mean it has to be correct, but it's not in fairytale land being a week out or so. Yeah... meh. Seems like quite the outlier for now. I wouldn't mind a turkey day roaster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 When Thanksgiving falls early like this year and next, it’s harder for the atmosphere to do the trick in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Can you post graphics? Do you have access to the internet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: By W1 I assume you mean something of a GOAK type trough deal? Actually the NATL side this time. We did just have a nice w2 pulse from the NPAC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Do you have access to the internet? 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I dunno, can you handle a T-Day torch? Y’all really know how to make people not want to keep posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Can you post graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Dumbfounded by pingers ripping at me at 50 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Just now, LurkerBoy said: Y’all really know how to make people not want to keep posting LOL, we are kidding. Dendrite FTW. Click on Z 5 anomaly and then look at the 15/00z run compared to 15/12z run at around hr 174. http://wx.graphics/models/gfs/gfs.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Just now, WxBlue said: Congrats on your first bun issuance. You are fitting in just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Gfs gave us 6-12 yesterday. Today 70 degrees for Tgiving. Garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 One advantage to watching these runs is it relays nicely how uncertain the medium to long term is right now. We're not seeing a whole lot of consistency int he handling of the high latitudes right now. I know it's already been hashed out several times...Chris up at GYX showed how bad the models perform when the PAC looks like that...but it probably can't be overstated for those who are looking for some type of expectation or confident forecast for T-day weekend and beyond...the short answer is "who knows"...it's more uncertainty than usual in the D8-14 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: One advantage to watching these runs is it relays nicely how uncertain the medium to long term is right now. We're not seeing a whole lot of consistency int he handling of the high latitudes right now. I know it's already been hashed out several times...Chris up at GYX showed how bad the models perform when the PAC looks like that...but it probably can't be overstated for those who are looking for some type of expectation or confident forecast for T-day weekend and beyond...the short answer is "who knows"...it's more uncertainty than usual in the D8-14 range. Check out how it starts. That s/w amplifies coming south of AK past hr 120 and keeps going SSW. That boosts ridging north, and off she goes. Right or wrong, always amazing to see how changes that seem so innocent just get the ball rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 ORH is very uncertain, that should make Wolfie happy. I do like the wpo/epo there at the end but gfs op runs past 12hr are trash. I guess we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 49 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Y’all really know how to make people not want to keep posting You need to thicken up your skin, Or your in for a long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ORH is very uncertain, that should make Wolfie happy. I do like the wpo/epo there at the end but gfs op runs past 12hr are trash. I guess we wait. LOL...doesn't make me happy...just Drives my POINT home big time...but you didn't want to hear it.... Make the call Berg, Big event incoming for Turkey day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: LOL...doesn't make me happy...just Drives my POINT home big time...but you didn't want to hear it.... Make the call Berg, Big event incoming for Turkey day.. lol, again thats NOT the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gfs gave us 6-12 yesterday. Today 70 degrees for Tgiving. Garbage You'll be cutting the lawn while Houston sees snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: lol, again thats NOT the point. For me it is!! You can feel the way you want and make a call(I think that's fine), I was uncertain cuz of the waffling of the modeling...and that's still the way I feel. So I don't have any idea what you're trying to say other than you are making a call or feel a certain way, and I'm not sure about the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 hours ago, CT Rain said: Turkey in speedos? Shrinkage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 QPF as snow on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Yawn.... too bad we couldn’t muster up anything over the last week. Looks totally boring moving forward... wake me up 2nd week of Dec..... see where we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: QPF as snow on the Euro Those are pretty optimistic maps based on the verbatim temps of the Euro...it has a real hard time getting 925mb to 0C. I'd be skeptical in lower elevations probably until the event starts. I'd want to see amazing UVVs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: QPF as snow on the Euro Its an odd evolution that's for sure on the Euro, Taken verbatim, I'm in that .25-.28" contour but i remain skeptical that we see more then a slushy inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.