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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said:

Got it. Bit of fear of reverting back to the Sep/Oct pattern. Hoping we can maintain the ~avg pattern we’re in. 

It could easily happen as we relax going forward a bit. You're going to have a stroke if you worry this much. I would just sit back, roll one up, and watch the oranges and reds overtake NYC on south. 

 

 

J/K

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The warmer look appears legit if the larger scale features are correct...we get some lower heights across AK while we lose the -NAO...that will flatten everything and give us a zonal milder look. It does appear the hemispheric pattern is about to reload the EPO though...so it would probably get better extrapolating out.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The warmer look appears legit if the larger scale features are correct...we get some lower heights across AK while we lose the -NAO...that will flatten everything and give us a zonal milder look. It does appear the hemispheric pattern is about to reload the EPO though...so it would probably get better extrapolating out.

Well that is good afterall last year we relied on the negative EPO to get through not some negative NAO and negative AO. 

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Damn that a pretty awesome Turkey day week for CNE NNE, folks looking through the forest when there is a tree you are about to run into. EPS has rolled back and forth in the 11-15, don't worry about. Remember 2 days ago we were told nothing but rain yet many in CT MA NH VT Me. are or have snowed today

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12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Damn that a pretty awesome Turkey day week for CNE NNE, folks looking through the forest when there is a tree you are about to run into. EPS has rolled back and forth in the 11-15, don't worry about. Remember 2 days ago we were told nothing but rain yet many in CT MA NH VT Me. are or have snowed today

Okay. Not panicking just wondering if it’s an AN look or just warmer than previously depicted. 

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Damn that a pretty awesome Turkey day week for CNE NNE, folks looking through the forest when there is a tree you are about to run into. EPS has rolled back and forth in the 11-15, don't worry about. Remember 2 days ago we were told nothing but rain yet many in CT MA NH VT Me. are or have snowed today

I like the GEFS look way more for T-day than the EPS...EPS is pretty far NE with the ULL so it prob is pretty much dry for everyone except potentially a little upslope in the upslope zones. But plenty of time for changes and details to emerge.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I like the GEFS look way more for T-day than the EPS...EPS is pretty far NE with the ULL so it prob is pretty much dry for everyone except potentially a little upslope in the upslope zones. But plenty of time for changes and details to emerge.

Big red caution sign on that EPS run 150 to 200m height changes from 12 hrs ago. I'd wait for some consistency. EPS has struggled 11-15 in this pattern

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like the GEFS look way more for T-day than the EPS...EPS is pretty far NE with the ULL so it prob is pretty much dry for everyone except potentially a little upslope in the upslope zones. But plenty of time for changes and details to emerge.

 

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Big red caution sign on that EPS run 150 to 200m height changes from 12 hrs ago. I'd wait for some consistency. EPS has struggled 11-15 in this pattern

I’m glad to hear this.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies basically as we have been saying. The -NAO goes bye bye, but the EPAC looks better. Of course we know how week 4 goes, but that would be a favorable EPAC look. 

Yeah looks like reload during week 3...so our mild spell prob wouldn't last all that long if it played out like that...but we know the caveats of week 3/4. Esp week 4.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah looks like reload during week 3...so our mild spell prob wouldn't last all that long if it played out like that...but we know the caveats of week 3/4. Esp week 4.

Sorry to harp on this, just trying to get a clear thought. How mild we thinking? And is that before Thanksgiving?

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Just now, LurkerBoy said:

Sorry to harp on this, just trying to get a clear thought. How mild we thinking? And is that before Thanksgiving?

No it would be after T-day when we relax for a week or so...and I have no idea on the details, it is too far out. You're also in the NYC area...so it could be like 10-15F warmer there than many posters here when we put out numbers.

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Break out the mai tais with those little umbrellas.

 

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You guys have Lurkerboy's head on a swivel..............:lol:

 

6 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

He is setting himself up perfectly lol

Yeah it’s pretty annoying to be treated like an idiot/child but I’m aware of the fact that ribbing one another is part of the AmWx culture. Just trying to learn. 

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8 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

 

 

Yeah it’s pretty annoying to be treated like an idiot/child but I’m aware of the fact that ribbing one another is part of the AmWx culture. Just trying to learn. 

We joke but “how mild” is not learning much...its obsessing over details so far out which is pointless. It’s like asking “how much for Philliy” off a CMC day 7 printout.

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45 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

 

 

Yeah it’s pretty annoying to be treated like an idiot/child but I’m aware of the fact that ribbing one another is part of the AmWx culture. Just trying to learn. 

Well hey dude.. no offense please.. but you named yourself Lurkerboy. Many of us thought you were under 10. Generally your screen name symbolizes who you are 

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1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said:

Sorry to harp on this, just trying to get a clear thought. How mild we thinking? And is that before Thanksgiving?

Our high temps avgs are dropping in the upper 40s/low 50s (NYC) so 10F above avg would feel good. Anyways it's November. Its hard to get to snow in NYC, gotta wait till December. In other words don't worry so much about temps and enjoy it. Sorry for the intrusion guys.

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