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Fall 2017 Model Mehham

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

NAM trying to pull some shenanigans. Could it be the first on the sauce like the little event earlier this week?

It actually did better than the other guidance on that. They were flatter. NAM had that 72 hours in aDVance and trIed to stick with it came up and gave measurable

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LoveSN+

LoveSN+

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It actually did better than the other guidance on that. They were flatter. NAM had that 72 hours in aDVance and trIed to stick with it came up and gave measurable

This system is shaping up to look fairly similar, at least in terms of what the NAM is showing. Interesting at least.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
On 11/9/2017 at 6:04 PM, mreaves said:

I would take it too. I don’t have the same level of record keeping that you guys do (well, any record keeping at all if we’re being honest) but 81-82 is the one that I pattern all my dream winters on.  Seemingly endless snowfall. A couple of 3”-6”ers a week and then a bigger one every 10 days or so, or so it seemed to my then 13 year old eyes. I don’t remember any really big warmups and the road that I lived on at the time, VT RT14 in Brookfield was closed due to snow slides. It was a great winter up here. 

with a historic blizzard to end things with a bang in April 1982.  That's an extremely underrated winter.  January was very cold and snowy too.

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Modfan

Modfan

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Paragon said:

with a historic blizzard to end things with a bang in April 1982.  That's an extremely underrated winter.  January was very cold and snowy too.

If I remember correctly I believe Christmas that year was very cold; I remember trying out my new sled and how cold it was sledding. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
Just now, Modfan said:

If I remember correctly I believe Christmas that year was very cold; I remember trying out my new sled and how cold it was sledding. 

There was a string of very cold Decembers and Januarys in the 80s.  Christmas 1980 was the last time in December that NYC was below 0 (-1) and Boston was -8.

1981-82 very cold December, January and the first half of April lol.

1983-84 very cold la nina after el nino

January 1985 super arctic outbreak around the inauguration. -2 in NYC -15 down in DC area

December 1989 more than 10 degrees below normal for the whole month (but dry) after the Thanksgiving snowstorm.

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I feel like we may see the MJO round the phases again maybe in early December? That could help boost the chances of maybe an early start to snow. Of course that's sticking my neck out..but something I am noticing. I think having this more east based allows for waves to propagate east at least to the dateline. Whereas a west based event with its cold water and easterlies would keep the waves at bay way in the maritime continent. Who knows..some of this is voodoo...but we should keep an eye on that. 

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like we may see the MJO round the phases again maybe in early December? That could help boost the chances of maybe an early start to snow. Of course that's sticking my neck out..but something I am noticing. I think having this more east based allows for waves to propagate east at least to the dateline. Whereas a west based event with its cold water and easterlies would keep the waves at bay way in the maritime continent. Who knows..some of this is voodoo...but we should keep an eye on that. 

Scott. That's the phase 8-1 stuff that's good for cold and storms in the east right?  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Paragon said:

with a historic blizzard to end things with a bang in April 1982.  That's an extremely underrated winter.  January was very cold and snowy too.

I wasn't around this part of the country then .. but in the southern Lakes region it was either that winter, or the one right before ... was no slouch. 

We had a couple delayed school starts that winter due to cold - bone rattling cold at that, with temps in the -5 to -10 F, along with wind over 20mph on multiple mornings. 

LE -related snow warnings were common, and one Blizzard if I recall. Thing is, I don't recall any synoptic storms of notoriety.  But what we had were a lot of those intense cold waves, where the LE sounding became more "fuzzy" ..instead of the corpuscular cells amid linear focus that is more convective. The whole region within 40 to 70 mi east of Lake Michigan, on several occasions, at times bathed in level 1 radar, as the air bounced around + 4 F in what really amounted to snow-fog.  It was really interesting because at the time the movie, "The Shining" was popular; I distinctly recall the entire setting reminded me often of that end scene where the axe-wielding "Jack" met his cryospheric doom out amid the bush-maze; utterly submerged in sting cold and dense if not choking pixie dust.  

I've often wondered where that winter ranks for Lakes region.  Back in 2013-2014, there was the "Polar Vortex" winter ...  I've never bothered to actually look up the numbers. It may just be that winter happens to stick out in my mind ..but, it was the most impressive thing I remember between that era and 1977-1978 ...

The 1980s were on whole a disappointing decade ...  Obviously not the whole time.. There were off-set events. But they were more in handful as opposed to the medley we encountered around here after about 1991 ... 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Scott. That's the phase 8-1 stuff that's good for cold and storms in the east right?  

Yeah. It's a weak signal, but the fact that its on there could be of value. I guess we shall see. It does seem like overall the forcing will shift west and probably help force a dateline ridge.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, LoveSN+ said:

This system is shaping up to look fairly similar, at least in terms of what the NAM is showing. Interesting at least.

yeah... and it's also similar in that it's now survived two additional model cycles and so tentative consistency -

fwiw, the last three cycles of the GFS have ticked in favor of a saturated column ...indicating steadily increasing chance of at least light measurable  - hey, it's something.

the thing is, in either case, ..we'd be fighting a marginal sounding. the 'as is' look of either: the NAM would probably bring fat rain drops and cat paws, with soaked cotton balls to the elevations; whereas the GFS would give that pre-noreaster look to the sky but fails to do more than chilly sprinkles. 

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wasn't around this part of the country then .. but in the southern Lakes region it was either that winter, or the one right before ... was no slouch. 

We had a couple delayed school starts that winter due to cold - bone rattling cold at that, with temps in the -5 to -10 F, along with wind over 20mph on multiple mornings. 

LE -related snow warnings were common, and one Blizzard if I recall. Thing is, I don't recall any synoptic storms of notoriety.  But what we had were a lot of those intense cold waves, where the LE sounding became more "fuzzy" ..instead of the corpuscular cells amid linear focus that is more convective. The whole region within 40 to 70 mi east of Lake Michigan, on several occasions, at times bathed in level 1 radar, as the air bounced around + 4 F in what really amounted to snow-fog.  It was really interesting because at the time the movie, "The Shining" was popular; I distinctly recall the entire setting reminded me often of that end scene where the axe-wielding "Jack" met his cryospheric doom out amid the bush-maze; utterly submerged in sting cold and dense if not choking pixie dust.  

I've often wondered where that winter ranks for Lakes region.  Back in 2013-2014, there was the "Polar Vortex" winter ...  I've never bothered to actually look up the numbers. It may just be that winter happens to stick out in my mind ..but, it was the most impressive thing I remember between that era and 1977-1978 ...

The 1980s were on whole a disappointing decade ...  Obviously not the whole time.. There were off-set events. But they were more in handful as opposed to the medley we encountered around here after about 1991 ... 

Yes indeed.  The 80s had characteristics of +NAO winters, cold air and precip events were not timed properly.  It was cold and dry or warm and wet.

2013-14 and 2014-15 really stand out as a couple of -EPO driven winters, February 2015 may be the most amazing winter month I have ever experienced.  And I wasn't even in the bullseye of any of the storms- but it felt and looked like the Arctic out there.  We even had star-like glittering snow needles falling from crystal clear skies- a truly Arctic phenomenon!  February 2015 had anomalous cold on the level of December 1989- but with snow, which is what 12/89 lacked.  Only other month I can compare it to is January 2004, but on steroids.  January 1994 was pretty good too, but the short warm ups made it seem less extreme as a whole.  Although that was the month that supposedly had our last great (2 SD) nationwide Arctic shot.  And the only time I can remember where NYC got to zero or below from two separate outbreaks!

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Tip,

 The 2013-2014 winter was pretty incredible in the lakes. It ended up as the coldest winter on record in several locations and in others it fell just short of 1978-1979. Even in Duluth, where records go back to the late 1860s, it went down as the 2nd coldest winter on record only topped by 1874-1875...by a mere 0.1F for the 3 month average. 

 

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LoveSN+

LoveSN+

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... and it's also similar in that it's now survived two additional model cycles and so tentative consistency -

fwiw, the last three cycles of the GFS have ticked in favor of a saturated column ...indicating steadily increasing chance of at least light measurable  - hey, it's something.

the thing is, in either case, ..we'd be fighting a marginal sounding. the 'as is' look of either: the NAM would probably bring fat rain drops and cat paws, with soaked cotton balls to the elevations; whereas the GFS would give that pre-noreaster look to the sky but fails to do more than chilly sprinkles. 

 

NAM comes in even more juiced this morning.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tip,

 The 2013-2014 winter was pretty incredible in the lakes. It ended up as the coldest winter on record in several locations and in others it fell just short of 1978-1979. Even in Duluth, where records go back to the late 1860s, it went down as the 2nd coldest winter on record only topped by 1874-1875...by a mere 0.1F for the 3 month average. 

 

yeah i figured you'd know :)  somebody other than myself.

... i think it may have been '80-'81 that i remember.. but not sure.  one of those two..  

i also figured 2013-2014 that beats that out, right. 

i think of that fabled winter of my childhood as being your standard run of the mill Midwest/Lakes region harsh winter and probably not out of control (or as much as) the likes of a 2013-2014... that's a top 3 existential lock-down event.  

but i had a paper route back in 1981 or '82 - yeah...heh - and i recall the Sunday morning addition; delivery start-time was 7:45 am.  the later dawn occurred with no sun, but 0 F air with as describe, snow fog moving sideways at times downing the visibility to 1/3 of a mile or so.  windy too, with enough gust power to white noise through the trees and roof tops.  the longest stretch of my route was down a street where the wind blew parallel - unreal.  i remember at one point i just started laughing ... cheeks ..fingers, toes and all numbed to the brink. it was like indescribable.  

obviously there are winters worse than that... but, my personal 'experience' and 'exposure' (as far as sensible impact alone) ranks perhaps that moment as top - ... had to be out in it

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leo2000

leo2000

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. It's a weak signal, but the fact that its on there could be of value. I guess we shall see. It does seem like overall the forcing will shift west and probably help force a dateline ridge.

According to Todd Crawford from Twitter he says 

 
 
  1.  

    Big warmer jump in overnight ECM EPS for eastern US late Tgiving weekend via @WxCoEnergy gas-weighted time series. If true, would this be brief moderation or end of cold pattern? ( All credit goes to Todd Crawford). 

    DOW8yjHX4AAmLEW.jpg
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