leo2000 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 21 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: He averages 110 lol. Perhaps he and I can break out the sunscreen and bask in the maritime warmth of the strong -nao blocking he desperately wanted. Lol, it's not the negative NAO of course it's the negative -A0 that I am cheering for. But one usually always follows the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They looked fine to me. Oh Michael Ventrice from Twitter said week 3 didn't look so good showing some warm air up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Push this south. Remember the good old days of two weeks ago when he was all "TORCH" and "this winter will be a ratter," now it's all deep, deep winter and feet for WST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 1 minute ago, leo2000 said: Oh Michael Ventrice from Twitter said they didn't look so good showing some warm air up the east coast. I think it was more the difference from the last run, which was a little warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's a decent s/w on the euro, but little in the way of a srfc response it seems. I do wonder if it can cause some precip a little more widespread than shown. Pretty strong signal on the 00z EPS too. It's about the strongest feature of the next 10 days anyway. Nothing out of the ordinary jumping out of the pattern before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Remember the good old days of two weeks ago when he was all "TORCH" and "this winter will be a ratter," now it's all deep, deep winter and feet for WST. As the wind blows... 2 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Oh Michael Ventrice from Twitter said week 3 didn't look so good showing some warm air up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: As the wind blows... Legro def is the most bothered poster by my posts here . Deep winter is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 That is a cold azz honky Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Cold run and that look at D10 and what it would entail afterwards is nice. Favorable EPO, pumping the PNA, good NAO ie not on roids. While it’s not disrobing material yet...it’s the precursor with drinking games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Track that s/w a little further south and pop that secondary around the 19th under SNE and we will have some fun, That 18-24th period could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cold run and that look at D10 and what it would entail afterwards is nice. Favorable EPO, pumping the PNA, good NAO ie not on roids. While it’s not disrobing material yet...it’s the precursor with drinking games. That's an example of an airmass we can work with. Not the 534-540 thickness stuff that would struggle in a lot of areas below 1000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's an example of an airmass we can work with. Not the 534-540 thickness stuff that would struggle in a lot of areas below 1000ft. I'm heading to BUF Thanksgiving week. I feel like we picked a good time to go from the looks of things depending on your point of view lol. Not sure the gf would agree. The nao block is just too strong to be favorable for Newfoundland this time of year when cold anomalies are most important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Legro def is the most bothered poster by my posts here . Deep winter is here You've done a complete 180 degree switch in like 5 days... can't expect folks not to notice and rib ya on it a bit lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's an example of an airmass we can work with. Not the 534-540 thickness stuff that would struggle in a lot of areas below 1000ft. Slow down there tiger. I haven’t finished the critical thickness chapter in my Becoming a Pro Met textbook yet. What do we need this time of year below 1k feet, DIT you are safe, to produce snow....522-528 at the very least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Slow down there tiger. I haven’t finished the critical thickness chapter in my Becoming a Pro Met textbook yet. What do we need this time of year below 1k feet, DIT you are safe, to produce snow....522-528 at the very least? There isn't some sort of textbook rule...I was more speaking to the fact that the 12z euro had some nice cold air..not the marginal stuff that can happen this time of year, especially with a block trying to recycle a borderline atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Slow down there tiger. I haven’t finished the critical thickness chapter in my Becoming a Pro Met textbook yet. What do we need this time of year below 1k feet, DIT you are safe, to produce snow....522-528 at the very least? Well it would depend on the sounding. In a lot of SWFE the thicknesses are quite high because of warmth aloft but it's snowing at 22F right to the ocean with low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Well it would depend on the sounding. In a lot of SWFE the thicknesses are quite high because of warmth aloft but it's snowing at 22F right to the ocean with low level cold. Yeah I did not want to confuse him..lol, but in general you probably want the lower levels quite cold..esp on the coast. I think in the big veteran's day 87 storm it was like -4C at 925 or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There isn't some sort of textbook rule...I was more speaking to the fact that the 12z euro had some nice cold air..not the marginal stuff that can happen this time of year, especially with a block trying to recycle a borderline atmosphere. Right, recycling 540 wouldn’t cut it. Gotchya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 That air mass is no good once it goes over hazeys head and comes back, Just check with CAR in 2010 when we had the retro cluster fuk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: That air mass is no good once it goes over hazeys head and comes back, Just check with CAR in 2010 when we had the retro cluster fuk. If cold enough it could...I don't mean to speak that we can't get anything...but I usually like to see a bit more of a colder atmosphere this time of year. Especially in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I did not want to confuse him..lol, but in general you probably want the lower levels quite cold..esp on the coast. I think in the big veteran's day 87 storm it was like -4C at 925 or something like that. Nah. I have my learning sites I go to. This weenie grows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nah. I have my learning sites I go to. This weenie grows. Always feel free to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: That air mass is no good once it goes over hazeys head and comes back, Just check with CAR in 2010 when we had the retro cluster fuk. Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If cold enough it could...I don't mean to speak that we can't get anything...but I usually like to see a bit more of a colder atmosphere this time of year. Especially in my hood. Sure it could, But this time of year with it being marginal, It would be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Torch November? Nope. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 5 hours ago, Lava Rock said: I've never done this. I do all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 Official first freeze KBOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 That air mass is no good once it goes over hazeys head and comes back, Just check with CAR in 2010 when we had the retro cluster fuk.Yeah that's no Bueno. That's as bad as it gets. Even the few folks in northern Labrador traded in their skidoos for irocs and take tops that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 It's really rather remarkable. These teleconnectors could not be more saddled with suggestion for bigger atmospheric events, yet ... it's baffling watching run after run after run of these operational models almost more than figuratively going out of their way to tamp down anything from happening at all. I really wonder why that is.. I've noticed this pattern: as soon as they get close, the next run tries to even go zonal of all diametric bird flips - I don't get see the EPS derived teleconnectors - if fact, I wonder if the ECMWF folk even calculate those indexes based upon the EPS cluster at all. Obviously...we can look at those geographical regions and get a sense of what they are. Still, it would be nice to see an actually f'n EPO number based on the g-damn EPS. C-suckers! The beauty of it? It doesn't matter - the GEFs derived numbers are not terrible performing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 NAM trying to pull some shenanigans. Could it be the first on the sauce like the little event earlier this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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