RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Talking about uncertainty is nausiating, it’s stating the obvious. We are better than that. I like what Tip is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Talking about uncertainty is nausiating, it’s stating the obvious. We are better than that. I like what Tip is saying. It's not always built the same though. All forecasts are uncertain to some extent, but some uncertainty is inherently more uncertain. For instance, model predictability (and therefore forecast confidence) goes up when the North Pacific jet is extended and/or displaced poleward. The opposite is true for retracted and/or equatorward jets. What's the old weenie complaint, that warm spells always seem to verify in the winter but cold always disappears as we get closer? Well there's part of the reason. An extended/poleward jet in the Pacific torches Canada and we verify warm, and it is usually more predictable. The retracted/equatorward jets can often feature northern latitude ridging and cold outbreaks into the CONUS, but they also come with a greater degree of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's not always built the same though. All forecasts are uncertain to some extent, but some uncertainty is inherently more uncertain. For instance, model predictability (and therefore forecast confidence) goes up when the North Pacific jet is extended and/or displaced poleward. The opposite is true for retracted and/or equatorward jets. What's the old weenie complaint, that warm spells always seem to verify in the winter but cold always disappears as we get closer? Well there's part of the reason. An extended/poleward jet in the Pacific torches Canada and we verify warm, and it is usually more predictable. The retracted/equatorward jets can often feature northern latitude ridging and cold outbreaks into the CONUS, but they also come with a greater degree of uncertainty. Right, the difference between 60 and 65 isn’t a big deal compared to 30 and 35, which is the difference between snow and rain. There’s much more room for error with warmth...same goes true for cutters. Getting cold and snow is not as easy, especially the further south you go and earlier and later in the cold season, most understand this. Forecasts aren’t certain 6-12 hours out, trust me I lived through Jan 15 nowcast bust lol. So yea, the level of certainy increases and decreases with time and model consensus but people like to throw the uncertainy word around as to protect themselves from emotional or professional failure. Uncertainy is obvious, so let’s get past that and figure sh*t out as best we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 46 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Talking about uncertainty is nausiating, it’s stating the obvious. We are better than that. I like what Tip is saying. Berg, of course it's obvious, I too like what Tip said..stated so in my post. But we don't know how negative that NAO really goes..and how what or which shortwave will behave. So that is pretty uncertain at this point. So at the risk of sounding uncertain..it is exactly that at this juncture. 3 or 4 days from now perhaps it won't be.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 29 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's not always built the same though. All forecasts are uncertain to some extent, but some uncertainty is inherently more uncertain. For instance, model predictability (and therefore forecast confidence) goes up when the North Pacific jet is extended and/or displaced poleward. The opposite is true for retracted and/or equatorward jets. What's the old weenie complaint, that warm spells always seem to verify in the winter but cold always disappears as we get closer? Well there's part of the reason. An extended/poleward jet in the Pacific torches Canada and we verify warm, and it is usually more predictable. The retracted/equatorward jets can often feature northern latitude ridging and cold outbreaks into the CONUS, but they also come with a greater degree of uncertainty. That's a good example. Nice one. I think it's great to talk about uncertainty, and the hows an whys it's occurring. It gives everyone a window into what meteorologists deal with every day, and a window into our whole decision process. I know weenies only want to hear certainties, but I think talking about the uncertainties can be an educational thing. If people understand what we are dealing with...I think it can be a nice learning experience. That's what I try to do anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 The NAO isn't everything. Strength does help, but you need to know the position of the block. You then need to think about the correlations and how they may be different early in the season when wavelengths are still short. You then need to think about how sharp the s/w in question is. So graphics are nice, but sometimes it's tough to visualize with those plume diagrams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a good example. Nice one. I think it's great to talk about uncertainty, and the hows an whys it's occurring. It gives everyone a window into what meteorologists deal with every day, and a window into our whole decision process. I know weenies only want to hear certainties, but I think talking about the uncertainties can be an educational thing. If people understand what we are dealing with...I think it can be a nice learning experience. That's what I try to do anyways. Yes but those who understand the uncertainities of weather and forecasting get nothing out of someone saying “yea the LR looks good but it’s uncertain” lol. Thanks captain obvious.That’s all I’m saying. I was not referring to the fact that we should talk in absolutes and lock up forecasts by any stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: That's a good example. Nice one. I think it's great to talk about uncertainty, and the hows an whys it's occurring. It gives everyone a window into what meteorologists deal with every day, and a window into our whole decision process. I know weenies only want to hear certainties, but I think talking about the uncertainties can be an educational thing. If people understand what we are dealing with...I think it can be a nice learning experience. That's what I try to do anyways. It's where all the research is focused nowadays it seems. Ensemble sensitivity, Pac jet phase diagrams, fuzzy clustering, etc., all aimed at figuring out where the uncertainty in the pattern is originating from. For a real weather weenie I think it's fascinating. Also, lo and behold where we are at in the phase diagram right now: Equatorward shift, and headed for retraction. Scooter caution flags? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's where all the research is focused nowadays it seems. Ensemble sensitivity, Pac jet phase diagrams, fuzzy clustering, etc., all aimed at figuring out where the uncertainty in the pattern is originating from. For a real weather weenie I think it's fascinating. Also, lo and behold where we are at in the phase diagram right now: Equatorward shift, and headed for retraction. Scooter caution flags? I glanced by that, is this on the Albany site? That's pretty neat. We are definitely heading in that directon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I glanced by that, is this on the Albany site? That's pretty neat. We are definitely heading in that directon. Yeah Albany definitely has it, and I thought I heard a presentation say that WPC or CPC is tracking it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yes but those who understand the uncertainities of weather and forecasting get nothing out of someone saying “yea the LR looks good but it’s uncertain” lol. Thanks captain obvious.That’s all I’m saying. I was not referring to the fact that we should talk in absolutes and lock up forecasts by any stretch. OK, but why? That's when people should back it up with text or graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Some light Sunday reading if people are curious: https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps/Presentations 2017/08 NGGPS17_PImeeting_Bosart.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: OK, but why? That's when people should back it up with text or graphics. Yes..this. saying things(and meaning them) like snowy, and white thanksgiving, and several winter threats...from an ensemble run that is 11days out, and believing that is what is going to transpire..is nothing short of ridiculous. Nothing wrong with saying the long range looks good/great..and being excited about the possibilities or potential..I'm just as excited about what Could happen if things line up too. But the Caveats always need to apply. Also on the other end of the Spectrum are the Debbie's...and that's just as bad as well. And then finally the Flip floppers..who waver with each run of The modeling. I thought Tips post was excellent, also OceanStWx was great as well..puts it in the proper perspective...which is what this discussion is really about anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 The 12z GFS trended pretty sharp with the s/w for next weekend. As a result, looks a bit more like the euro. Still far out in la la land as far as specifics go, but that's one of the three things to watch if you live in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Is there a suggested tool to use to determine how the LR looks without annoyingly posting in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Talking about uncertainty is nausiating, it’s stating the obvious. We are better than that. I like what Tip is saying. Ah haha it's okay - my feelings won't be hurt if you had just left that as 'stating the obvious' - no need for diplomacy there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 The modeling is interesting tomorrow. The RGEM even has a tiny bit of ice in interior NJ and adjacent PA early tomorrow morning. Although it warms a bit at 925..it would not shock me if some inland spots have some sort of light mixed precip or flakes tomorrow. I think best chance may be nrn ORH county area? Maybe a second chance Tuesday as it cools a bit aloft. Nothing really special..but the time of year garnishes a little more attn than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah haha it's okay - my feelings won't be hurt if you had just left that as 'stating the obvious' - no need for diplomacy there. I think he was meaning me..because I used the term Uncertainty, not you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Just now, WinterWolf said: I think he was meaning me..because I used the term Uncertainty, not you. oh ... heh. probably should comment on anything after the fact; my attention is too divided Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The modeling is interesting tomorrow. The RGEM even has a tiny bit of ice in interior NE and adjacent PA early tomorrow morning. Although it warms a bit at 925..it would not shock me if some inland spots have some sort of light mixed precip or flakes tomorrow. I think best chance may be nrn ORH county area? Maybe a second chance Tuesday as it cools a bit aloft. Nothing really special..but the time of year garnishes a little more attn than normal. It could be sneaky nasty. Saturation is forecast to be piss poor in the DGZ up in the GYX CWA. So if we stay below freezing there could be some FZDZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The modeling is interesting tomorrow. The RGEM even has a tiny bit of ice in interior NE and adjacent PA early tomorrow morning. Although it warms a bit at 925..it would not shock me if some inland spots have some sort of light mixed precip or flakes tomorrow. I think best chance may be nrn ORH county area? Maybe a second chance Tuesday as it cools a bit aloft. Nothing really special..but the time of year garnishes a little more attn than normal. Ha! ...was wonderin' when someone might take a look at this 'little critter' we've had a comment or two on it here and there over the last few pages... but understandably, people are more focused on bigger ticket items - or looking for them.. anyway, the NAM's ongoing infuriating frustrations know no bounds ...agreed, however, somewhere lurking in the fuzzy distribution of it's turd-to-wall guess work, there is a pattern of consistency nonetheless, for SOMEthing to sweep through. Plus, radar in the southern Lakes...etc.. anyway, now up close to .5" @ Logan. That +3 C in the BL, with at or < than 0C above, is the correct thermal slope for intensity to drill parachutes to the surface, ...and west of the city you'd have to figure it's colder yet. So, anyway... we're also sort of rusty at this (I thnk..) I mean... perhaps the NAM or RGEM or whatever sees this, but the DP is like -5 to +5 F right now... That may feedback a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It could be sneaky nasty. Saturation is forecast to be piss poor in the DGZ up in the GYX CWA. So if we stay below freezing there could be some FZDZ. 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha! ...was wonderin' when someone might take a look at this 'little critter' we've had a comment or two on it here and there over the last few pages... but understandably, people are more focused on bigger ticket items - or looking for them.. anyway, the NAM's ongoing infuriating frustrations know no bounds ...agreed, however, somewhere lurking in the fuzzy distribution of it's turd-to-wall guess work, there is a pattern of consistency nonetheless, for SOMEthing to sweep through. Plus, radar in the southern Lakes...etc.. anyway, now up close to .5" @ Logan. That +3 C in the BL, with at or < than 0C above, is the correct thermal slope for intensity to drill parachutes to the surface, ...and west of the city you'd have to figure it's colder yet. So, anyway... we're also sort of rusty at this (I thnk..) I mean... perhaps the NAM or RGEM or whatever sees this, but the DP is like -5 to +5 F right now... That may feedback a little. Sorry I meant NJ, not NE in my earlier post. Anyways, something to watch. You could almost envision some more precip in the deformation area sliding just north across VT/NH/ME. And then maybe some sneaky stuff to the south over the interior. It's too bad it wasn't a month or so later. That is a nice inv trough look that would dump some snow just on the cold side across ern/SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sorry I meant NJ, not NE in my earlier post. Anyways, something to watch. You could almost envision some more precip in the deformation area sliding just north across VT/NH/ME. And then maybe some sneaky stuff to the south over the interior. It's too bad it wasn't a month or so later. That is a nice inv trough look that would dump some snow just on the cold side across ern/SE MA. I was thinking norlun-ie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sorry I meant NJ, not NE in my earlier post. Anyways, something to watch. You could almost envision some more precip in the deformation area sliding just north across VT/NH/ME. And then maybe some sneaky stuff to the south over the interior. It's too bad it wasn't a month or so later. That is a nice inv trough look that would dump some snow just on the cold side across ern/SE MA. I’ve been musing for days on whether or not I see a flake or 2. Back to work tomorrow-not sure how long a day I can tolerate but it’s seen a harrowing week. Immediately post op my wife was told that I was a goner. I knew it was hype and the path report came back completely benign but up until I found out I was contemplating on this being my last winter... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 So glad Jerry everything is clear! You have many more winters left pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’ve been musing for days on whether or not I see a flake or 2. Back to work tomorrow-not sure how long a day I can tolerate but it’s seen a harrowing week. Immediately post op my wife was told that I was a goner. I knew it was hype and the path report came back completely benign but up until I found out I was contemplating on this being my last winter... . what the hell happened Jerry - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah haha it's okay - my feelings won't be hurt if you had just left that as 'stating the obvious' - no need for diplomacy there. That part had zero to do with you. I’ll let you when I get mad at you this winter, no diplomacy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So glad Jerry everything is clear! You have many more winters left pal. Thank you! 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: what the hell happened Jerry - Long story but condensed version is I discovered a lump in my facial area that turned out to be a benign tumor that clinically resembled a malignancy. Thankfully the clinical impression bows to the pathology report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 52 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think he was meaning me..because I used the term Uncertainty, not you. It didn’t have much to do with you either. It’s the collective debbie thinking of “wake me up when I am in the middle of a 2’ blizzard before I believe anything” that kills good discussion and fun times. I’m Just not the type to waste time reading and posting content that doesnt improve my knowledge and/or have tons of fun in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 00z EPS looking pretty baggy next weekend, and developed a nice little cluster of lows tracking from ORE to RKD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.