Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: The euro ensembles still have a pretty good low heading by Toronto. I think the s/w itself is pretty sharp, thus causing that track. well...I wasn't referring to just that track ... the whole operational run is more supportive of blocking/curvi-linear buckling in the D. Straight region and actual ridge node there. It may ultimately not matter ... but the operational Euro's handling of the NAO has been a bit of an experiment for me as I've been straw-man arguing. heh. By the way folks, the wave coming on board out west near lower BC might want to be watched on the 00z guidance. It's been charged a bit on this GFS fantasy as though a more physical sampling - assuming there is something there - is making the wave more important. As is, that's really close to clipping eastern zones with exit dynamics on Friday later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hopefully, LurkerBoy, and Leo see your post..those are two nervous posters for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It kind of makes you wonder whether the loading pattern biases the models. It kind of suggests 11-15 may be too cold given the current pattern and it may be warmer than advertised before the reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: It kind of makes you wonder whether the loading pattern biases the models. It kind of suggests 11-15 may be too cold given the current pattern and it may be warmer than advertised before the reload. But Jerry, isn't Ginxy's post saying just the opposite?? Models are failing to see the cold coming in the longer range the last couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But Jerry, isn't Ginxy's post saying just the opposite?? Models are failing to see the cold coming in the longer range the last couple weeks. My point is verification now was initialized in the midst of the very warm pattern 2weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: My point is verification now was initialized in the midst of the very warm pattern 2weeks ago. I am becoming convinced that there is going to be an Archambault event around here. Probably rain on the coast as that's our climo but not far inland this could get interesting in the next 7 to 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: My point is verification now was initialized in the midst of the very warm pattern 2weeks ago. Wave breaking and blocking have been a nemesis to computer models forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: I am becoming convinced that there is going to be an Archambault event around here. Probably rain on the coast as that's our climo but not far inland this could get interesting in the next 7 to 10 days Some of my analogs had Novie snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 James only hope is the GFS because the euro guidance is ZZZZZZZ the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 James only hope is the GFS because the euro guidance is ZZZZZZZ the next two weeks. We wax, we wane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 The GEFS are pretty weenieish. They keep the PNA positive out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 When this happens we know what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The GEFS are pretty weenieish. They keep the PNA positive out west. Interestingly, CMC ensembles kind of split the difference on the 0Z guidance. Maybe that’s the best approach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Interestingly, CMC ensembles kind of split the difference on the 0Z guidance. Maybe that’s the best approach? Yeah not a bad split there. EC is just meh. The other guidance at least offers interesting wx. The 00z EPS did trend higher with heights out west, and looked like it was trying to reload towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 The look under the block looks too explosive not to spark something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Ed Vallee says the NAO will remain neg for the foreseeable future...imho, things look good moving forward for seasons in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said: Ed Vallee says the NAO will remain neg for the foreseeable future...imho, things look good moving forward for seasons in seasons. Depends how far one sees into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Depends how far one sees into the future. Yep. I also would not be obsessed with a -NAO either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Might be a snowy holiday period next week centered on travel day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 agree with Steve (or whomever that/those was/were) that there is an emerging A. signal in the last 10 days of the month. it's been lurking in the GEF's derivatives for awhile now ... Last night's computations make that signal the loudest it's been to date, indicating a +2 SD PNA recovery at both agencies between now and the 23rd of the month, and lingering (still) out there, which may add to some sort of restoring event(s), the NOA is also actively switching into negative mode during that 18th - 25th time frame (we've beaten that horse to a pulp already). Getting to +D(PNA)/ -NAO in doing so probably should send an opportunity or two through the eastern continent. With our luck...we'll rain blithely avoiding what people want while still not violating the theoretical implications of these teleconnector modalities... Science wins, everyone is miserable ... goal achieved. just so that nimrods blame the theoretician/method for their cryo- misfortune... but, at least the chances look better for SOMEthing in that time frame. Seems we've broken the monotony of a warm pattern right into a "cancel out pattern" ... Sarcasm aside, I still like the take away as we've gotten deeper into this month, re the -EPO witnessed. The frigid (relatively so..) air mass that transpired recently was pretty much delivered right off that. i mean if there can be such a thing as an omen in this crazy hobby ... it's probably better that happened than did not. How about the cold in Alaska D6-10 in the oper. Euro. oy... -30 C at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The look under the block looks too explosive not to spark something. I agree. You would think something should and would pop. But, we've all seen nice set ups that yield nothing....this just may be one of those here, as unfortunate as that sounds; that has to be taken into consideration so as to keep expectations in check. Hopefully it's not though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Wave breaking and blocking have been a nemesis to computer models forever. We see this time and time again. Models playing "catch-up" to the developing pattern. The anxiousness is palpable in here as people are looking for something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I agree. You would think something should and would pop. But, we've all seen nice set ups that yield nothing....this just may be one of those here, as unfortunate as that sounds; that has to be taken into consideration so as to keep expectations in check. Hopefully it's not though. You and your “hopefully but maybe not, possible yet possibly not, I dunno it could or it could not”. I never know what you truly believe in lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You and your “hopefully but maybe not, possible yet possibly not, I dunno it could or it could not”. I never know what you truly believe in lol. I truly believe that nobody really knows Berg....that's it in a nutshell. It's been that way since this science began, I don't know what's so hard to understand about that? I agreed with your statement that something should pop. But it doesn't mean it will...and that's the point. Simple idea there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I truly believe that nobody really knows Berg....that's it in a nutshell. It's been that way since this science began, I don't know what's so hard to understand about that? I agreed with your statement that something should pop. But it doesn't mean it will...and that's the point. Simple idea there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: God I hope I never see my big dogs doing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Some on here are going top have to be placed in a rubber room before we even reach Met winter, I would suggest take a couple steps back from the daily roller coaster ride on the guidance and let it play out over the next couple weeks before obsessing over every run and who on twitter says what and where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: God I hope I never see my big dogs doing that You have them well trained it seems. Can’t say the same for WinterWolfie, he’s gone wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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