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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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21 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

He averages 110 lol.  

Perhaps he and I can break out the sunscreen and bask in the maritime warmth of the strong -nao blocking he desperately wanted.  

Lol, it's not the negative NAO of course it's the negative -A0 that I am cheering for. But one usually always follows the other. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a decent s/w on the euro, but little in the way of a srfc response it seems. I do wonder if it can cause some precip a little more widespread than shown. 

Pretty strong signal on the 00z EPS too. It's about the strongest feature of the next 10 days anyway. Nothing out of the ordinary jumping out of the pattern before that.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Remember the good old days of two weeks ago when he was all "TORCH" and "this winter will be a ratter," now it's all deep, deep winter and feet for WST.

As the wind blows...

 

2 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Oh Michael Ventrice from Twitter said week 3 didn't look so good showing some warm air up the east coast. 

:weenie: 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cold run and that look at D10 and what it would entail afterwards is nice. Favorable EPO, pumping the PNA, good NAO ie not on roids. While it’s not disrobing material yet...it’s the precursor with drinking games. 

That's an example of an airmass we can work with. Not the 534-540 thickness stuff that would struggle in a lot of areas below 1000ft.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's an example of an airmass we can work with. Not the 534-540 thickness stuff that would struggle in a lot of areas below 1000ft.

I'm heading to BUF Thanksgiving week.  I feel like we picked a good time to go from the looks of things depending on your point of view lol.  Not sure the gf would agree.  The nao block is just too strong to be favorable for Newfoundland this time of year when cold anomalies are most important.  

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's an example of an airmass we can work with. Not the 534-540 thickness stuff that would struggle in a lot of areas below 1000ft.

Slow down there tiger. I haven’t finished the critical thickness chapter in my Becoming a Pro Met textbook yet.  

What do we need this time of year below 1k feet, DIT you are safe, to produce snow....522-528 at the very least? 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Slow down there tiger. I haven’t finished the critical thickness chapter in my Becoming a Pro Met textbook yet.  

What do we need this time of year below 1k feet, DIT you are safe, to produce snow....522-528 at the very least? 

There isn't some sort of textbook rule...I was more speaking to the fact that the 12z euro had some nice cold air..not the marginal stuff that can happen this time of year, especially with a block trying to recycle a borderline atmosphere. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Slow down there tiger. I haven’t finished the critical thickness chapter in my Becoming a Pro Met textbook yet.  

What do we need this time of year below 1k feet, DIT you are safe, to produce snow....522-528 at the very least? 

Well it would depend on the sounding.  

In a lot of SWFE the thicknesses are quite high because of warmth aloft but it's snowing at 22F right to the ocean with low level cold.  

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Well it would depend on the sounding.  

In a lot of SWFE the thicknesses are quite high because of warmth aloft but it's snowing at 22F right to the ocean with low level cold.  

Yeah I did not want to confuse him..lol, but in general you probably want the lower levels quite cold..esp on the coast. I think in the big veteran's day 87 storm it was like -4C at 925 or something like that. 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There isn't some sort of textbook rule...I was more speaking to the fact that the 12z euro had some nice cold air..not the marginal stuff that can happen this time of year, especially with a block trying to recycle a borderline atmosphere. 

Right, recycling 540 wouldn’t cut it. Gotchya.

 

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That air mass is no good once it goes over hazeys head and comes back, Just check with CAR in 2010 when we had the retro cluster fuk.

If cold enough it could...I don't mean to speak that we can't get anything...but I usually like to see a bit more of a colder atmosphere this time of year. Especially in my hood.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If cold enough it could...I don't mean to speak that we can't get anything...but I usually like to see a bit more of a colder atmosphere this time of year. Especially in my hood.

Sure it could, But this time of year with it being marginal, It would be tough.

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It's really rather remarkable.  

These teleconnectors could not be more saddled with suggestion for bigger atmospheric events, yet ... it's baffling watching run after run after run of these operational models almost more than figuratively going out of their way to tamp down anything from happening at all. I really wonder why that is.. I've noticed this pattern: as soon as they get close, the next run tries to even go zonal of all diametric bird flips - 

I don't get see the EPS derived teleconnectors - if fact, I wonder if the ECMWF folk even calculate those indexes based upon the EPS cluster at all.  Obviously...we can look at those geographical regions and get a sense of what they are. Still, it would be nice to see an actually f'n EPO number based on the g-damn EPS.  C-suckers! 

The beauty of it?  It doesn't matter - the GEFs derived numbers are not terrible performing. 

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