Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[CoastalWx]

It's a good thing we have a low sun angle in November to analyze the catpaws an extra 30 seconds before they melt. Phew.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It broke down quicker AWT thanks to those images. That's my point. I know it goes against the narrative of cold and snow, but it's happening. I'll repeat what I said days ago. The NAO will break down end of month(which it is doing) and hopefully a more dateline ridge/-EPO sets up in December(which some long range guidance has). These graphics aren't voodoo. They are made to look at things differently than traditional Wheeler diagrams. Those diagrams can be contaminated with noise. So far so good. I'm hoping any relaxation is only for a short time, but remember how long it can take if we get that dateline  ridge. It may force a more -PNA at first. We then need it to bleed east. Hypothetically speaking of course.

Being Nov its virtually a lock that NAO state is transient

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Why is the op gfs used and not gefs?

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Besides that silly voodoo.. the pattern as shown in today’s EPS would clearly yield several WAN days and 50+.. which for late Nov is a furnace. 

Your average daily temp is 38 degrees Nov 27th, enjoy 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Why is the op gfs used and not gefs?

I think some products use GEFS, but I am unsure exactly which ones. Anyways, it's just a piece of the puzzle..but tends to be a significant player. Sometimes it serves as a nice check as to whether guidance is realistic or not. And of course you are only as good as the model is, so buyer beware. 

Ok well back to reality-ville...18z GFS looked better for a DE destroyer in Maine later Thursday.

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your average daily temp is 38 degrees Nov 27th, enjoy 

Sucks that Archambault event is lost. Was looking forward to sonething next week . Really bummed 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The h5 on 18z gfs doesnt make a whole lot of sense spacing wise. IF you have a compressed block just north of hudson bay while the lead system from saturday turns into a favorable low over OSUmet’s head (dissapating rather quickly), all during a rising pna.....the shortwave in w canada can’t slide west to east next week like that. Has to dig south more, me thinks. 

[CT Rain]

Not impossible we could luck out given this look. 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the ridge isn't in a bad spot...slightly east of where I'd normally want it but there is NAO blocking which helps out when you have tight spacing. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the ridge isn't in a bad spot...slightly east of where I'd normally want it but there is NAO blocking which helps out when you have tight spacing. 

Yeah it seems like that ridge is a hair too far east and a bit too positively tilted in its orientation. Still, move that ridge over the Rockies/High Plains a smidge west and with that NAO block in place you're in business.

Given that EPO/GOA look once the NAO breaks down we torch - at least for a bit. 

[LurkerBoy]

11 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah it seems like that ridge is a hair too far east and a bit too positively tilted in its orientation. Still, move that ridge over the Rockies/High Plains a smidge west and with that NAO block in place you're in business.

Given that EPO/GOA look once the NAO breaks down we torch - at least for a bit. 

Define torch.

[weathafella]

Just now, LurkerBoy said:

Define torch.

80+

[SnowHole413]

Just now, LurkerBoy said:

Define torch.

Warmer, above average.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It’s the AK trough causing the tight squeeze, pushing the ridge more east than ideal. Fade that feature and it’s bombs away. 

[dryslot]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Define torch.

For a select few, its 0.5C and above. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a good thing we have a low sun angle in November to analyze the catpaws an extra 30 seconds before they melt. Phew.

Yeah tough time of year to live on the coast, can't utilize low that sun angle.  

<duck and run>

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sucks that Archambault event is lost. Was looking forward to sonething next week . Really bummed 

It is?

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

For a select few, its 0.5C and above. 

 Brutally AN

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It is?

If the model doesn’t show a big L south of Montauk with surface precip maps shaded for snow, it’s not happening.  

Interesting look. If we split gfs and this, we can spin something up.

[moneypitmike]

What a sh*t-show of a pattern thread thread this is......3 pages of arguing March vs. November.  My gosh......

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

What a sh*t-show of a pattern thread thread this is......3 pages of arguing March vs. November.  My gosh......

Enjoy the sh*t-show...it’s the only sh*t-show we got

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6z gfs is pretty close to a weenie turkey day solution for interior. gefs not that impressed though. Worth monitoring esp anytime you have push back to our north. 

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

What a sh*t-show of a pattern thread thread this is......3 pages of arguing March vs. November.  My gosh......

Tangential discussion. Happens all the time.

[weathafella]

Maybe a better discussion is December vs February.   February is obviously a big snow month.  But December sometimes is and retention in December is superior with the same pattern.

[MarkO]

The Quebec high is the only thing missing in the 6hr GFS. It's still a good 9 days out so not sure why is doesn't warrant watching.

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting behavior at very high latitudes in recent operational Euro trend, quite consistent therein.

Over the far northern reaches of the Canadian archipelago the atmosphere is modeled to pool some wicked cold.  Depictions in the Euro and GFS for that matter have 850 mb temperatures starting off as deep as -25 C, and intensify to -30 to -32 C; at this time of year, a soundings in those regions would most likely be intensely inverted, too.

Between D4 and D6 ...  these models then displace that cold WSE toward Alaska. The GFS does this as well, but perhaps 2 or 3 C less dramatic.

Either way, it might be interesting to monitor Alaska over the next several days as that plume of cold moves in; entering the greatest backward tilt of the planetary axis time of year, the implication over all offers pretty much zippo hope for warm modification. The interior (Fairbanks and surrounding environs) can get surreal cold at times, but that's usually because the air is stagnate and still, with exceptionally long nights ...and they radiate very proficiently over extended periods of time until the air mass really bottoms out.  But this is a bit different in the sense that it is a mass of chill air that is bodily moving in - not sure how an arriving air mass may or may not play into the radiational method of cold genesis.

It's an arctic, atmospheric slosh event ... Noticed D. Straight during that time?  Huge warm plume penetrates west on the heals of the overall displacement described above; most likely associated with the -NAO that the models are trying to simultaneously deny/mute it will actually happen, while holding onto hints and semblances that it will (head scratcher).

Wouldn't it be something if the EPO unexpectedly tanked in three or four days, subsequently dislodging that Alaskan/NW Territory cold mass ... triggering it to cascade into the circulation structure of a rising PNA?  The entire life cycle culminating in a weather channel reporter in the outskirts of Tower MN, heaving a cup of boiling water to demonstrate the physics of saturation vapor pressure.  I saw that demoed once back ... early 1990s I think it was.  With extreme rapidity, half the contents of the water quite literally 'hissed' like an irritated feline and vanished into a micro plume that emulated an actual thunderstorm anvil, while the other half fell to the ground in shards that sounded a lot like the shimmer off a prism jostling.  It's a really fantastic physical experiment - the ambient temperature at the time was -41 F or something.  

I still like the implication ..  for the 20th through the 25th, despite the 00z cycle of model runs seemingly, deliberately parameterized not to create any storms (heh, jesus).  The interval in question is flagged by the GEFs -based teleconnectors, and has been for a few days.  Not sure what the EPS is indicating there, but the GEFs want to jolt the PNA up by some 2 SD of recovery... Granted, it doesn't go exceptionally positive? However, recovering from -2 to +0 or 1 implies a robust mass realignment potential. We have to remember, ...the PNA is a very, very large domain space, a box that contains like 1/3rd of he planetary atmospheric mass or something (maybe that much but you get the gist...) What that means is that comparatively smaller movements in the numbers of that index "could" represent bigger evidences/ disruptions anywhere in its domain region... Since the atmosphere still moves west-to east as baser maxim ...usually one can gamble on a representation over North America.  Not always .... we then have to turn to idiosyncrasies in the flow for the dailies and so forth, but at least the table's set. 

So we'll see.. the 06z as others have noted looked more promising for something to monitor and have fun with.. Such model solutions are a reasonable fit for that evolution/period, and less like an extended merely representing random permutations/fractals blown up out in time. Or ..perhaps a better philosophical approach would be guess work that has more chance of actually verifying -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, MarkO said:

The Quebec high is the only thing missing in the 6hr GFS. It's still a good 9 days out so not sure why is doesn't warrant watching.

The potential is there regardless of surface maps, yea. If the old weenie logic has any merit, we don’t want perfection at D7+, only downhill from there. 

Regardless, that’s a nice look if the pna rises as the block strengthens. It’s never a done deal that something pops, but I’ll play those odds.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The potential is there regardless of surface maps, yea. If the old weenie logic has any merit, we don’t want perfection at D7+, only downhill from there. 

Regardless, that’s a nice look if the pna rises as the block strengthens. It’s never a done deal that something pops, but I’ll play those odds.

So would I Berg :-).  Something to track going into next week would be nice for sure.

[CoastalWx]

I am not sure it's a 0% threat next week. The euro op, toss. here is why. That ULL digs into Mexico and retros on the op. I highly doubt that will happen based off of its own ensembles and GFS. So while the chance IMO is low of something T-Day....I am always a little concerned of Gulf of Mexico moisture modeled with an approach disturbance in the Plains.