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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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11 minutes ago, BRSno said:

Oh man looking like an awesome Turkey day week shaping up weather wise. Figures I'll be in Europe for all of it. 

 I don't know, climo and not the most ideal cold set up to our north I would remain quite reserved.   I have not looked at models today but I did not really see robust cold high-pressure accompanying the storm chances in the long range.

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 The most likely scenario is that ski country gets off to a good start over the next few weeks.

I think so. It will take a good supply of cold air to make our chances viable. Obviously interior has the best shot...but I think we fall a bit short over the next 10-12 days or so. We shall see. I'm just happy to see a winter-like pattern for once in November. It's been a long time. 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

People like posts that are legit. This cautious it doesn’t snow in November attitude is silly. It has , does and with all the cold HP up north progged to sit there and push south from time to time and storms nearby.. well that equates to snow chances, right to the SE coast of SNE

Push this south.  :weenie:

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You're usually a voice of reason. Now, full on bun salutes from you. 

Nothing wrong with tracking. it’s about that time. If the pattern didn’t look good I wouldn’t be so optimistic. The caveats apply but that doesn’t mean we cant fight it off as if it’s late Sep climo. 

I’m hyped about the winter. Learned more about the QBO and solar mins lately, and I like what I read on the internet, so it has to be true. Winter is coming. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nothing wrong with tracking. it’s about that time. If the pattern didn’t look good I wouldn’t be so optimistic. The caveats apply but that doesn’t mean we cant fight it off as if it’s late Sep climo. 

I would feel a lot better if this were a month from now. But anyone can whack..I mean track away. Ideally you would get one of these deep troughs the European has advertised and take advantage of nice, fresh cold.

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33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

People like posts that are legit. This cautious it doesn’t snow in November attitude is silly. It has , does and with all the cold HP up north progged to sit there and push south from time to time and storms nearby.. well that equates to snow chances, right to the SE coast of SNE

A week ago you were saying no snow till late second half.  

 

Now it's snowy and wintry to the coast coming up.  

 

Nobody here said it cant or won't snow in November.  But if you're talking about being Legit, the fact is lots still has to go right to get accumulating snow in November.    Sure it can happen...but going around saying Snowy and snow to the coast is not being Legit...and you know that.  

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would feel a lot better if this were a month from now. But anyone can whack..I mean track away. Ideally you would get one of these deep troughs the European has advertised and take advantage of nice, fresh cold.

But seiously. Wouldn’t a cooler look to next wknd essentially help sharpen the trough and allow the shortwaves behind it to dig deeper? It looks like there is action diving into the central US with the block not allowing room to escape. Yea, if it was dec 20th instead, it’s weenie paradise, but thats besides the point. Lets focus on the present and the potential good pattern ahead....and try to cash in if we can. I know folks in the north should be thinking this way. 

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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just took a look at the 12z GFS. Is it bad or alarming that the pv looks like it is over western Alaska towards end if run? Is that the one eyed pig? Just trying to learn.

The WPO is constantly flooded with above heights so any one eyed monster over AK looks transitional and short lived. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But seiously. Wouldn’t a cooler look to next wknd essentially help sharpen the trough and allow the shortwaves behind it to dig deeper? It looks like there is action diving into the central US with the block not allowing room to escape. Yea, if it was dec 20th instead, it’s weenie paradise, but thats besides the point. Lets focus on the present and the potential good pattern ahead....and try to cash in if we can. I know folks in the north should be thinking this way. 

At the end of the GFS run, there looks to be a pretty good low about to take off.  But that kind of goes along with what I was saying about a deep trough. I wouldn't call the GFS, fresh cold air..but that's a nice look with blocking causing that trough to sharpen...along with some ammunition in the chamber. You have a nice ridge out west too. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The WPO is constantly flooded with above heights so any one eyed monster over AK looks transitional and short lived. 

Yeah earlier there was some lower heights, but the models have flagged lower heights in that area too. I mentioned several days ago, that the blocking keeps the pattern interesting. Otherwise, a +NAO would be rather mild here I think. The ensembles also backs up the trough in the GOAK enough to pop a +PNA.

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah earlier there was some lower heights, but the models have flagged lower heights in that area too. I mentioned several days ago, that the blocking keeps the pattern interesting. Otherwise, a +NAO would be rather mild here I think. The ensembles also backs up the trough in the GOAK enough to pop a +PNA.

I heard that the Euro Weeklies from last night didn't look good for week 3?. Uncertainty seems to be growing. 

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