Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Lol, That 12z GFS run, Maybe we can get one of those to thread the needle for a wintry event, Like the look and it being an active period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Below normal temperatures and stormy pattern in the extended. Wish it was a month later. Yea, 2 weeks would make a difference. Just hope this doesn’t break the block and crap on the ATL for Dec lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe for Canada. What's it looking for Thanksgiving week? I saw something on TV about the Euro showing a big 1-2 week arctic shot for that week and the week after that with a Greenland block in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Below normal temperatures and stormy pattern in the extended. Wish it was a month later. Yup.... too bad it’s too soon here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, Paragon said: What's it looking for Thanksgiving week? I saw something on TV about the Euro showing a big 1-2 week arctic shot for that week and the week after that with a Greenland block in place. It could be a stormy week given the hemispheric pattern, but I'd be foolish to dive into details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 LOL GFS, that has to be one of the most ass backwards runs in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: It could be a stormy week given the hemispheric pattern, but I'd be foolish to dive into details. Right now we're focused on this arctic shot, I see eastern Long Island is going to be very close to single digits Sunday morning (KFOK) I wonder if Toms River KMJX and Martha's Vineyard KMVY will be also, they are also prime radiational cooling spots! Interior areas upstate will go below zero! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Massive block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Too bad that GFS look wasn't in December...we'd prob have insane snow from that...but maybe we can get really lucky this month. Pretty skeptical though...given how early it is. You typically want a set list of ingredients for a good November snowfall (outside of the mountains)...and one of them that would be missing is fresh arctic cold. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but you lose all your wiggle room when you're playing with -2C or -3C 850 temps this early. Interior with some elevation would obviously help in any threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Too bad that GFS look wasn't in December...we'd prob have insane snow from that...but maybe we can get really lucky this month. Pretty skeptical though...given how early it is. You typically want a set list of ingredients for a good November snowfall (outside of the mountains)...and one of them that would be missing is fresh arctic cold. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but you lose all your wiggle room when you're playing with -2C or -3C 850 temps this early. Interior with some elevation would obviously help in any threat. Yeah that's why I mentioned the caveat the other day. I hope people aren't automatically assuming snow with a block like that. It's still quite early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Ha, You know some are though..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 That snapshot Anthony showed is for two weeks from now...two weeks later in November is a big deal...climo a lot more on our side in 2 weeks than it is today....that could help a bit more. But as you say it's still quite early no doubt, so all the negatives are applied for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Just now, WinterWolf said: That snapshot Anthony showed is for two weeks from now...two weeks later in November is a big deal...climo a lot more on our side in 2 weeks than it is today....that could help a bit more. But as you say it's still quite early no doubt, so all the negatives are applied for sure. Instead of a 42F rain it's 37F rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That snapshot Anthony showed is for two weeks from now...two weeks later in November is a big deal...climo a lot more on our side in 2 weeks than it is today....that could help a bit more. But as you say it's still quite early no doubt, so all the negatives are applied for sure. Arctic shots will help knock down the SSTs anyway, even if no storm results. So going forward it's a good thing, SSTs are still crazy warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Instead of a 42F rain it's 37F rain. You're Right. Well, we can always hope.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Instead of a 42F rain it's 37F rain. Well to be fair, I was wondering what it would be like in the Poconos, because that week I plan to be up there (near Mt Pocono, about 2000 ft elevation). I was wondering if it looks like a strong possibility that it'd be raining on Long Island and snowing up there. That's going to be an issue if it happens. You still looking at a milder than normal December with not much blocking to speak of, Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Instead of a 42F rain it's 37F rain. Unless we line everything up.... it ain’t going to snow. I don’t care how strong the blocking is. It showed up 6 weeks early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That snapshot Anthony showed is for two weeks from now...two weeks later in November is a big deal...climo a lot more on our side in 2 weeks than it is today....that could help a bit more. But as you say it's still quite early no doubt, so all the negatives are applied for sure. I was taking into account that it was 2 weeks from now. 11/20-11/25 is still pretty early...it's better than 11/10, but you still need a lot going right. Just look at the climo of snowfalls more than 6" for dates before 11/25....even for ORH. It's not that easy. It's doable, but I'd probably not really get that into it until there's actually some guidance that screams snowstorm and it's inside 4 days. Not saying you are calling for snowstorms, but just in general for everyone on here, I think expectations should be tempered. I'll say that it is a good sign we're already seeing early blocking...even if it's wave-breaking. It shows it can be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Unless we line everything up.... it ain’t going to snow. I don’t care how strong the blocking is. It showed up 6 weeks early Good points. It all lined up in 2011 in October...it can certainly do it a month later. But you're point is taken and reasonable, but I wouldn't say it's 6 weeks early, maybe only 3 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was taking into account that it was 2 weeks from now. 11/20-11/25 is still pretty early...it's better than 11/10, but you still need a lot going right. Just look at the climo of snowfalls more than 6" for dates before 11/25....even for ORH. It's not that easy. It's doable, but I'd probably not really get that into it until there's actually some guidance that screams snowstorm and it's inside 4 days. Not saying you are calling for snowstorms, but just in general for everyone on here, I think expectations should be tempered. I'll say that it is a good sign we're already seeing early blocking...even if it's wave-breaking. It shows it can be done. Only one I can think of for this area (during Thanksgiving week), Will, is Thanksgiving 1989- and what a snowfall it was- right down into South Jersey! 8-10 inches for LI and S NJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Good points. It all lined up in 2011 in October...it can certainly do it a month later. But you're point is taken and reasonable, but I wouldn't say it's 6 weeks early, maybe only 3 or so. Also happened in early November right after Sandy in 2012. Got 8 inches of snow on Long Island. Other one I can think of is Vet Day 1987 and of course Thanksgiving 1989. Also pre-Thanksgiving 1995 before our big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was taking into account that it was 2 weeks from now. 11/20-11/25 is still pretty early...it's better than 11/10, but you still need a lot going right. Just look at the climo of snowfalls more than 6" for dates before 11/25....even for ORH. It's not that easy. It's doable, but I'd probably not really get that into it until there's actually some guidance that screams snowstorm and it's inside 4 days. Not saying you are calling for snowstorms, but just in general for everyone on here, I think expectations should be tempered. I'll say that it is a good sign we're already seeing early blocking...even if it's wave-breaking. It shows it can be done. Oh absolutely correct, and I agree. Not thinking it's going to be this big SNOWY time like some are...but the modeling is nice to look at, but all caveats apply at this juncture for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Regardless, it’s a good sign that a big winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Also happened in early November right after Sandy in 2012. Got 8 inches of snow on Long Island. Other one I can think of is Vet Day 1987 and of course Thanksgiving 1989. Also pre-Thanksgiving 1995 before our big winter. Yup 2012 after Sandy in Early November, that was a good storm here as well. I remember thanksgiving 89 very well..did very good in that too. So it happens and will again, just don't know if it will this year? Nice to see modeling showing some action and a nice looking pattern...who knows if it produces anything at all?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Thanksgiving 2002 even had 9 inches of snow at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 This pattern should yield 1-2 snow events.. and at least 1 right to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said: Thanksgiving 2002 even had 9 inches of snow at BDL. I remember 2002 also..but I didn't receive nine inches, more like 4 or so....but nonetheless had to shovel for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Thinking about booking a short trip around the 15th of December to get a ski day in before the holidays. I cannot find the previous opening days for several mountains I’m looking at. Is that info anywhere? Looking at a place like Cranmore, a step up from king pine his year for my fiancé. Do folks thing they will be open by that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 There’s a ski thread Flizzy. https://www.onthesnow.com/northeast/projected-openings.html This thread is for serious winter talk only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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