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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

The key phrase is "Arctic airmass"....which I bolded.

 

Surface temps of 19F will offset soil warmth this early. But when you have a day of 35F or 37F like today, that soil warmth is screaming from below without anything on the surface to offset it. That's why dendrite's snow goes poof.

 

And since it is November, you are getting tons of days above freezing...even in a below average airmass like today.

  You just shake your head and move on.

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17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

or his soil was frozen from the days of cold?

soilTemp.png

I really didn't want to start an argument.  The snow that fell up here came literally as the temps were falling.  Soil definitely wasn't frozen.  It was like 50F before that FROPA.  Now the ground is definitely frozen but not 5 days ago.

It makes sense on both sides.  

All I was saying is I had 0.8" sit around for 4 days in the first half of November with sunshine.  The sunshine in March would've taken care of it easily regardless of temps.  That's all, lol.

 

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s the part you’re not grasping . It’s vital 

I would def prefer a 15" bomb on Halloween over March 30th....

The point is that one actually happens way more frequently than the other. The Halloween bombs almost never happen...like literally. 1 in 300 years?

 

 

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The one thing I agree with November snows is you appreciate it more.  Like seeing Dendrite and Gene excited over 1" of snow isn't something that happens any other time of year...like Dendrite said, he doesn't even notice yesterday if it's March.  But in Novie we are calling our wives to see what's happening at home as an area of 15-20dbz moves through.  

Like I'm still getting enjoyment out of 1-2" that fell last Thursday night.  Driving home this afternoon just having it be white (albeit it tapers to quite scattered snow near home, like only on leaves or logs) along the road gets you stoked.  In March this is total nuisance stuff.

IMG_7323.JPG.658681a655aa45d9e5613b61e386b7fc.JPG

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would def prefer a 15" bomb on Halloween over March 30th....

The point is that one actually happens way more frequently than the other. The Halloween bombs almost never happen...like literally. 1 in 300 years?

 

 

There's certainly no arguing that March is a climo snowier month.  It's not even close.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would def prefer a 15" bomb on Halloween over March 30th....

The point is that one actually happens way more frequently than the other. The Halloween bombs almost never happen...like literally. 1 in 300 years?

 

 

Scoots is saying he’d rather a big Morch snowstorm with high sun angle, melting easier, spring , no upcoming holidays etc.. I honestly don’t get that. To each own 

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43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We need a regionwide snowstorm. You can tell everyone is itching....so close yet so far.

 

The pattern being favorable for snow does not mean there will be a favorable outcome and this is why I try not to let myself get worked up by "potential" early season events.  Reload cold and troughiness or blocking for mid-December please. 

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scoots is saying he’d rather a big Morch snowstorm with high sun angle, melting easier, spring , no upcoming holidays etc.. I honestly don’t get that. To each own 

No, I think when people say they prefer March, it's that they prefer that month due to snow climo...not because they'd rather have a 12" snowstorm in March vs Thanksgiving all else equal. If you are a big snow fan...then you definitely should like the month of March more than the month of November...one has overwhelmingly higher snow climo than the other...and it isn't close...at all.

 

That's not the same as saying "I'd prefer a blizzard on March 27th instead of Thanksgiving"....I think pretty much everyone would prefer the snow in late November, it's just that it isn't very realistic. If someone says to me "what month to your prefer as a snow lover?"....I'd pick March without hesitation. March produces snow...November generally doesn't. I wish it was the other way around, but wishing doesn't make it so.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, I think when people say they prefer March, it's that they prefer that month due to snow climo...not because they'd rather have a 12" snowstorm in March vs Thanksgiving all else equal. If you are a big snow fan...then you definitely should like the month of March more than the month of November...one has overwhelmingly higher snow climo than the other...and it isn't close...at all.

 

That's not the same as saying "I'd prefer a blizzard on March 27th instead of Thanksgiving"....I think pretty much everyone would prefer the snow in late November, it's just that it isn't very realistic. If someone says to me "what month to your prefer as a snow lover?"....I'd pick March without hesitation. March produces snow...November generally doesn't. I wish it was the other way around, but wishing doesn't make it so.

Yes, this is not a trade or one vs the other. It's years and years of data suggesting the March simply is the more wintry month. The delusions of November being a wintry month with snow and cold all the time along with low sun angle, equate to the wet dreams of weenies thinking of a nuclear winter. It's just not going to happen. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, I think when people say they prefer March, it's that they prefer that month due to snow climo...not because they'd rather have a 12" snowstorm in March vs Thanksgiving all else equal. If you are a big snow fan...then you definitely should like the month of March more than the month of November...one has overwhelmingly higher snow climo than the other...and it isn't close...at all.

 

That's not the same as saying "I'd prefer a blizzard on March 27th instead of Thanksgiving"....I think pretty much everyone would prefer the snow in late November, it's just that it isn't very realistic. If someone says to me "what month to your prefer as a snow lover?"....I'd pick March without hesitation. March produces snow...November generally doesn't. I wish it was the other way around, but wishing doesn't make it so.

It's definitely a pyschological thing too...we always want to rush seasons.  Like October weather is often nicer and warmer than April.  But in April everyone wants 70F and sunny every day, not in October.  

That first warm day in the spring is like a 1-3" snow in Novie.  It makes you think a lot more is possible but climo says pump the brakes.

I will say November just doesn't seem to do snowstorms.  I can rattle off like 6 Octobers with 12-18"+ storms at the mountain since 2000 but I can think of maybe 1 November for a big snow dump (2014?).  October seems to produce those wet blue snow bombs in the elevations but not November.  I can't figure out why there aren't bigger November events, especially in the mountains.  

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Just now, WintersComing said:

Think we need to just stay focused on the fact that there are more favorable signs than not (long range) that things are looking a bit better for winter than they did say a month ago or so.

I am not sure why people say this. What was out there that looked unfavorable a month ago? The CFS? We all know how that model is.

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3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Think we need to just stay focused on the fact that there are more favorable signs than not (long range) that things are looking a bit better for winter than they did say a month ago or so.

The fact that November will likely come in BN and the composite of the month will have good N PAC poleward Aleutian ridging is definitely a good sign going into December. It suggests that any relaxation of the PAC will probably be short lived.

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