OceanStWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Models are pretty warm Sat in the SW flow ahead of that trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Nice what happens on the 11-15 day EPS Euro Ensemble model?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Nice what happens on the 11-15 day EPS Euro Ensemble model?. Have your binkini ironed and on your dresser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Have your binkini ironed and on your dresser. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 23 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Nice what happens on the 11-15 day EPS Euro Ensemble model?. Well with some NAO what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Really? For him, sure. Everyone else enjoy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That'd be a very excellent pattern for the Southeast if we're in January. We'll have to see if that Great Lakes low will end up tracking further south and east to follow that upper air pattern, as DT himself stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: For him, sure. Everyone else enjoy winter. Lol...winter is over before it started for that guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: For him, sure. Everyone else enjoy winter. 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Well with some NAO what do you think? So confused? Sarcasm sux for laymen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: So confused? Sarcasm sux for laymen. Winter is here, we enjoy. I wouldn’t sweat any fluctuations in individual ens runs. It is still more good than bad, whats happens in 20 days who knows....but it will moderate. No one with a brain in SNE expects -5C with snow overhead for 4 months straight. Leo just worries, all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Leo, my earlier post had nothing to do with the ensemble. It was beyond that. The models continue to swing back to more Nina so I expect some fluctuations. I would not be surprised if we trend a little warmer....but I do not see anything alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Models are pretty warm Sat in the SW flow ahead of that trof. Jerry said weekend then Tday week I was confused, yea prefrontal warm up Friday night Sat then boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Leo, my earlier post had nothing to do with the ensemble. It was beyond that. The models continue to swing back to more Nina so I expect some fluctuations. I would not be surprised if we trend a little warmer....but I do not see anything alarming. He’s gonna read this post as winters over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Friday Jerry said weekend I was confused Your post and I don’t disagree. I said big cold stab heading into Thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Friday Jerry said weekend I was confused BOX going pretty widespread 50s for highs Saturday. Definitely not a day to tan the nape, but it could get just above normal before that front blasts through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Leo, my earlier post had nothing to do with the ensemble. It was beyond that. The models continue to swing back to more Nina so I expect some fluctuations. I would not be surprised if we trend a little warmer....but I do not see anything alarming. Oh o, they worry now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: He’s gonna read this post as winters over. It's amazing. This forum would make a good mental experiment. People read what they want to read. I'm just being honest with my posts. It's not always gonna be cold and snow. That's not how it works near our latitude early in the season. I think we will see more dateline ridging, troughing in NW Canada, and nao breaking down heading into December. Wild card would be if we can keep the SW U.S. In some ridging. This would keep Pacific puke away and keep a cooler pattern. I also mentioned the MJO with another wave maybe making the rounds? But dam, folks really need to keep the time of year in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's amazing. This forum would make a good mental experiment. People read what they want to read. I'm just being honest with my posts. It's not always gonna be cold and snow. That's not how it works near our latitude early in the season. I think we will see more dateline ridging, troughing in NW Canada, and nao breaking down heading into December. Wild card would be if we can keep the SW U.S. In some ridging. This would keep Pacific puke away and keep a cooler pattern. I also mentioned the MJO with another wave maybe making the rounds? But dam, folks really need to keep the time of year in mind. Stop being a debbie. And it used to when our great grandfathers were young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 hour ago, WxBlue said: That'd be a very excellent pattern for the Southeast if we're in January. We'll have to see if that Great Lakes low will end up tracking further south and east to follow that upper air pattern, as DT himself stated. The southeast up until like January 5 is like NYC til 12/5 or so. It's insanely hard to get a major winter weather even in places like BNA ATL CLT before then. There are only a handful of snow events in December at any of those stations surprisingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The southeast up until like January 5 is like NYC til 12/5 or so. It's insanely hard to get a major winter weather even in places like BNA ATL CLT before then. There are only a handful of snow events in December at any of those stations surprisingly Living in NC for a decade, we only scored in December once that I can remember... 12/26/2010. The cold source that isn't too dry is simply not available for a good winter weather until January, even if you get -NAO, -AO, +PNA, and the 50/50 low in the right location. Now... I wonder if this is a great pattern for the Northeast in late November simply because everything is further north (especially the cold and the storm track). That's a different story and the one I'm not yet familiar with. Probably still too early here, but we'll have to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 I might have picked a good week to finish my time in Boston. Sit back and track...... Meanwhile, looking down at the snow covered peaks of the Sierra Nevadas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Stop being a debbie. And it used to when our great grandfathers were young. Everyone seems to be hearing anecdotals of snow up to the willy before T-Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Next weekend could easily triple point over SNE too. I am not sold on a massive temp spike for now. Even if it did, hopefully it minimizes the damage to our epic snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Everyone seems to be hearing anecdotals of snow up to the willy before T-Day. I really remember just 2002 when the football game was played on a snowy field from the night before. Obviously 1989 was good too for RI, but I don't have specific memories of that one. Then up here we got slammed pretty good in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Next weekend could easily triple point over SNE too. I am not sold on a massive temp spike for now. Even if it did, hopefully it minimizes the damage to our epic snowpack. I'm leaning better chance of cooling than warming at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: I really remember just 2002 when the football game was played on a snowy field from the night before. Obviously 1989 was good too for RI, but I don't have specific memories of that one. Then up here we got slammed pretty good in 2011. Thanksgiving 2002 was a bit of a toaster bath in my hood in Marshfield. I did get an inch or so at the end, but 5 miles west had like 5-6" In fact that winter until Feb was sort of tough on the coast. Then we disrobed in Feb into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 This November is so 1995esque as it evolves. Same day for first freeze at BOS also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Thanksgiving 2002 was a bit of a toaster bath in my hood in Marshfield. I did get an inch or so at the end, but 5 miles west had like 5-6" In fact that winter until Feb was sort of tough on the coast. Then we disrobed in Feb into early March. Year after I graduated, so I didn't get to enjoy playing in those conditions. But PVD had 5.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: This November is so 1995esque as it evolves. Same day for first freeze at BOS also. You hush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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